The perception of conspiratorial scheming by Russian President Vladimir Putin in domestic Ukrainian affairs is calamitous to the country precisely because it eats at Kiev's authority and is confusing for anyone trying to follow the Ukrainian political crisis. Is Russia taking Ukraine to the brink of dismemberment? No. That the Kremlin has designs on Ukraine is a cockamamie notion to which some Western commentators resorted when it became obvious that the pro-Russian secessionists in southeast Ukraine were determined to join the Russian Federation come what may. As Ukraine burns to a crisp, Russia and the West are eyeing developments in the war-torn country. It is against this backdrop that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko last Friday announced a weeklong ceasefire between rival protagonists in southeast Ukraine. Putin promptly declared that he backed Poroshenko's plan as long as it included talks with pro-Russian secessionists in southeast Ukraine. And, it is not as if Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine accept Kiev's decrees without a murmur. Indeed, incessant fighting between pro-Moscow and pro-Kiev factions in eastern Ukraine was still erupting on several fronts on the day a ceasefire by both sides was due to come to an end, and as Al-Ahram Weekly went to press it is still not clear what the fate of the ceasefire would be, as Poroshenko pledged to end the ceasefire with pro-Russian secessionists in the eastern part of the country. “We will attack and free our lands,” a flabbergasted Poroshenko bludgeoned. Russia, which bankrolled Ukraine in the past, is not unduly concerned. Poroshenko may have signed an association deal with the EU (a move that Ukraine's ex-president, Viktor Yanukovych, declined, prompting the political crisis that ultimately led to his ouster). Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will be able to trade freely in any of the EU's 28 member states without tariffs or restrictions, but the crucial question is whether the EU would be able to replace Russia's largesse. Ukraine's cloven halves have different views on the subject. Putin is not prone to expletives. And hence when NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Western leaders, who backed Poroshenko's plan, threatened retribution, he was willing to put their bluff to the test. Yet, the fighting is still going on as ferociously as ever. Kiev's “anti-terrorist operation” declared last week that about 300 separatists had been killed in action around the villages of Yampil and Zakitne, in eastern Ukraine. Ideological and ethnic or linguistic violence still wins the day. Donetsk has metamorphosed as the focus of the struggle to win hearts and minds in Ukraine. And the European Union is detested in Donestk — EU efforts are currently shaped via the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), a policy rejected by pro-Russian insurrectionists. Several working in war-ravaged Ukraine under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) were kidnapped over the past two months, only to be released later. The sad truth is that Ukrainians are not convinced that jaw-jaw will always be a preferable option to war-war. When Ukraine applied to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation in 1994, Moscow strongly objected. It is not as if NATO is brimming with action, but Moscow deeply resents the encroachment of NATO and its soliciting of Russia's former client states. In much the same vein, Ukraine is poised to strengthen its association with the EU and the loudest naysayers are the Russian speakers of eastern Ukraine. Pro-Russian separatists shot down a large military transport plane in eastern Ukraine, reportedly killing 49 people on board in a major blow to Kiev authorities efforts to quell the insurgency in the eastern parts of the country. The Russian energy giant Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Kiev last week after the Ukraine failed to pay off its gas debts. There was nothing the EU could do. And Moscow holds critical cards. Gazprom meets around a third of Europe's gas demand, while half of Russian gas exports to Europe go via Ukraine. The moral of the story is that Kiev has to make do with less in hard times. In short, the stage had been set for a dramatic upset in Russian-Ukrainian relations. Russia and Ukraine were perfectly matched as trading partners. And it is easy to see why this once looked plausible. It is against this backdrop that the escalating violence has had a melodramatic impact. Russia feels encircled. And Ukraine, like Georgia, is keen to free itself of the Soviet legacy. The fascinating question is whether a Ukrainian compromise will erase Moscow's bitterness at losing former client states such as Ukraine. The Ukrainian Defence Ministry announced bitterly that one of its planes was shot down as it approached an airport at Luhansk, a pro-Moscow stronghold. The Il-76 transport plane had been carrying service personnel, equipment and food. Not surprisingly, the Ukrainian authorities were furious. Ukraine's newly elected president, Poroshenko, promptly pledged revenge. Russia, however, claimed that it had nothing to do with the unfortunate incident and urged the warring factions in Ukraine to exercise restraint. US Secretary of State John Kerry raised the issue with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. But Moscow is not in a state of mind to bend with the wind. Kiev is flexing its muscles. The mayor of Slavyansk, Vyacheslav Ponomarev, was last week summarily sacked from his post and arrested. It is against this backdrop that Ukrainian government forces last week attacked the pro-Russian insurrectionists-held port city of Mariupol in a dawn attack launched as part of a broader military operation by the authorities in Kiev to reclaim control of eastern Ukraine. It proved to be a futile exercise. In the eyes of pro-Russian Ukrainians, playing false to win wrongly is infinitely worse than a noble defeat. The pro-Russian insurrectionists are fighting back. The military commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Igor Strelkov, is intent on merging with the Russian Federation. Those in Kiev hoping to see the eastern Ukraine returning to the Kiev fold are likely to be sorely disappointed. The authorities in Kiev claim that Strelkov is a Russian military intelligence agent from Moscow. Both Strelkov and Ponomarev have denied any links with the Kremlin and pledged to kill Ukraine's Defence Minister, Arsen Avakov. The Verkhovna Rada, literally Supreme Council or Ukrainian parliament, in Kiev is decidedly pro-EU and pro-NATO. But pro-Russian insurrectionists are indifferent to the Vrekhovna Rada's wishes. What matters is that they see the standard of living in Ukraine plummeting and that they bank on Russia and not the EU to rescue them. Indeed, per capita GDP in Ukraine last year was less than half the country's per capita when it seceded from the Soviet Union. Ukrainian GDP growth was first registered in 2000, and continued for eight years. In 2007 the Ukrainian economy continued to grow partly because of brisk business with Russia, and had an impressive GDP growth of seven per cent. Not so today. It has been a rotten year for Ukrainians and they need a way out of their predicament. Natural gas, primarily from Russia, is Ukraine's biggest import at present and is the main cause of the country's structural trade deficit. And Russia is reeling from a sense of grand betrayal. But the West, too, is reaping the whirlwind, so to speak. The irony is that Ukraine is potentially rich. The country is energy poor, but is well endowed with natural resources, mineral and agricultural. Ukraine not devoid of natural resources — the country is rich in mineral deposits, including iron ore (of which it once produced 50 per cent of entire Soviet output), manganese ore (of which it produced 40 per cent of world output during the Soviet era), mercury, titanium and nickel. Ukraine's economy was ranked 45th in the world in 2008, but has since deteriorated sharply. Ukraine contains natural gas reserves of 39.6 trillion cubic feet, but only about 20 per cent of the country's demand is met by domestic production. And that is where Russian energy comes into play. Last Saturday, the Russian energy giant Gazprom announced that preparations were underway to avert gas supply cuts and possible flow disruption to Europe amid demands for Ukraine to pay its debts, mostly energy bills. As a former Soviet Union member state, Ukraine's economy has traditionally been inextricably intertwined with that of Russia. More than 60 per cent of Ukraine's exports go to Russia, Belarus and Kazakhastan. The three countries, especially Russia, are Ukraine's most important trading partners. Nevertheless, the main political conundrum is corruption and fraud on a massive scale. The Ukrainian economy is run by mafia-like thugs. Scams that diverted $11 billion from the country's budget over just three years have been the most serious bone of contention in the Verkhovna Rada. Small wonder, then, that the billion-dollar larceny has fuelled the political crisis in the country further.
