Pundits try to visualise a way out of the political turmoil in Lebanon without excluding a civil war, writes Rasha Saad In the London-based daily Asharq Al-Awsat, Diana Mukkaled wrote that events in Lebanon undoubtedly provide an abundance of material that journalists, both local and foreign, strive to present. Mukkaled, who is a prominent Lebanese TV journalist, wrote that several films and documentaries have been produced while others are under way to chronicle what is taking place in the country. These tumultuous occurrences offer the makers of these films rich material to draw from with every passing day. Yet, for Mukkaled, most of these films are open-ended as events in Lebanon never cease to repeat themselves, the complications more perplexing than the prospects of a settlement or solution, making it difficult to imagine convenient endings to the current situation. According to Mukkaled, a civil war is not a far-fetched option. "Divisions in Lebanon carry no suggestion of impending solutions or clear-cut endings. Thus the media appropriation, with all its different types, remains open to all probabilities including civil strife," concludes Mukkaled. Also in Asharq Al-Awsat Turki Al-Hamad writes, "as long as national accord is absent in Lebanon and as long as there are powers that have interests in preserving the social or political chaos in Lebanon, all possibilities are open," Al-Hamad wrote. Amir Taheri in Asharq Al-Awsat warns, "war cloud hangs over Lebanon." He described Lebanon as "a jovial man who is, nonetheless, subject to occasional fits of madness leading to serious self-harm." He explained that even before it was put on the map as a nation, Lebanon had a chequered history in which periods of prolonged calm alternated with outbursts of violence. "There are signs that Lebanon may be heading for another round of self-inflicted harm exactly when everyone expected it to enter a long period of peace and reconstruction," Taheri warns. In an attempt to look for the possible "causes of this periodical Lebanese madness" Taheri pointed out to sectarian divisions as playing a crucial role in Lebanese politics. Taheri's argument is that these sectarian divisions prevent class-based politics, thus pushing secular ideologies onto the sidelines. "Because of the sectarian divide, every political dispute has the potential to be perceived as an existential threat to this or that community. If one community achieves greater power, the others feel their very foundations threatened," Taheri explained. Taheri also pointed out that the Lebanese system has another problem as it makes it possible for a coalition of just two sects to secure a potentially unshakable hold on power. "In other words, unlike normal democracies where the minority always has the hope and the chance of one day becoming the majority, a ruling coalition in Lebanon could, theoretically at least, keep its opponents out in the cold for as long as it wants," Taheri wrote. In "The Lebanese co-existence" Mohamed Ashab in the London-based pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat wrote that strengthening the state in Lebanon and reinforcing its influence was the natural way to achieve co-existence which can firmly face foreign dictates as a result of the country's weakness. Ashab praises the Lebanese people for having acted in a civilised manner in proposing the demands relevant for both the social classes and the sects, although they do not appear to be final goals. There are some paradoxes, Ashab says: during the Israeli war in the summer, the Lebanese people resisted by disrupting Israel's operations aimed at one group and by dealing with the conflict as if the target were the whole of Lebanon as a state -- legitimacy, institution and harmony. Now, however, adds Ashab, they seem less cautious in assimilating the repercussions of the conflict. Abdullah Iskandar also in Al-Hayat praises activity on the Lebanese street which has remained within the acceptable levels of peace, and may continue as such. A more serious threat, according to Iskandar, lies in protests that have begun to consolidate sectarian division which everyone is trying to deny exists. "In light of the existing regional situation, this division is preventing all sides from achieving any of their objectives since sectarian strife strips politics from its meaning and essence," Iskandar warns. Raghida Dergham in Al-Hayat referred to the significance of the US understanding of the intertwined nature of the thorny Middle East issues including Lebanon. According to Dergham there are some indications suggesting that US President George W Bush has grasped the nature of the intertwined issues of Iraq, Palestine, and Lebanon and the need for his administration to swiftly find solutions to these issues concurrently, but without necessarily linking them together. She pointed out that Jordanian King Abdullah, during his meeting with President Bush, highlighted the threat of civil war in Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq, and significantly contributed in broadening and deepening the understanding of the US regarding the prerequisites for dealing with what is currently taking place in the region. Dergham said the Arab message which Bush received via the Jordanian king was the following: Mistakes in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine will reduce the region and US regional interests to rubble. The ranks of moderation, both public and popular, will completely collapse and will not find space anywhere if the US administration yields to the diktat of extremism emanating from Tehran and addressed to, and at the expense of, the Arab arena. Losing control of the ongoing situation in Palestine, Lebanon, and Iraq will dangerously and irreversibly destabilise the region. On Lebanon, Bush made it clear that bartering with Lebanon was not an option and that he was not prepared to aid Syrian hegemony over Lebanon in exchange for Syria's assistance in Iraq, nor appease its desperation to be America's ally in anything as long as it insists on holding Lebanon. "It's a good thing the US president grasps the intertwined files of Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq. What is important, however, is that he understands the need to accelerate their progress in tandem and to immediately take the necessary measures in Palestine and Lebanon since Iraq is a longer story," Dergham wrote.
