When Iraqi forces briefly paused in their advance on one of the battlefronts in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul last week, some media outlets suggested that the Iraqi soldiers were facing problems in the campaign to recapture the city from Islamic State (IS) militants. The media speculations about a slowdown in the campaign were not unwarranted. They surfaced after spokesman for the US-led coalition fighting in Iraq John Dorrian told reporters that “in some areas” the Iraqi security forces were “pausing.” Though Dorrian later clarified that the “repositioning” was just “some back clearing,” Iraqi generals were quick to deny any pause and insisted that the campaign against IS in Mosul was on schedule and that their forces were keeping up a steady momentum in the battle. Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook also confirmed that the campaign, which has been receiving strong backing from the Obama administration, was “on track and moving forward according to plan”. The controversy, however, has underlined the importance of the battle for Mosul, which many analysts expect to be the most strategically decisive battle in the war to eliminate IS's self-declared caliphate and defeat the jihadist organisation. With scepticism rising over political plans for the post-IS era, including efforts to end Iraq's lingering sectarian conflicts, analysts are now focusing on the combat conditions of the Iraqi forces in order to assess how the military campaign is going. In many ways, the conduct of the offensive to regain Mosul, a city of strategic national and regional importance, is likely to have a great impact on Iraqi and regional stakeholders looking for a role in Mosul in the day after its liberation from IS. The offensive to recapture Mosul began on 17 October with air support from the US-led coalition with the strategic objective of liberating Iraq's second-largest city and the last stronghold of the IS militants. Around 100,000 men in a Baghdad government-led coalition have been taking part in the major advance towards Mosul, taking back vast swathes of territory from IS control village by village along the way. The two-pronged attack started with government forces, Shia-led Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and Kurdish Peshmergas encircling the city which is the provincial capital of Nineveh province and then attempting to oust over 6,000 IS militants. During the first phase of the operation, the combined forces made significant gains in taking scores of neighbourhoods along the road to central Mosul, mostly on the eastern flank close to the city's periphery. Last week, units of the 9th Armoured Division backed by special counter-terrorism forces pushed into densely populated outer neighbourhoods of the eastern half of Mosul, slicing through defensive lines and ambushes by the militants. Their key goal was to recapture this part of the city as quickly as possible and to secure the routes to the left bank of the River Tigris before taking four bridges to secure routes to the western side of Mosul where the main battle with IS militants is expected. By the third week of the offensive the Iraqi army had liberated several districts in the eastern part of the city of Mosul, while making headway towards the rest of the militants' deeply-embedded positions on the eastern front. On the southern and western fronts, soldiers of the army's 15th Division, Federal Police Forces and PMF units assigned the task of advancing from this flank have made significant breakthroughs, taking the town of Hamam Al-Alil some 20 km from the city centre. Shia-led PMF units say they have cut off an avenue of retreat for IS fighters remaining in the city towards Syria. They have also continued their advance towards the town of Tal Afar, a largely ethnic Turkmen town and IS bastion about 45 km west of Mosul. With the initial operations largely successful, questions have been raised about the second phase of the offensive, which is to storm the western part of Mosul and start uprooting IS resistance. Analysts have warned that entering Mosul will likely trigger the fiercest fighting seen yet and that the battle is expected to turn into costly urban warfare that will be fought street by street or even building by building. Thus far, IS militants have shown that they will not be leaving without putting up a tough fight to repel the advancing Iraqi troops. Last week, their leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi called on his supporters and the population of Mosul to stand firm and to “wreak havoc” on the Iraqi forces' ranks. Despite the spectacular Iraqi security forces' attacks, IS has had the best part of two years to prepare for the offensive. Satellite images show that multi-layered defences have been built in the sprawling city of some 1.5 million people. One of the counter-attack strategies which has been used by the militants is fighting back with cars carrying suicide bombers speeding towards Iraqi government forces positions or their armoured vehicles and tanks. Snipers, roadside bombs, booby traps and ambushes have been widely used to hamper the advances of the Iraqi troops as they approached the city. The militants have also built a network of tunnels rigged with powerful explosives and set up to hinder the movement of the Iraqi soldiers into the heart of the city. In order to defend Mosul from the advancing Iraqi forces, retreating IS fighters have set oil wells in Mosul's vicinity ablaze and built trenches and earth embankments around many parts of the city. In addition, IS has resorted to diversionary attacks in several towns in the region, most significantly in oil-rich Kirkuk and towns liberated from IS, in order to force the government to withdraw some of its attacking forces from Mosul. On Friday, IS fighters carried out a lightening raid on Iraqi security forces in Shirqat south of Mosul, killing seven and wounding many other soldiers. IS's defensive tactics include taking civilians hostage as human shields. The militants are believed to be holding hundreds of thousands of people still trapped in Mosul and have forced people from the countryside into the city to make air strikes and artillery bombardment difficult. By any military calculus, this can hardly be a military achievement by the jihadist group, as some Western pundits and Arab media have tried to suggest by exaggerating cracks in the Iraqi forces' planning, preparation and combat preparedness. The truth is, IS's militants are facing a formidable force of a professional US-backed army and dedicated militias from four fronts and it is unlikely that they can hold the city for long. However, IS knows that the fall of Mosul will signal its defeat in Iraq, and it is set to delay that moment for as long as it can. No one doubts that the real battle for the heart of the city will most likely be bloody and costly, especially if diehard militants decide to fight to the death to turn Mosul into a jihadist Masada. On the other hand, the Iraqi forces have not only made quick advances in the initial phases of the Mosul offensive on multiple fronts, but also, and more importantly, their offensive looks as if it has preserved its energy as they continue their bold dash towards the city centre. Indeed, the major successes of the combined Iraqi forces in Mosul have showed that IS has bitten off more than it can chew despite the hype about its “unprecedented” stiff resistance, especially from its suicide bombers and brutal ambushes. Nevertheless, like in the earlier battle of Fallujah, another IS stronghold which was liberated in the summer, there will be ups and downs in the campaign to liberate Mosul as illustrated in the fight to plunge deep into the city's eastern neighbourhoods. The Iraqi forces still have a steep hill to climb before they will be able to drive the militants out of the city. As reports from the frontlines indicate, the current phase highlights the challenges ahead for the Iraqi forces as they press into densely populated areas deeper inside Mosul. Politically, the battle of Mosul is the most important development in Iraq's war against IS thus far. The Iraqi security forces have recaptured most of the territory seized by IS in its surprising advances in mid-2014, but Mosul remains the ultimate prize in delivering a lasting defeat to the organisation. The battle for Mosul is a clash of ideologies, competing geopolitical interests and sectarian agendas that have pitted Iraqi and regional players against each other. This is why ultimate victory in the battle for the city will remain a balancing act between these rivals that the Iraqi Shia-led government should act hard to maintain. In order to achieve this, the Baghdad government must stay committed to working with all Iraqis to end the mischief that gave rise to IS and to building a stable, prosperous and egalitarian Iraq for all its citizens.
