On the evening of 8 November, all eyes in Syria were riveted on Washington, eager to learn who would be the next US president. Many believe the new president will hold the keys to a solution to the Syrian crisis, just as they believe that outgoing US President Barack Obama held the keys to extending it. Although, many Syrians preferred Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton on the basis of her statements against the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in Damascus, they were not stunned by the victory of Republican Donald Trump, consoling themselves with the thought that he will certainly be tough on the Syrian regime. During his two terms in the White House, many Syrians believe Obama was detrimental to the revolutionary cause in Syria. Many are convinced that he obstructed a solution, indulged the Russians, refused to support the revolution, was indifferent to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Syrians and appeased the regime. Over the past year, or since the presidential campaigns began in the US, many Syrians were eagerly looking forward to the end of Obama's term. They were certain that whoever came next would be better, if only because no policy could be worse for the Syrian Revolution. After the news of Trump's victory, Hadhifa Dahman, a political activist from Aleppo, said that the “besieged inhabitants of the city followed the elections and hoped for Trump because he is frank, unlike Obama. His support for the Al-Assad regime will at least be open, unlike the secret support Obama gave the regime and better than the middle-of-the-line approach that Clinton would have adopted.” “Syrian people prefer to know who their allies are and who Al-Assad's are,” Dahman said. To many people's surprise, Anas Al-Abdah, president of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, congratulated Trump on his election. “He could give fresh impetus to efforts to end the war that has been continuing in Syria for the last six years,” he said. Many Syrian opposition figures felt that such congratulatory remarks were premature, however. Trump has not even declared what his policies are, and his previously stated positions did not favour the Syrian opposition, giving few grounds for Al-Abdah's optimism, they believe. In an interview with the US newspaper the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) after the elections, Trump suggested that he would stop backing the rebels fighting the Al-Assad regime because “we have no idea who these people are.” Instead, he would shift support to a greater focus on the fight against the Islamic State (IS) group, to him more important than the fight against the Al-Assad regime. Trump said that fighting the Al-Assad regime would bring the US onto a collision course with Russia. “My attitude was you're fighting Syria, Syria is fighting ISIS, and you have to get rid of ISIS. Russia is now totally aligned with Syria, and now you have Iran, which is becoming powerful, because of us, is aligned with Syria… Now we're backing rebels against Syria, and we have no idea who these people are.” If the US attacks Al-Assad, Trump told the WSJ, “we end up fighting Russia, fighting Syria.” But researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington and adviser to the UNDP on Syria Essam Al-Khafaji said that “the president of the Syrian National Coalition should not be so optimistic regarding Trump,” in an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly. “He should not say that he is convinced that Trump will be more supportive of the Syrian people than his predecessor Obama. The fact is that either he is deluding himself or he thinks that flirting with Trump will soften Trump's stances.” “Trump has a different way of thinking. This will change the dynamics in Syria for sure, but that change will be in a more negative direction. It might even make the Syrian opposition miss the Obama era because if Obama let down the Syrian people at least he took stances against the Al-Assad regime,” Al-Khafaji said. “Trump, as a populist, is not going to bother with moderate Syrian allies or secularists fighting for a democratic Syria. He hasn't said a single word expressing his support for the Syrian people or the moderate opposition in the fight against Al-Assad. Syria and Iraq are merely arenas for the fight against the enemy of US national security. If the inhabitants of these countries have to be wiped out in order to defeat Daesh and the Al-Nusra Front, then so be it. He made his position clear during his campaign: Destruction followed by the arrival of US oil companies to rebuild what was destroyed.” Nevertheless, many Syrian opposition members believe that regardless of Trump's party affiliation, his policy on Syria will not differ essentially from that of Obama over the past five-and-a-half years. US policy is shaped by large institutions, not individuals, they say, and by decision-making centres, not the person of the president. The policy of the Obama administration will continue into the Trump era, and all that might change is the means. However, Syrian National Coalition member Fayez Sara said Syrians had nothing to lose in pinning their hopes on Trump. “Trump's remarks on his possible domestic and foreign policies were made in the framework of an electoral battle. A lot of what is said then is not said at other times and places. Trump has stated that his foreign policy in Syria will be based on partnerships, not conflicts. If that framework is applied, Trump's policy on the Syrian question will be better than that of his predecessor Obama, when the Americans relinquished their role,” Sara said. “The Americans turned the question over to Russia in spite of the fact that the latter is a party in the Syrian question. It is the protector of the Al-Assad regime and the power that is preventing his fall and working to rehabilitate him and reinstate him in the international community after all the crimes he has committed and continues to commit against the Syrian people.” “On the other hand, the Syrian opposition should not bank on a different US policy under Trump, especially after all their hopes in Obama over the past six years. What they need to do is to work to ensure better US policy in the Trump era and the return of a just and effective American role. If they do not succeed, they will have lost nothing and will be no worse off than they were during the Obama era,” he added. According to Al-Khafaji, in the event of worse US policies under Trump, the Syrian opposition should offer concessions. “The leaders of the secularist Syrian opposition should begin to contemplate more realistic policies. Even if the grounds for optimism are virtually non-existent, they should try to salvage what they can,” he said. “They should think of what concessions they can offer, so as not to put an end to the project to build a Syria where the rule of law prevails even if this does not eliminate the police state and its agencies of repression. I hope that the opportunity has not been lost to avoid the fate of their Iraqi brothers who fought the former Baath Party regime and then ended up in exile. When the [Saddam Hussein] regime fell, the Islamists engulfed the whole political space in Iraq.” Many Syrian opposition members predict that Moscow will not back down on its positions on Syria and will continue to support the Syrian regime to promote Russian interests in the region. They also believe that Russia has left the Iraqi crisis to the Americans in exchange for the US's non-intervention in Syria, and they argue that since Trump is on friendly terms with Moscow, the latter will coordinate with him at least in order to help keep face strategically. Yet, Trump has stated that he is determined to review the nuclear deal with Iran, and he has underscored the value of Washington's partnership with Turkey. These two factors work in favour of the Syrian opposition. However, he has not concealed his negative attitudes towards the Gulf countries, which could impact negatively on the Syrian opposition as this is strongly supported by those countries. At the international level, Trump seems closer to Russia than he is to the EU and NATO, which could work against greater European input into a solution to the Syrian crisis. But Trump's statements and those of this team are contradictory, especially with regard to the Syrian question, even if they generally seem opposed to the Syrian opposition. This complicates matters further for the opposition as it does not know what to expect. There have been no signs of tension from the regime in Damascus, which appears indifferent to the Trump victory and the changes this might bring. Al-Assad relies for his support on Russia or, more accurately, Russia has become the major determinant of the policy of the Syrian regime. Trump's Syrian policy will likely become more explicit after he is sworn in as president in January and after his first summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Western observers predict that Trump will turn Syria over to Russia in exchange for clipping Iran's wings and those of Hizbullah. Russia may agree to this, as it does not see the Iranian intervention in Syria as an advantage. This could therefore be one development that would work in favour of the Syrian opposition, and its leaders should consider it as a realistic hypothesis on which to base their plans. The opposition can also work on the premise that Trump is a Republican Party member and that that Party will try to pressure him to prioritise the implementation of its agenda. At the same time, the opposition should also bear in mind that Trump's policies are contingent on the powers of other institutions, such as Congress, the Pentagon and the intelligence agencies in the US, all of which could limit Trump's unpredictable behaviour. The picture should become clearer in the coming weeks, especially once the names of Trump's advisers are known. Given the information available so far, the picture does not look encouraging for the Syrian cause. But the Syrian people still hope that some positive change in the US position will lead them to the end of the war and a settlement.
