It is unclear whether rumours that Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis has allied itself to ISIS are correct. Some websites report that the jihadist organisation has pledged allegiance to the terror group. Others deny it. Whatever the case, one thing is clear: the Egyptian government is more determined than ever to destroy all militias operating in Sinai. Badr 2014, the largest manoeuvre in the history of Egypt's military, are seen as key to addressing the challenge posed by extremism, as is the multi-pronged military plan the army has put into operation in Sinai. Military experts describe the operation as a pincer startegy that is tightening its grip on extremist groups. But the Egyptian theatre is not isolated from other areas of turmoil in the Middle East, in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. There is a necessary overlap between domestic and regional security priorities. There are reasons to doubt that jihadist organisations in Sinai have merged with ISIS, says Kamal Habib, an expert on Islamist movements. “Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis and other organisations — Al-Tawhid, the Jihad, Al-Furqan and the Shura Council of Mujahedeen, an umbrella grouping — are at odds over whether or not to ally with ISIS. Some of these organisations contain members close to the old Al-Qaeda while others side with ISIS. Those connected with Al-Qaeda have yet to determine whether or not Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi actually qualifies as caliph. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahri highlighted this dispute in one of his speeches. The arguments will probably continue and the question remains unresolved. Undoubtedly some are keen to take advantage of the situation. There are pragmatists who will seek to benefit from both organisations.” In the course of the Badr 2014 manoeuvre, which lasted for a month and demonstrated the combat efficacy of the military, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi delivered a number of messages that together throw light on the government's strategic vision for handling the terrorist question. He underscored the government's determination to hunt down and bring to account those responsible for the bloody Karm Al-Qawadis attack. “The primary aim of that operation was to try to break the will of the Egyptian people,” said Al-Sisi, “to sow discord and division, and doubt about our ability to pursue the road to development and freedom.” Al-Sisi also pointed out that “the support that those who carried out that diabolical operation received, extended beyond local funding.” In another message Al-Sisi focused on the aim of the Badr 2014 — “to strengthen the Armed Forces and raise their combat ability and efficacy so as to better equip them to protect Egyptian territory and sovereignty”. He stressed that there were no plans to deploy Egyptian forces outside Egypt and should this change the Egyptian people would be given advance warning. The president's third message was to underscore the need for transparency and honesty “as these qualities are the only way to build trust”. The purpose of the strategic manoeuvre was to enhance the capacity of the state to respond to threats and to raise levels of training, says General Alaa Ezzeddin, director of the Armed Forces' Strategic Studies Centre. The participation of the air force and navy in the exercises enhanced their capacities to respond to any potential threat from outside. He noted that the Badr 2014 was not only attended and followed by military attaches but were closely monitored by a number of intelligence agencies. In another message Al-Sisi addressed the situation in Sinai. He stressed how important it is to prevent the peninsula from falling prey to the chaos spread by terrorist and extremist groups. He outlined the measures the government is taking that directly impact on Sinai's residents, and underlined the urgent necessity to improve living standards across the peninsula. Those displaced by the creation of a buffer zone along the northeastern border are to be compensated for any losses they incur. A specialised social development council affiliated to the president's office has been set up to examine the demands of the people of the Rafah area in order to minimise any disruption they might face because of the buffer zone. The president announced that the council would comprise experts as well as representatives of the energetic young who are the backbone of the future. Addressing the domestic front as a whole, Al-Sisi stressed that the army was working with the utmost dedication to promote the higher welfare of the nation. The army had no desire to engage in confrontations with any particular party and no extraordinary measures would be taken unless the other party (a reference to the Muslim Brotherhood) seeks to sow strife and spread chaos. The president appealed to the Egyptian people to stand as one in the fight against terrorism and in the battle to press ahead with comprehensive development. He appealed to the youth, in particular, to actively participate. Securing a brighter future will require hard work, persistence and a sense of responsibility: these are the qualities which Al-Sisi said would guarantee the country passes the last milestone on the political roadmap — parliamentary elections — adopted following the removal of Mohamed Morsi. He urged young people to turn out and vote and participate in political life. Ihsan Al-Shamri, Political Science Professor at Baghdad University and a political advisor to the Iraqi government, has closely followed Al-Sisi's messages. They reflect, he believes, a comprehensive strategic vision, one that is multi-faceted and that covers the fight against terrorism at both the local and regional level. He noted that “every country has its own geo-strategic circumstances and plans must respond to the particular nature of the threat in each country”. This consideration had been incorporated into the Egyptian approach. The international community, says Al-Shamri, has yet to translate into practice the provisions of international resolutions such as Security Council resolution 2017 which can be used to invoke article 7 of the UN Charter against countries that fund terrorism. Al-Shamri describes the international coalition that is fighting ISIS as lacking the comprehensive political vision that would be necessary to fully engage in an open confrontation against an organisation that is attempting to create new fronts in Arab countries such as Egypt. Egypt is fully aware of this, he says. Ezzeddin identifies several principles that underline Egypt's strategy for fighting terrorism at home and abroad. The first is a commitment to Egypt playing a pioneering role in the region. The strategy must incorporate the notion that Egypt and other Arab countries complement each other when it comes to security, a relationship that is deeply rooted, encompassing Gulf support for Egypt during the 1973 war and (with the exception of Qatar) following the 30 June Revolution. A second principle develops from the recognition of the need to rehabilitate the concept of Arab nationalism, as opposed to regional security. There are differences with Iran and with Turkey, a NATO member whose policies conflict with Egyptian interests. Egypt also has differences with how the international alliance perceives conflicts in the region. This applies particularly to the US which wants to protract the conflict in the Middle East and impose its mandate over the region. This is unacceptable to Egypt. Ezzeddin refers to President Al-Sisi's remarks to the Kuwaiti news agency (KUNA) a week ago in which he said Egypt was helping the region to avoid further turmoil. “We want conditions to stabilise in the Arab region and for each country to preserve its geographic and demographic makeup so that they can rise again”. Al-Sisi also stressed that the security of the Gulf is a red line, inseparable from the national security of Egypt. A third principle addresses the domestic front and concerns national security and the safety of the Egyptian citizen. Al-Sisi has made it abundantly clear that this lies at the heart of his strategic vision.
