Gamal Essam El-Din explores the economic implications of President Mubarak's initiative to shed the country's socialist skin "Egypt has not seen such a large number of proposed amendments since 1980," President Hosni Mubarak told the nation on 26 December, in reference to his 34 suggested changes to the constitution. Topping the list are 14 articles dealing with three aspects of economic policy. The first group focuses on ridding the constitution of the socialist framework promulgated in the 1960s, including articles 1, 4, 5, 12 (first paragraph), 24, 30, 33, 37, 56 (second paragraph), 73 and 180 (first paragraph). The second batch aims to give the People's Assembly greater powers in scrutinising the annual state budget, as covered in articles 115 and 118. Finally, amending Article 146 proposes to strip the president of some of his absolute powers in issuing decisions regulating the performance of public utilities. Most economic observers agree that the first group of 11 articles is the most significant because, as Mubarak put it, they "not only aim to rid Egypt of socialist principles launched in the 1960s, but also seek to create a more favourable atmosphere for foreign investments." The chairman of parliament's Economic Affairs Committee, Mustafa El-Said, concurs that the suggested changes give a very positive message to investors that Egypt has become a full-fledged open market economy. El-Said indicated that "although the socialist policies of the 1960s were scrapped very early in the 1990s, they were not followed by a change in the constitution to reflect the government's official embrace of economic liberalism." Today, the time has come "to rid the constitution of these socialist foundations and make it more harmonious with the new market economy and liberal policies," he added. El-Said believes that by shedding its socialist skin, Egypt will officially eliminate the public sector's 45-year-old control over the economy. Besides, he continued, it paves the way for scrapping the archaic central planning system which has been in effect since 1961. "This system was imported from the Soviet Union to mobilise state resources and implement five-year development plans," explained the MP. Already early last year, the Ministry of Planning, which was in charge of implementing five-year development plans, was replaced by the more modern Ministry of Economic Development. The elimination of references to socialism, however, does not mean that the amendments will state that Egypt is a liberal economy. Mubarak declared that "the new amendments will not impose a certain economic ideology on the country. This is necessary so as to give future generations a free hand to streamline the economy, without a need to change the constitution many times." While the suggestions were being provisionally discussed in the People's Assembly and Shura Council two weeks ago, leftist MPs launched a scathing attack against them. "The elimination of socialism from the constitution will give the regime a licence to implement extreme liberal policies that favour business tycoons and strip the poor of guarantees for social justice," protested Mohamed Abdel-Aziz Shaaban, the sole MP from the leftist Tagammu Party. This licence, Shaaban believes, will propel the privatisation programme forward by leaps and bounds to include vital sectors which offer ordinary citizens a variety of subsidised services. Responding to Shaaban, Parliament Speaker Fathi Sorour insisted that, "ridding the constitution of socialist doctrines means relieving the nation of the government's control over the economy, rather than eliminating social justice." Sorour added that the final draft of the amendments will emphasise that, "Egypt is a democratic state based on national unity and social justice." Meanwhile, others on the left were not as opposed to the amendments. Salah Issa, a leading member of the Tagammu and editor of the weekly magazine Cairo, agrees that, "it is no longer logical for Egypt to have a constitution espousing socialism as its economic ideology, while its government is taking great strides towards economic liberalism." Issa even called for the elimination of the constitutional stipulation that half the seats in parliament be reserved to representatives of farmers and workers. "This provision belongs to the socialist heritage of the 1960s," he asserted. "I wonder why it is not on the list of proposed amendments." In addition to ridding Egypt of socialism, the amendments will provide parliament with greater powers to scrutinise the state budget. Right now, the constitution states that the People's Assembly may not make any change in the draft budget without seeking the prior approval of the government. It also emphasises that the draft of the budget should be submitted to the People's Assembly, at least two months before the beginning of the fiscal year. In his speech, Mubarak said he wants to amend Article 115 to authorise parliament, under certain guarantees, to change the budget without seeking the government's approval. The same article will also give parliament more time to discuss the budget. "Two months are not enough," according to Mubarak. "Expanding this period is necessary so that parliament can conduct serious debates over the budget." As for Article 118, Mubarak proposed that it should be amended so as to emphasise that the state's balance sheet be submitted to parliament in under one year, rather than "not exceeding one year", from the date of the end of the fiscal year. El-Said heaped praise on these two amendments adding that in their current forms, articles 115 and 118 do not give parliament complete powers to discuss the budget. "The new amendments will force the government not to take too long to send the balance sheet to the assembly for discussion," he said, adding that, "authorising parliament not to seek the government's approval before changing the budget is sure to increase its supervisory powers and make parliamentary debates of the budget more serious and transparent." Some economic observers, however, believe that the amendment to articles 115 and 118 are cosmetic. "These amendments could be of great value, only if Egypt has a democratically elected government," countered Ahmed El-Naggar, an economist with Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic and Political Studies. "I do not think that a parliament dominated by deputies belonging to the ruling National Democratic Party will be able to change the budget without discussing the matter first with a government belonging to the same party." El-Naggar also described the suggested amendment of Article 146, where the president would seek the opinion of the prime minister before issuing decisions regulating public utilities, as cosmetic. Currently, the president has absolute power in issuing these decisions. "It does not make a big difference whether or not the president consult the prime minister before issuing decisions on public utilities," said El-Naggar. He concluded that the prime minister would "never dare say no to the president, since it's the president who hires and fires prime ministers."
