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Moscow's initiative rebuffed
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 31 - 12 - 2014

Members of the Syrian opposition have scoffed at the idea of holding Russian-brokered informal talks with the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in Moscow, saying that these would be a waste of time.
The refusal has caused consternation among Russian diplomats who say that the opposition and the regime need to achieve reconciliation in order to defeat terrorism.
Moscow's initiative, ill-defined as it was, came in the aftermath of a UN initiative, proposed by UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura, to “freeze” the fighting on selected fronts in the hope of paving the way for peace talks.
The Russian initiative lacks American and regional backing and may have been trumped by Egypt, which has invited key figures from two main Syrian opposition alliances for talks in Cairo.
The Russian idea was to get Syrian opposition members to talk in Moscow for two days and start talks with representatives of the regime. But the talks, scheduled for late January, have not attracted support in opposition circles, even from Russia's friends.
Instead, members of the Syrian National Coalition for Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCSROF), which is based outside Syria, and the National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change (NCCDC), which is based in Syria, went to Cairo to discuss the future course of action with Egyptian officials.
After meeting with Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri and Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Al-Arabi, the Syrian opposition members described the talks as “constructive” and said that they pinned their hopes on Cairo's involvement.
The Cairo talks suggest that the Syrian opposition is aware that it needs to come up with a comprehensive plan to end the conflict. They also suggest that it would prefer to depend on Arab negotiators, more sensitive to the needs of the region, than international emissaries.
Both Cairo and Riyadh seem to be exploring ways to curb the escalating turbulence in Syria.
The Saudis, whose recent decision to keep their oil production high has clipped the economic potential of both Moscow and Tehran, seem keen on exploring new approaches to the Syrian crisis. Through its close relations with Egypt's leaders, Riyadh, which has recently sorted out its disputes with Iran, is likely to have a say on any future peace deal.
However, the Russians have not given up hope and are still trying to hold Syrian peace talks, albeit informally, in Moscow and have already asked the Syrian regime to name its delegation.
It is unlikely, however, that key members of the opposition will agree to the Russian initiative. Moscow has so far come up with no suggestion as to the final outcome of the talks, and while continuing its support to the Syrian regime has asked the opposition to come to the talks “without prior conditions.”
Russia's deputy foreign minister said that the Moscow talks aimed to start a “political dialogue” that could help the opposition and the regime to cooperate in fighting “international terror.”
NCSROF member Omar Kosh said that the Russians had come up with no new ideas. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly, he said that “what the Russian politicians suggest doesn't constitute a fully-fledged initiative. They are merely filling the political vacuum in the absence of action by other players.”
All the Russians wanted was “to rehabilitate the Al-Assad regime by making it a partner in the war on terror,” Kosh added.
In Cairo, the Syrian opposition said that any future peace plan must be based on the earlier Geneva Conference's final communiqué, which calls for the establishment of a transitional governing body “with full executive powers” to restructure the army and police, administer transitional justice, organise elections, and give the country a new constitution that upholds democratic principles.
The opposition also noted that the regime had “blocked every peace initiative” in the past and was likely to do so in the future.
NCCDC expatriate department chief Khalaf Dahud was dismissive of Moscow's ideas. “I see no change in the Russian position,” Dahud told the Weekly. “Moscow is still one of the main backers of the Damascus regime.”
It was unlikely that the opposition would join hands with the regime in fighting terror, he added. “You cannot confront terror without confronting despotism,” he concluded.


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