US President Barack Obama cut short his official visit to India ten days ago and flew to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on 27 January to offer his condolences on the death of King Abdullah, the late Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines, who passed away on 23 January. He was succeeded by his half-brother, King Salman bin Abdel Aziz, who received the US president upon arrival at the airport — a sign that relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States will remain strong under his watch. This was the second visit for President Obama to the Saudi capital in less than a year. On 29 March 2014, he met with King Abdullah at the latter's desert retreat. Their summit took place during a time of heightened tensions between Riyadh and Washington. Those following regional developments in the Middle East could feel the impact of the unfolding regional developments on Saudi-American relations over the previous three years. From a Saudi perspective, people wanted to understand the strategy of the Obama administration in the region, be it vis-à-vis Egypt, Syria or the Iranian nuclear file, and Western messages that, once outstanding issues were settled peacefully, Iran would be welcomed to resume its place and role in the Middle East and the Gulf region. In the case of Egypt, Riyadh and Washington had been following two conflicting positions. The former has been a staunch supporter of the 30 June Revolution in 2013, and the overthrow of the reign of the Muslim Brotherhood, while the latter imposed sanctions on the new political regime in Cairo. Both Saudi Arabia and Egypt considered the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organisation, while Washington did not hide its interest in reintegrating the Muslim Brotherhood in Egyptian politics. In Syria , Saudi Arabia and the United States have been members in the so-called “Friends of Syria” group, which has been a club for those countries whose declared objective was the overthrow of the Syrian regime by any means. The change of mind of President Obama back in September 2013, and his refusal to use force against the Syrian army after allegations that it had used chemical weapons against opposition groups in the previous month, caused not only consternation in Riyadh, but also disappointment. The impression that has grown out of US policies concerning Egypt and Syria is that of unpredictability, and accordingly, that the United States is an unreliable and an untrustworthy ally. And this has been a very serious realisation indeed. The desert summit smoothed over disagreements to a certain extent, but the factor that brought the two long-time allies closer once again was the capture of Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, by the Islamic State (IS) group on 10 June 2014, and the successive military successes by its forces in both Iraq and Syria. From last July to September there were no ground forces capable of stopping the advances of this terrorist organisation. To make matters worse, its leader, Abu Bakr Al-Bagdadi, declared the establishment of a Muslim Caliphate at the end of June 2014, and called on Muslims to join. Come September 2014, the militants were 40 kilometres away from Irbil, the capital of Iraq's Kurdish province, and had begun bombarding it in advance of a ground offensive. The US administration quickly called for an international coalition “to degrade and defeat” Daesh (the Islamic State), as the organisation is known, and on 11 September 2014, a ministerial meeting, at the level of foreign ministers, took place in Jeddah to form a coalition that includes 60 countries, including some Arab members —Egypt, Jordan and the six members states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Parallel to these grave developments, negotiations between the P5+1 group and Iran have been on track, and the deadline for the signing of an agreement has been extended for a third time to June 2015. Interestingly, an American official said three weeks ago that Iran would become “a successful regional player” if the negotiations lead to a peaceful solution. In his State of the Union address on 20 January, President Obama made it clear that he favours diplomacy, and warned that he will use his veto if the Republican-controlled Congress sends him a bill imposing sanctions on Iran. He added that all options remain on the table to prevent Iran from manufacturing nuclear weapons in case negotiations fail. The second Saudi-US summit in the span of less than a year, and this time with a new Saudi monarch, known for his attachment to strong relations between his country and the United States, would open a new chapter in strategic relations that has bound the two countries for the last seven decades. But questions still remain. The Middle East and the Arab world are destablised, as never before, and Saudi Arabia's security and long-term stability are under threat from the north and the south. The situation in Yemen deteriorated so fast that the Houthis now control Sanaa, and no central government was exercising power immediately after the death of King Abdullah. Many experts believe that Iran's reach has extended to the southern borders of Saudi Arabia. Three weeks before Abdullah's death an Iranian Foreign Ministry official boasted that Iran's presence is now felt in several Arab capitals. He was referring to Iranian influence in Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut, Manama and Sanaa. In other words, Saudi Arabia is being encircled by pro-Iranian regimes and political forces that could do harm to Saudi interests. Not to speak of Al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula operating in Yemen, and Daesh in Iraq and Syria. Two weeks before the death of King Abdullah, a group of Daesh terrorists attempted to infiltrate Saudi borders from Iraq. They were all killed. Will this attempt be the last one? I doubt it. I believe the summit at Riyadh at the end of January between King Salman and the US president dealt with crucial questions, including the fight against terrorism, the ongoing situation in Yemen, the Syrian crisis, the situation in Iraq and how to encourage the Iraqi government to fulfill its commitments to work for a unified Iraq. Another question that has cemented, historically, Saudi-US relations is international oil prices, which have suffered a spectacular fall over the last two months. This drop in the price of oil will save US consumers the hefty sum of $57 billion, which is good news for the American economy. President Obama was accompanied on his visit to Saudi Arabia by a high-level US delegation that included former US officials who worked in previous Republican and Democratic administrations, including former secretary of state James Baker and the former national security advisor to president George Bush, Sr. The message was of continuity in strategic relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Undoubtedly, the two allies have common threats to deal with. However, it remains to be seen how this strategic relationship will play out in the medium- and long-term in light of the fast-moving strategic landscape in the Middle East and the Gulf, and their respective positions regarding the role of Egypt in this regard. The writer is former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister.
