The ISIS trauma The move was as swift as it was decisive. When fighters of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a splinter group from Al-Qaeda, stormed Mosul, Iraqi army and administrators withdrew with less than perfunctory resistance. In an unbelievable feat, the ultra-Sunni militia took control of airports and government offices, military barracks and banks, enriching itself and sending the city's inhabitants fleeing for their lives. Elated by its achievement, the notorious jihadists promised to march to Baghdad soon. The success of ISIS threw the country in turmoil, sent tens of thousands into Iraq's Kurdistan, and tossed Iraq's future into the unknown. In Iraqi Kurdistan, the impact was felt on more than one level. As the self-governed Kurdistan played host to thousands of refugees, it also received an unexpected bonus — the city of its dreams. Kirkuk, once described by Jalal Talabani as the “holy of holies”, is now under full Kurdish control. Without firing a shot, the Kurds achieved one of their oldest nationalist dreams, and gained control of more oil than any arrangement with the Baghdad government could have given them. Nearly 100,000 Iraqi refugees arrived in recently in Kurdistan, joining thousands of Fallujah inhabitants who had fled there a few months ago, topping the Syrian refugees who escaped their country in similar circumstances. For years, Kirkuk has been a bone of contention. The city, which is inhabited by a mix of Arabs, Turkmen, and Kurds, gained a mention in both the 2004 and 2005 constitutions, where its future was supposed to be decided in a referendum. Now, the regional government of Kurdistan is likely to hold on to the city until further notice. The developments in Iraq brought quick reaction from both Tehran and Washington. Only hours after the fall of Mosul, Iran offered to help the Iraqi government fight ISIS. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama voiced concern over the situation and hinted to possible military action. Recent reports indicate that both the Iranians and Americans are deploying additional troops to protect their interests, which in Iran's case include holy Shia shrines. If this trend continues, Iraq may not be just staring partition in the face, but may face years of regional and international meddling in its affairs. As the Iraqis contemplated their sombre options, many called on Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki to resign, reckoning his divisive policies tore apart the country's fabric and in particular antagonised the Sunnis. Under the current circumstances, it is unlikely that the Kurds wouldn't try to hold on to their gains. It is hard to picture Masoud Barazani, president of Iraqi Kurdistan, abandoning Kirkuk now that he has the chance of boosting his oil exports, some of which are reaching Israel via Turkey, an arrangement with which the Americans must be pleased. As prime minister, Al-Maliki's fate is rather precarious. His opponents are no longer confined to the Sunni community, for major Shia figures, including Moqtada Al-Sadr, Ammar Al-Hakim and Jaafar Al-Sadr, have urged him to step down. And the country's top Shia cleric, Ali Al-Sistani, hinted that the country needs “a government that has national acceptance”. But even if Al-Maliki leaves office, it is hard to conceive of a mechanism that will mend the divisions of the past few years, now compounded by the ISIS trauma.
