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Russia in the Middle East
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 03 - 11 - 2015

Regardless of the change in its ideology and political system, Russia's foreign policy in general, and in the Middle East in particular, is a continuation of Soviet policy, asserting Russia's role as a major power with strategic interests in the region.
When President Vladimir Putin assumed power in 2000, he was determined to rebuild the Russian economy and military power to restore Russia's role in the world system and international relations. He acknowledged that the Cold War was over and even extended a hand of cooperation to the US and Europe.
In this framework, Putin moved to assert that Russia's role and interests should be respected. This policy was developed to call for multipolar world order, opposing the hegemony of one power. To develop this concept, Russia started to build multilateral relations with emerging regional powers, in particular China and Brazil. It was with these two countries that Russia established BRICS.
In is through this broader view that we can understand Russia's policy towards a strategic region like the Middle East. Today, Russia's engagement in Middle East issues is focussed on five unsettled issues: Iran, Syria, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the evolving Arab uprising since 2011, and the rise of radical Islamic groups.
As for Iran, Russia supported Iran's right to possess a nuclear reactor for peaceful purposes and refused to impose economic sanctions. However, Russia cooperated within P5+1 group to reach an acceptable final agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme.
Russia's policy towards the Syrian crisis seems its most assertive position since the Ukrainian crisis. From the beginning it supported the Bashar Al-Assad regime diplomatically and militarily, claiming that Syria's future must be decided by the Syrian people.
Russia's position towards the Syrian crisis seemed influenced by NATO intervention in the Libyan crisis, as Russia believed it was deceived and that it would not repeat this mistake.
The recent Russian military escalation in Syria has implications on international relations.
Regionally, the Russian involvement in Syria is seen by a number of regional powers — particularly Saudi Arabia — as supporting the Syrian regime, which the Saudis believe has no role in the future of Syria. In the US, the administration sees the Russian policy as a mistake that will further complicate the crisis.
It remains to be seen whether Russian involvement is aimed at defeating the so-called Islamic State (IS) group or, more simply, supporting the Syrian regime. In this context we have to mention the latest development, when Al-Assad travelled to Moscow on 21 October.
According to a subsequent Russian statement, “On the question of settlement in Syria, our position is that positive results in military operations will lay the base for then working out a long-term settlement based on a political process that involves all political forces, ethnic and religious groups. Ultimately, it is the Syrian people alone who must have the deciding voice here.”
According to Putin, “There are more than 2,000 fighters from Russia and ex-Soviet Republics in the territory of Syria; there is a threat of their return to Russia.” He added, “This is the most important thing that encourages us to provide assistance to [President] Assad.”
On the broader international level, Newsweek magazine, in a report on Putin's move and its motivation, concluded that it is related to the Ukraine crisis more than to the Middle East.
Henry Kissinger, in a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, called for a new American strategy in the Middle East. He argued that the Russian move in Syria is one of the consequences of the deterioration in the US role in establishing stability in the Middle East.
While supporting the Assad regime, Russia has also made political efforts to build a national consensus by inviting opposition powers to meet with representatives of the regime. Russia has combined its military move with a diplomatic process, telling Al-Assad when he was in Moscow that its military support should be paralleled with a political process that includes all Syrian fractions.
As for the Palestinian issue, while Russia is maintaining and even developing its relations with Israel, Russia is firm in supporting the right of the Palestinian people to establish a national state on the borders of June 1967.
Russia's role in the peace process developed within the International Quartet, a formula restricted by the mobilising role of the US, which explains Russia's early call to convene an international conference to determine the basis of an accepted settlement.
Some analysts are sceptical, saying that Russia has not exerted serious pressure on Israel to stop its settlement activities and other actions against the Palestinians, or start a meaningful peace process. On the contrary, as Netanyahu's recent visit to Moscow indicated, Russia is engaging Israel in combatting terrorism.
Within the broader Middle East, and given its reliance on gas and oil, the Gulf region — as an influential petroleum, economic, trade and financial power ⎯ looms large in Russia's strategy. The significant agreements reached, including on nuclear cooperation, during the visit of Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman to St Petersburg in June are a clear sign of Russia's efforts to build up its relations with Gulf countries.
As for Egypt, following 30 June 2013, Cairo adopted a new strategy of expanding its international relations. Russia was the first port of all. Similarly Saudi Arabia, after the agreement between Iran and the United States, and amid the concerns of Riyadh, also sought to expand its international relations, starting with Russia.
But the new Russian-Saudi equation is not without differences, the most recent being Russia's escalation in Syria, which the Saudis regard as supporting Al-Assad's regime, hence the visit of Crown Prince Salman to Moscow to discuss and contain these differences. Putin has, however, said that he is in agreement with a number of the countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, on the need to combat terrorism.
Understanding Russia's policy in the Middle East also requires an examination of its response to the Arab uprisings since 2011. Russia's initial response towards the uprisings was guarded, particularly when political Islamic groups started to dominate the political scene. Russia appeared concerned with the impact this might have on Islamic groups in Russia and its immediate neighbours.
Russia's response to the 30 June Revolution in Egypt represented a qualitative change. From the beginning, Russia's political leadership supported the aspirations of the Egyptian people, in contrast to the negative and hostile response of the US.
This explains subsequent developments in relations between Egypt and Russia, reflected in high-level visits, including ministers of foreign affairs and defence, which culminated in visits of the two presidents and produced significant agreements on cooperation in areas vital to the two countries.
The summit convened in Moscow in August between Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi and Putin was the fifth meeting between the two presidents. This is the first time in Russian foreign policy history that five summits have been convened within a year. It is known in international relations that summits represent a culmination of relations between two countries, particularly in relation to critical regional or international issues.
On bilateral relations, the summit reviewed what has been achieved on broad agreements struck at previous summits, and in ministerial meetings. On regional issues, the summit came at a critical time — particularly in the Syrian crisis and combatting IS. It was not surprising that Egypt expressed an understanding of the Russian escalation in Syria, expecting that it will contribute in defeating IS in Syria.
Egypt's relations with Russia, as developed since 30 June 2013, represent a model of relations between a major power and a regional power, based on mutual respect and mutual interest.
The writer is executive director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.


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