The overwhelming state of chaos in this region threatens repercussions that will not only endanger the peoples of this region but also the security and stability of the entire international order. The causes and symptoms of this state are numerous. Foremost among them are the corruption and despotism of the ruling regimes in this region; the fragmentation of political, intellectual and social elites and their inability to reach a consensus over concepts and institutional mechanisms for the peaceful rotation of authority; the aggravation of sectarian, ethnic and tribal conflicts to the point where it has become difficult to build states or societies that are socially coherent and politically and militarily stable; the rise and spread of terrorist groups that use religion and violence as means not only to fight ruling regimes but to impose their views on all who differ with their political and ideological ideas; intensive foreign intervention in domestic affairs and the success of the powers that dominate the international order in implanting an alien entity in the region, bringing to bear toward this end religious and ethnic myths and unconditional support for that entity regardless of its expansionist and racist policies. As the Middle East lies at the centre of the ancient world, it is no coincidence that it became the cradle of the oldest civilisations, the birthplace for the divinely revealed faiths and the source and focal point of the world's strongest empires. In spite of the religious and ethnic differences between the peoples of this region, most parts of this region had been subordinate to a great imperial entity of some sort, the Ottoman Empire being the last. With the collapse of this empire at the end of World War I, the link that had bound the peoples of this region crumbled and the seeds of anarchy were sown, a process that has reached a zenith today. The new maps that were drawn up for this region on the basis of the interests of the victorious parties in that war established geographical parties of political entities most of which seemed unequipped to develop into modern states or democratic governments as they lacked the necessary prerequisites for national cohesion and an overarching patriotic identity. In order to better appreciate the fuller dimensions of the comprehensive chaos that has gripped the Middle East it is useful to identify three regional zones that have interacted in ways that give rise to this condition. Firstly, there is the Arab zone consisting of 21 Arabic speaking states bound by a single institutional framework, the Arab League. Secondly, there is a broader zone consisting of the countries immediately bordering the Arab world, namely Iran, Turkey and Israel. Thirdly, there is the larger international zone that includes the world powers with vital interests in this region and that seek to control it. The most important powers here are the US, Russia and the EU. A brief look at the interplay within each of these three zones is sufficient to realise that the Arab one is the most fragile and most prone to self-destruction. This may be due to flaws in the management of the many contradictions and disparities between their societies and systems of government, or due to the inability of its constituent countries to deter outside regional and international parties from intervening in their domestic affairs. The Arab countries, which had once aspired to build a unified pan-Arab state, have never been more divided and at odds with each other than they are today. Although the citizens of some of the republics in this region managed to ignite a series of revolutions against long-entrenched corrupt and dictatorial regimes, and even succeeded in toppling some of the heads of these regimes, the revolutions quickly lost ground and either ceded way to counterrevolutions or paved the way to the emergence of failed states awash in sectarian strife, civil warfare and the proliferation of terrorist groups. As for the states that evaded the Arab Spring revolutions they are not much better off; they appear extremely drained and exhausted. It is, therefore, impossible to dispute the fact that the Arab world is passing through the worst phase ever in its history. Never before has it experienced this magnitude of destruction of homes, schools, hospitals, factories and fields, nor has it ever experienced these numbers of dead, wounded, refugees and displaced persons — the figures of which run into the tens of millions. More ominously, the Arab countries that are still relatively cohesive appear so self-absorbed in concern with their own domestic affairs that the Arab world has become akin to a ship without a captain or a feeble body without a mind capable of steering it and rescuing it from its plight. Within the second zone, we find a totally different picture. Iran, Turkey and Israel, in spite of their various domestic problems which differ from one case to the next, seem strong and cohesive. Each has their own project for becoming a major regional power and they possess the means and resources to extend their influence within the vacuum inside the Arab order. Israel understands that it is an unacceptable state in the region and, therefore, treats all its neighbours as current or potential enemies. Although it trusts only in its own strengths, particularly its military and technological ones, it simultaneously realises that its special relationship with the US is its sole safety net and the last refuge for the protection of its national security. At another level, Israel is perpetually ready to benefit from the fruits of Turkey's membership in NATO as well as from the opportunities that arise from the Sunni-Shia conflict, between Saudi Arabia and Iran above all, to engage in a Sunni alliance against Iran and in order to put paid to the Palestinian cause at the same time. Turkey, for its part, clearly seeks to penetrate the hearts and minds of the Arab peoples through its particular political and developmental model which, until recently, glimmered and inspired many. It is simultaneously trying to capitalise on its historical relations with the Arab world in the hopes of re-establishing itself as the heart of a revived “Islamic caliphate” in a modern or revised edition. Iran, meanwhile, is pursuing an expansionist project that relies on a number of strategies, the most important of which is to acquire the allegiance of Arab Shias who had been long ignored by ruling Arab regimes. Another strategy is to champion a radical drive that contrasts with the more moderate Turkish model and that calls for action against US and Israeli designs in the region and for support for the armed Palestinian resistance. Clearly, the regional projects of these three powers sometimes intersect, but it is equally clear that ultimately these projects can only be achieved on the remains of a defunct Arab order. Turning to the interplay within the third zone, for reasons of space I will confine myself here to the following observations: - US influence in this region will continue to recede in the foreseeable future regardless of the results of the forthcoming US presidential elections, although the most likely winner is Donald Trump. While the US bears the greatest share of responsibility for the current state of anarchy in the Middle East, which became endemic following the invasion and destruction of Iraq, it will not withdraw completely from the region because of the huge and diverse interests it still has here. Therefore, I do not anticipate any substantial change in the US's current policy approach toward the region which is to “drive from behind” and to make its allies pay a larger share of the bill for their protection. - Russian influence will continue to expand in the region in the foreseeable future, anchored in its military bases, which it has recently expanded in Syria. The failed military coup in Turkey helped pave the way for the gradual resuscitation of the relationship between Ankara and Moscow in spite of the fact that Russia's Syria policy remained unchanged. Still, Moscow will remain alert to all attempts to lure it into a quagmire similar to the American quagmire in Vietnam or the Soviet quagmire in Afghanistan. Therefore, I anticipate that Moscow and Washington will sustain their coordination in the hope of containing the crises of this region and prevent them from slipping out of control. - The EU will not be in a position to influence definitively and independently the regional interplay. It will therefore focus its efforts, firstly, on the search for ways to forestall terrorist operations that could target European capitals and, secondly, on halting the flow of refugees into European countries. - Perhaps coordinated international and regional efforts will succeed in inflicting a military defeat on the Islamic State group (IS) or in recovering most of the territory that IS controls in Syria and Iraq. However, this will not bring a definitive end to that terrorist organisation or to the terrorist phenomenon in general. Indeed, we cannot rule out the possibility of the rise of a new generation of even more violent and bloodthirsty terrorists unless the international community undertakes serious and concerted efforts to remedy the root causes of this phenomenon. I will conclude this condensed analysis with the assertion that the state of comprehensive anarchy that is currently afflicting the Middle East is likely to continue into the near or foreseeable future and that, perhaps, it has already begun to spiral out of control. No international or regional power has the ability to alter this condition on its own and there is no sign on the horizon of the emergence of an international coalition capable of containing it. As the Arab world is the party that will bear the brunt of the fallout and the costs of this condition, it has no choice but to wake up and get its act together if it does not want to end up in history's dustbin. The writer is professor of political science at Cairo University.
