Will the announcement of a new US Africa Command spur Cairo to reassess its relations with the continent? Dina Ezzat investigates Whether Cairo needs to strengthen its ties with the rest of Africa is hardly a new question. The debate has been rumbling in diplomatic and academic circles for over a decade, as Egypt slowly comes to terms with the fact that the glory days of Egyptian influence in Africa during the independence years of the 1950s and 1960s are over. The dilemma now is how to redraw Cairo's continental relations in a way compatible with the political realities of the post-Cold War world. Critics have regularly asserted that Egypt has lost Africa, or at best is in the process of loosing. While some officials have been willing to acknowledge a decline, others have taken the criticism on board without question, pointing out the problems Cairo has faced in recent years securing posts for its candidates in African organisations or in lobbying African states to support Egyptian candidates for international posts. It is a debate that has gained urgency following Washington's announcement that it is seeking to establish a new Africa Command (AFRICOM). On 6 February US President George W Bush announced his administration's determination to set up a unified US command for all American peace initiatives and military operations in Africa. AFRICOM, rather than being a new mechanism, will unite three pre-existing US military commands under a single umbrella. Bringing America's African operations under a unified command, argues the US military, will consolidate its ability to work across the continent. AFRICOM, said Bush, "will enhance our efforts to bring peace and security to the people of Africa and to promote our common goals of development, health, education, democracy and economic growth in Africa". It is planned that AFRICOM be fully operational by the end of fiscal year 2008, though a decision has yet to be made on where it will be headquartered. On Monday Djibouti, which already hosts a significant US military presence, offered to house the new operation. Ethiopia has also been in consultations with Washington. While many African countries appear keen to play host to AFRICOM, Egypt is out of the running. It is perceived by the US in an almost exclusively Middle Eastern, rather than African, context. Cairo's concerns, then, are less whether it is included in new US military plans for Africa than what the impact of the new set up will be on its strategic interest in a continent that offers water resources, economic opportunities and, in some cases, political allies. While officials are remaining tight-lipped over the new development, it is an open secret Cairo is closely examining Washington's military plans to assess how they will impact on Egyptian interests in Africa. According to Ambassador Ahmed Haggag, secretary-general of the Africa Society, Egypt is likely to find AFRICOM a mixed bag. On the one hand, he argues, it could bring more stability to the continent in terms of conflict prevention and management. It could also allow for wider Egyptian, American and African military cooperation. "Egypt, after all, maintains an intense and rewarding military cooperation with the US," he says. Provided that AFRICOM adopts policies capable of curtailing militant Islamic activities -- increasingly visible in Africa in recent years -- then Egypt, Haggag believes, stands to gain. The alternative scenario, with AFRICOM's mandate becoming confused with the national security interests of Egypt's immediate African neighbours, including any attempts to intervene in the internal affairs of Sudan over the humanitarian crisis in Darfur, would, says Haggag, mean Egypt will have cause to worry. Equally worrying would be if AFRICOM ended up opening the door to an Israeli military and intelligence presence in Africa, if it developed to become a source of conflict with other world powers that have interests in Africa, including China and the European Union, or if it facilitated a sudden aggressive presence of NATO forces across the continent. "But the fact of the matter is that AFRICOM is unlikely to lead to an unprecedented US military presence in Africa. The US, after all, is already there, with high-ranking US officers making periodical visits to liaise with many African countries on bilateral basis. Before the division of Ethiopia and Eritrea, one of the largest US military bases was in Asmara -- now Eritrea's capital. And the encouragement accorded [both politically and technically] by Washington to Ethiopia for its military intervention in Somalia [late last year] is a sign that such cooperation is ongoing," says Haggag. AFRICOM, believe African affairs experts in Egypt, is an indicator of Washington's growing interests in the continent, interests that have been developing for some time now. For Haggag, an old Africa hand, "AFRICOM is not a new concept but the brain child of former [US Secretary of Defence Donald] Rumsfeld" who had been working on the project since the second term of former US President Ronald Reagan. It was only after it was freed from the concerns of the Cold War, Haggag argues, that the US felt it was in a position to compete with its Western allies over traditional areas of influence. This coincided with the failure of Washington's allies -- mainly France and Britain -- to contain conflicts on the continent. "Nor do African countries have the means or resources to promptly deploy conflict prevention and peace keeping operations," says Haggag. Hence the entry of the US. For a decade America has been consolidating its military and intelligence presence across continent, with mixed results. Of particular interest to Washington is the strategically significant East African coast which would allow US forces to keep a close eye on the Red Sea, the Arab Gulf States and Iran. Strengthening its presence in the area would also help the US to contain the Islamist militant movements that have been gaining ground in this part of Africa. The US has also its eyes on petroleum-rich West African countries. "US policy in Africa is based mainly on military operations either to act against terror groups or contain conflicts and allow for development," says Haggag, who adds that for Egypt to counterbalance any negative impacts from US policy, it will need to work harder across the continent. Above all, Haggag believes Egypt needs to be more forthcoming with its contributions to peace- keeping operations in Africa. "I am not advocating adventurism. I am just saying that if you want to conduct yourself with authority then that authority must be exercised." Some commentators and Cairo-based African diplomats suggest that such has been Egypt's chauvinism towards Africa that Africa is now loosing interest in Egypt. One way to reverse the trend, they say, would be for Cairo to extend the limited economic and technical assistance it offers to African countries. Maassoum Marzouk, assistant foreign minister for African Affairs, disagrees. Egypt has not been shunning Africa, he says, and is as keen as ever to strengthen its ties, whether through the joint committees it has established with more than half of the continent's states, or through its embassies which operate in over 80 per cent of the remaining 53 countries. According to Marzouk "it is impossible for Egypt to give up on Africa despite developments here and there." Egyptian officials say that President Hosni Mubarak, despite visiting relatively few African states, is in continuous consultation with his African counterparts and delegates ministers to all crucial African meetings. For some African diplomats in Cairo, though, it might already be too late for Egypt to regain the position it once held in Africa. For too long, they say, Cairo has directed its efforts towards the US, Western Europe and the Middle East and that leaves it in a difficult position when it comes to attempting to balance any side effects that might accrue from the presence of AFRICOM.
