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The way forward in Egyptian-Saudi relations
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 29 - 07 - 2015

The Egyptian foreign minister flew to Saudi Arabia one week after the signing of the Vienna agreement, or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA), between the P5+1 and Iran. The visit also came in the wake of meetings held between Khaled Meshaal, head of the politburo of Hamas, and the Saudi monarch. The Hamas official was in Saudi Arabia to do the Umra pilgrimage, but Hamas used the occasion to give the impression that relations between the Saudi government and Hamas are on the mend, and as a corollary, also relations between the Saudis and the Muslim Brotherhood.
On the other hand, in the few weeks preceding the talks of the Egyptian official with King Salman, some Egyptian analysts and commentators talked about widening disagreements between Egypt and Saudi Arabia on a broad range of regional and Arab questions for instance, Syria and Yemen. In the meantime, some Saudi commentators have begun calling for a Sunni coalition that would include Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey to counter the growing Iranian role and influence in the Middle East, particularly after the signing of the JCPA that would propel Iran with force on the regional scene to the detriment of Arab interests, according to their points of view on the future of the Middle East and the Gulf region in the context of an expected rapprochement between the West and Iran.
The visit of the Egyptian foreign minister was his first after a Saudi-Qatari summit in Saudi Arabia last month, a summit that gave rise to speculation that Saudi policy towards the Muslim Brotherhood would change to boost their influence and to use them to fight Iran and Shia militias in the region. And to make matters worse, Mohamed Hassanein Heikal, the internationally- renowned Egyptian commentator and analyst predicted tough times for Saudi Arabia in the days to come. Comments that prompted a harsh reaction on the part of some Saudi writers. In sum, the visit of the Egyptian foreign minister and his talks in Saudi Arabia came at a time of mutual suspicion and persistent talk that relations between the two biggest Arab powers could be unravelling under the weight of fast-moving regional and Arab developments.
The Egyptian foreign minister met with the Saudi monarch, the crown prince and the deputy crown prince, as well as his Saudi counterpart. The two sides, in their public statements, stressed the strategic importance of Egyptian-Saudi relations, and the Egyptian official emphasised the concordance of views between the two countries on questions of mutual concern, for example the situation in Syria and ongoing developments in Yemen. As far as the Yemeni crisis is concerned, it should be noted in passing that the Egyptian position in this regard was questioned by some Saudi media with growing doubts on the part of the Saudis as to whether Egypt was not going alone in trying to bring the warring parties in Yemen to the negotiating table away from Saudi diplomacy.
But the situation in Syria and how to proceed in the search for a political solution has been subject to much conjecture. Whereas the Saudis are on record calling for the departure of President Bashar Al-Assad from power as a precondition for the implementation of the Geneva Communique of 30 June 2012, Egypt insists on leaving the future of the Syrian president to the Syrian people. The main concern from an Egyptian point of view is that a hasty departure of Al-Assad could lead to the breakup of Syria and the fall of state institutions, something that would definitely run counter to Egyptian interests. A strong and a unified Syria is a must from an Egyptian point of view. Egypt believes that a stable political regime in Damascus, friendly to Cairo and not an ally of Erdogan's Turkey or Qatar, is an absolute necessity to fight cross-border terrorism in the Arab world. Egypt would never accept a hostile regime in Syria.
It goes without saying that the threat perceptions of both Egypt and Saudi Arabia concerning the future role of Iran in the region are not identical. For the Saudis, the Iranian threat is almost existential, all the more so if American-Iranian relations witness positive changes after the lifting of sanctions in January. Egypt, on the other hand, and while it criticises the meddling of Tehran in Arab affairs, does not want to become party to any coalition of forces in the Middle East to confront Iran, unless Iran poses a direct threat to the security of Saudi Arabia, or any other Gulf country.
Given the fast-changing pace of events in the Middle East and the race for influence among regional powers, both Egypt and Saudi Arabia can't afford strains in their bilateral relations. The two Arab powers constitute a bedrock of stability, not only in the Middle East, but also in the Arab world. Neither the two of them nor the Arab system can afford the two drifting apart in these momentous times in the history of the Arab world. Hopefully, the visit of the Egyptian foreign minister to Saudi Arabia brought the two countries closer together on the fundamental questions facing the Middle East and the Arab world today. It is important that the two countries manage their differences diplomatically.
The writer is a former assistant to the foreign minister.


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