A presidential panel pronounced the transformation of Yemen into a six-region federation last week as the new Yemen rides in with a whimper. Northern Shia Houthis and certain sections of southern Yemen's political establishment disapprove. Yet, politicians in the Yemeni capital Sanaa insist that the six-region solution is the best political option for contemporary Yemen. The poorest and least developed country in the Arabian Peninsula stands poised for a new democratic dispensation. A federation is deemed the most suitable political adjustment for the nation of 25 million. The new six Yemeni regions include four in the north (namely Azal, Saba, Janad and Tahama) and two in the south (Aden and Hadramawt). It was perhaps unrealistic to expect Yemen to make a decisive break with its past. The new regions roughly coincide with historical provincial divisions. The Yemeni capital, nevertheless, will not be affiliated to a region and will have “a special status in the constitution to guarantee its independence and impartiality”. The new administrative arrangement is regarded by many Yemenis as a panacea for the country's problems. The regions are autonomous and have the right to join other regions if they believe it is in their best interests. The northern Shia Houthis, however, are furious because they are included in the only region, Azal, not to have access to either the Red Sea or the Arabian Sea. The southeastern Hadramawt province would include Al-Mahra, Shebwa and the Indian Ocean island of Socotra off the Somali coast, while Saba comprises Bayda, Marib and Al-Jawf. Hadramawt is among the richest of Yemen's regions. It has tremendous tourism potential and a rich cultural heritage unique in the Arabian Peninsula. Hadramawt also has oil, and plenty of it. The northern heartland of Azal would include the provinces of Dhamar, Amran and Saada, a stronghold of the rebellious Houthis, while Aden would comprise the capital of the former South Yemen, as well as Abyan, Lahej and Daleh. Janad includes the densely populated and fertile Taiz and Ibb. Tahama includes the port city of Hudeida on the Red Sea, plus Rima, Mahwit and Hajja Red Sea coastal provinces. Some southerners, however, complain that they would have preferred to have a single region combining both Aden and Hadramawt instead of two. Yemeni President Abd-Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, who assumed office on 25 February 2012, is himself a southerner. Born in Abyan, now part of Aden Region, Hadi studied military commanding in Britain, Egypt where he sojourned for six years, and the former Soviet Union. He was a member of the then ruling Yemeni Socialist Party of the Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) before defecting to Sanaa. He is a strong proponent of the new six-region federation and an expounder of the fight against Al-Qaeda and other affiliated militant Islamist groups. A military strategist and a former minister of defence, Hadi was quoted as saying that Yemen faced “three undeclared wars”: a war against Al-Qaeda, another against pirates in the Gulf of Aden and the third against the Houthi Shia militias of northern Yemen. Nevertheless, he is seen as a consensus president with an amiable personality and a seasoned politician. Yemen was an integral part of what has become known worldwide as the “Arab Spring”. Yet, the country faces serious political, economic and social challenges. Yemen is regarded as a base of Al-Qaeda and other militant Islamist terrorist organisations. It is ethnically homogenous, but there are powerful regional affiliations and identity politics based on tribal loyalties and religious particularisms predominate the political structure of the country. The United States regularly dispatches drones to destroy suspected terrorist strongholds with the tacit connivance of the Yemeni government. The United Nations, too, has designated the country as a war-torn corner of the otherwise prosperous Arabian Peninsula. Indeed, in many respects, Yemen is more akin to the neighbouring Horn of Africa nations across the Red Sea than with other Arabian Peninsula nations. Yemen's national dialogue was stipulated by a UN-backed roadmap that ended a year of nationwide protests against former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who stepped down in 2012 after 33 years in power. One of the criticisms levelled against the presidential panel that proposed the new six-region federation is that it has the propensity to divide the country into two oil-rich regions — Saba and especially Hadramawt on the one hand — and four resource-poor ones — Aden, Janad, Tahama and landlocked Azal on the other. Aden is a cosmopolitan and relatively prosperous port and commands the strategic Strait of Bab Al-Mandab. Resource-poor Azal bordering Saudi Arabia is seen as the most contentious of Yemen's new regions. It straddles a densely populated swathe of mountainous territory inhabited by powerful tribal confederacies and it is obliged to contend with confessional strife. In a land of paradox, the particular paradox of Azal is yet to resolve itself. It is assumed that Saudi Arabia commands enormous influence in Yemen and that it had a hidden hand in the redrawing of Yemen's political map. The peculiar rhythm of Saudi Arabia's historical hegemony in Yemen and in particular in the border region of Azal and oil-rich Hadramawt and Saba is bound to have serious political repercussions. All the evidence is that Riyadh does indeed favour the new federation. In the final analysis, if Azal survives the new order then there is hope for Yemen's political future. Azal is key to the political stability of the country and it is likewise a barometer for the success of the Yemeni democratisation process.
