In a premeditated move on the part of the new Turkish government, after the parliamentary elections of 1 November, a Turkish American-made F-16 downed a Russian Sukhoi-24 on Tuesday, 24 November. The Turks justified this highly reckless and irresponsible act by claiming that the Turkish command warned the pilots of the two fighter jets to exit Turkish airspace ten times before shooting it down. The Russians have a different version of the facts. The surviving pilot said after the crash that he had not received any warnings while flying a sortie against rebel strongholds in northern Syria. The second pilot was killed by pro-Turkish Turkmans in Syria. The surviving pilot was rescued in a joint operation by Syrian and Russian forces operating in that part of Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin said, on the same day the Sukhoi-24 was shot down, that the plane was destroyed by a Turkish missile while flying in Syrian airspace, roughly a mile from the Turkish border. There is no reason to refute the Russian version of the facts. In the meantime, President Putin went on to describe what happened in the following words: “Today's loss is linked to a stab in the back delivered to us by accomplices of terrorists.” He continued, “Today's tragic event will have serious consequences for Russian-Turkish relations.” The Russian reaction was swift on the political, military and economic fronts. The first significant act, from a strategic point of view, was the deployment of the most-advanced Russian air defence system, known as S-400, in Syria. Turkish fighters beware. On the political side, the Russian foreign minister cancelled a meeting with his Turkish counterpart, and the Turkish president, Recip Tayyib Erdogan, said in an interview with the French Channel France 24, aired on Friday, 27 November, that the Kremlin's switchboard has not returned calls he placed to talk to President Putin. Some Russian commentators and foreign policy experts said that they would not expect the Russian president to talk to or meet his Turkish counterpart before an official apology from Ankara. It is interesting to note that the Turkish president said Thursday, 26 November, that “Turkey may have warned the plane differently had it known it was a Russian plane.” In this context, The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Turkey complained in early October that at least one Russian warplane had violated Turkish airspace and that another Russian jet had locked its targeting radar on Turkish planes. The question is why, in case the Turkish story behind the shooting down of the Sukhoi-24 is true, the same precautions were not followed on 24 November? Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced on Thursday, 26 November, that Russia will impose wide-ranging sanctions on “foodstuffs, labour, and services from Turkish companies” in Russia. The sanctions, according to press reports, could bite into more than $30 billion in trade ties. Already, the Russian government has sent planes to evacuate Russian tourists from Turkey. Their numbers vary from 3.3 million to four million Russian tourists per year. A Washington Post reporter wrote that police in Russia have begun seizing Turkish products and deporting Turkish businessmen. While the Turkish president warned Russia on 26 November, saying, “We very sincerely recommend to Russia not to play with fire,” US President Barack Obama called the Turkish president the same day the Russian bomber was brought down and expressed US and NATO support for Turkey's right to defend its sovereignty. According to a White House readout of the call on 24 November, the two leaders agreed on the importance of “de-escalating the situation.” They recommended pursuing “arrangements to ensure that such incidents do not happen again.” The shooting down of the Russian plane is unprecedented in times of peace since the end of the Cold War. I do know how the Russians will take it but there could be retaliation. An escalation of a military nature, the timing and scale of which would be determined by the Russian president, cannot be excluded. The official who gave the final order to down the Russian warplane is the one who played with fire. You do not order the shooting down of warplanes belonging to a great power lightly, and particularly when they are involved in military operations. Turkey has embarked on a very serious course, trying to undercut Russia's strategic aims in Syria, which are diametrically opposed to those pursued by the Turkish government — not only in Syria, but also across the Middle East. From a Turkish point of view, Russia's military strikes against rebel forces, as well as Islamic State (IS), run counter to the policies of Erdogan in the region. Russia's military intervention in Syria, set within a larger Russian-Western understanding, or set of limited objectives centered around the complete annhilation of IS, could dash for good Erdogan's plans to dominate the Middle East as part of a revival of the defunct Ottoman Empire. Many analysts, within and outside Turkey, believe that Erdogan wants to act as if he is a new Ottoman sultan, fighting the Persians and subduing the Arabs while coexisting and protecting Western interests in the Middle East and the Gulf region. He is due to pay official visits to both Qatar and Saudi Arabia before the end of the year. Our reading of the downing of the Russian warplane should be seen in this overall context. The man is playing with fire. Someone should slow him down before the mayhem he has caused in the Middle East drags everyone into an undesired and unwanted confrontation. The writer is a former assistant to the foreign minister.
