Petro Oleksiyovych Poroshenko, a billionaire politician turned businessman, is a typical tycoon whose passion for politics has catapulted him to the corridors of power in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. He took the oath of office as Ukraine's president on 7 June in an inauspicious ceremony before the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament. He is no newcomer to the Ukrainian political scene. He served as Ukrainian foreign minister (2009-2010), and as minister of trade and economic development (2012) besides being the head of the country's biggest confectionery business. He is dubbed the “Chocolate king” because of his confectionery empire. In Kiev's Verkhovna Rada he turned up like a bad penny. Poroshenko's contentious inaugural address after taking the oath of office in parliament was graced by big enchiladas such as United States Vice President Joe Biden and the controversial right-wing Republican bigwig John McCain. What Poroshenko perhaps could not comprehend was that in Kiev he was, alas, simply the head honcho. He exploited real and latent hatreds in southeast Ukraine and in turn invited derision from Moscow and its political proxies and allies in Ukraine. Poroshenko's showdown with his detractors in Kiev is stuck in petty politics. In the virulently anti-Semitic Ukraine, the charge that he is of Jewish origin is damning. Historically, Ukraine was renowned for its horrific pogroms in which hundreds of thousands of Jews perished. The fact that Ukraine aspires to NATO and European Union membership saved the Chocolate king, but to many of his compatriots he was a bitter pill to swallow. Poroshenko, Ukraine's fifth president since the demise of the Soviet Union, insisted in his inaugural speech that Crimea was an integral part of Ukraine and that he upheld the country's territorial integrity. He said that he would not be kowtowed by Moscow over Crimea, or any other part of Ukraine for that matter. So we are, so to speak, back to square one. Conflicting signals and statements resonated in Normandy. “There's a window for peace now, but it won't stay indefinitely,” Biden boasted. “The Ukrainian leadership must show its goodwill and wisdom,” retorted Russian President Vladimir Putin. Chocolate king or tyrannical tycoon, Putin was obviously not impressed. Putin and Poroshenko have much in common, though. They are both wild about judo, for one thing. Ukraine is still grappling with Western-style democratic values and Poroshenko's inauguration was as a result certainly not attended by the Russian president. The United States cajoles Kiev into adopting a full-fledged Western-style democracy like Ukraine's neighbour Poland. Washington promptly pledged a $48 million assistance package to Ukraine for mundane tasks including strengthening the Ukrainian border guard service. The Chocolate king became Ukraine's president-elect on 25 May 2014, capturing more than 54 per cent of the vote in the first round, thereby winning outright and avoiding a runoff. Stifling obfuscation over Ukraine evaporated in the Chateau de Benouville. The D-Day celebrations in Normandy last week appear to be a watershed in Russian-Western powers relations. President Vladimir Putin spoke, somewhat grudgingly, with Ukrainian President-elect Petro Poroshenko on Friday on the sidelines of D-Day commemorations. In France, they met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and as it turned out, the forum for the tiff that Western diplomats expected ended up in pussyfooting courtesy in which diplomacy was cloaked simultaneously in niceties and necessities. Merkel, acting as mediator, ushered Putin and Poroshenko into the Chateau de Benouville for a tete-a-tete. It was a rather futile exercise, but at it caught the attention of the paparazzi. Ukraine's unruly tongues are juxtaposing death on the doorstep of its southeast provinces, particularly in the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia is not particularly keen to march in and overrun these self-declared independent political entities. And Kiev is unlikely to do so unless provoked by Poroshenko. “The head of state has a wide spectrum of different instruments to ensure territorial integrity and peace,” Poroshenko assured his audience in his inaugural address. “There will be no shortage of authority and decisiveness,” he threatened. Yet in the same breath he sounded somewhat conciliatory: “I do not seek revenge.” Not surprisingly, he has set tongues wagging. Poroshenko does seem to underestimate the critical importance of the $450 billion of annual trade between Russia and Europe. And the chicanery Kiev used to generate has taken a turn for the worse. Putin signed a $400 gas deal with China and in the Kazakh capital Astana agreed with his Kazakh and Belarusian counterparts Nursultan Nazarbayev and Alexander Lukashenko to create a Eurasian Economic Union. US President Barack Obama met briefly last Friday with Russian counterpart Putin to discuss the volatile political situation in Ukraine, and it was obvious who had the upper hand. Putin marched with his host French President Hollande, and Obama in the company of Queen Elizabeth II of Britain followed a few steps behind. The spectre of Putin taking the lead into the Chateau de Benouville highlighted the mesmerising wizardry of the redoubtable Russian president. His diplomatic manoeuvres are joys to behold. Ukraine under Poroshenko will certainly not join the Eurasian Economic Union, but will Ukraine be impeccable enough a Western-style democracy to join the European Union with its stringent membership rules? And is Poroshenko in a position to install his favourite apparatchik in Kiev? That is a matter of conjecture. The rhetorical commitment to peace must be matched by words that produce tangible results. There is a great opportunity cost involved for Europe. The hardest bit of the puzzle is whether — or rather how — Europe can contain Ukraine and its leader's unrealistic caprice. Poroshenko promised safe corridors for “Russian mercenaries” to leave the country and pledged an amnesty for those who didn't kill servicemen or civilians. It all sounds like a very messy business. Who is a Russian mercenary? Is he a Ukrainian Russian-speaking insurrectionist? The downsides of such a bellicose policy are legion and are strikingly grave. A long running tit-for-tat between Moscow and Kiev over who had greater claim over Crimea is ineffectual, even counterproductive, and inimical as far as bilateral relations are concerned. Unfortunately, the pompous, self-righteous manner in which Poroshenko behaved at his inauguration was embarrassingly true to the stereotype of the East European oligarch, and it was rather disappointing. This only prompts other questions in regards to Poroshenko and his political clique in Kiev. Yet Poroshenko sounded somewhat spooked when he stressed that the fighting in eastern Ukraine must stop sooner than later. Is he prevaricating under Putin's pressure? “We must stop the gunfire this week,” he declared a day after his inauguration. More than 15 per cent of European gas imports from Russia pass through Ukraine. Its strategic importance is a key strength, but the advantage must be properly invested in farsighted policy. History will probably be kinder to Putin than to his Western pursuers.
