Egypt's foreign affairs will be a major challenge for the next president, especially if this next president is — as it is most likely be — Field Marshal Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi. This is the conclusion that several reports offered in the past few days in consideration of Al-Sisi and his possible presidential candidacy. While preparing himself to announce his candidacy, that appear set to lead him by spring to the top executive post, Al-Sisi had requested, in his capacity as army chief and minister of defence, several reports on the top challenges the next president will face. “It is clear from the reports that foreign relations is no small challenge; he knows it,” said one foreign ministry source. The obvious reason that foreign policy will be daunting for Al-Sisi as president, according to one report offered for his consideration, is the fact that it was he, as army chief, who announced the ouster of elected but widely opposed president Mohamed Morsi three days after the massive demonstrations of 30 June 2013. “It was already a tough diplomatic battle to make sure that key world capitals would not qualify, at least in their public statements, the 3 July announcement as a coup; we were successful in some cases but not in all cases, because obviously the African Union has been taking a very intransigent position on the matter,” said a senior diplomatic source. He added: “And the fact of the matter is that even some of those capitals, including Washington, who refrained from using the word ‘coup', are not entirely convinced that 3 July was not exactly, or let us say technically, a coup.” Indeed, it is not unusual to hear foreign — including Western, African and Asian — diplomats in Cairo suggest that despite “the uncontested popularity” of Al-Sisi, his ascent to the top executive post after having been the “man who removed Morsi” will bring back the “coup debate”. “Let us face it, it goes beyond the fact that Al-Sisi removed Morsi and is now getting ready to have his job in less than a year. There are other serious coup signs, including the repression to which the supporters of Morsi, and for that matter the opposition to Al-Sisi in general, have been subjected. It is very hard for us to tell the European Parliament that this is not a coup,” said a European ambassador. He added: “For us to be able to tell Europe that this is not a coup, and that we need to continue helping Egypt, some serious measures have to be adopted by the next president.” In the assessment of foreign diplomats — whether based in Cairo or visiting — who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly during the past couple of weeks, if Al-Sisi wants to seriously engage the international community and to attract aid, investment and technical and trade cooperation — “And obviously he needs all of this because he cannot be only counting on the generous help of some Gulf countries who will not keep the same pace of economic help anyway,” as one visiting European diplomat said — then he needs to pursue an end to the “measures of repression”. Egyptian diplomats acknowledge that since the removal of Morsi the flow of foreign visitors to Egypt has dwindled significantly. “And we know it is deliberate; it is deliberate because they think they have to send a clear message that if Egypt is going to deviate from the path of democracy then there will be a price to pay in terms of international relations. It is also deliberate because public opinion and parliamentarians [in Europe] is still quite apprehensive about what has been unfolding in Egypt,” said one Europe-based Egyptian ambassador. Breaking the diplomatic isolation to which Egypt has been subjected could be prompted, as one report offered for Al-Sisi's attention suggested, through the release of “political prisoners” — both from the Muslim Brotherhood and from other political groupings — who are not proven to have been involved in any acts of violence or incitement. Other measures suggested for Al-Sisi's consideration included looking into ways bolster what could be generally qualified as “inclusive democracy”. “Islamists are onboard, of course, through the Salafi representation, but something or other has to be done to eliminate the image perceived in the outside world that hundreds of thousands of Muslim Brotherhood members are being aggressively persecuted and are denied basic human and political rights,” said one source who is familiar with the content of the reports offered to Al-Sisi. He added that maintaining the Freedom and Justice Party, which was the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, is key in this respect. Egyptian diplomats based overseas say they keep telling their interlocutors that despite the designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation late last year, the government has not acted to issue an official decree in this respect, in order to allow for “the political reintegration of those who are not involved in violence”. In the words of one: “We are saying this with the understanding that the authorities would not oppose, for example, some Muslim Brotherhood members — especially from the younger generation — joining the parliamentary elections, probably as independents, and to get back into the political scene from that door.” It has been suggested to Al-Sisi, repeatedly by several advisors — mostly from outside the ruling quarter — to consider prompting the release of some of Muslim Brotherhood figures who have not been proven to be involved in violence. But no decision has been taken so far on the matter, despite the toll this has had on Egypt's foreign relations. Still, there are some in the foreign ministry and elsewhere in Egypt's ruling bodies that are convinced that once president, the decisions of Al-Sisi will be revisited with an eye on the foreign policy gains that could be made. “Listen, we cannot turn into North Korea; we cannot do it. Foreign relations are a crucial matter for Egypt. We need foreign relations desperately, to resolve lots of crucial files. This includes using international pressure on Ethiopia to accommodate our concerns on the construction of the Renaissance Dam, that if left unattended could cause a water disaster for us, and using international technical and financial assistance to build new electricity plants, because our electricity problem is not just about the shortage of fuel but also about the shortage of electricity generation capacity,” said a government source. Traditionally, Egypt had used its foreign policy capacity, especially in the Middle East and to a lesser extent during the last few decades in Africa, to make economic gains. During its participation in the Kuwait liberation effort in the early 1990s, Egypt managed to have written off a good part of its international debt, while through its mediation between Palestinians and Israelis, it prompted considerable cooperation with Europe as well as the US. “Today, we have to sadly admit that our regional role has been really reduced. This is not just a function of the last three years after the 25 January Revolution toppled the Mubarak regime. It is also a function of the slow pace of foreign policy making during the last few years of Mubarak rule, where everything really was slow, not just foreign policy,” said the same senior diplomatic source. He added that the many tours that Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmi has been on during the past months reveal a considerable interest across the world to have Egypt make a comeback to its role of leadership in the Middle East. “We need to end the isolation, not just by pursuing better recognition, and this is something that could be done if we live up to some key democracy expectations, but also by offering new regional initiatives on top files like the situation in Syria or relations between north and south Sudan. We have the capacity to do so; we could do it despite our internal concerns, which will take a long time to sort out anyway,” he suggested. According to the assessment of foreign diplomats in Egypt, if Egypt “under Al-Sisi” is going to be “under military rule” the world would still be willing to deal with it — “for sure, if it pursues some basic freedoms parameters”. “At the end of the day, nobody wants to turn their back to Egypt. But we also have to be able to advance relations; we want to help for sure, but we need support from the authorities in Egypt to do so,” said another European ambassador in Cairo. Reaching out to the world, according to the government source, is something that Al-Sisi is sure to warm up to. “This is a man who had requested endless papers on key problems, ranging from education and healthcare to infrastructure and energy management. He is not going to do so without the help of the outside world. He will reach out to the world for sure, because he knows that otherwise the development scheme that he is planning to offer as a crucial cornerstone of his platform as a presidential candidate cannot pick up,” the European ambassador added. Informed official and non-official sources who work around Al-Sisi's presidential plans suggest Al-Sisi would want to be able to make international visits without being faced with angry protestors in the countries he is visiting, whether foreign or Egyptians living abroad. “He would have to make sure that foreign visitors find their way back to Egypt and that he does not turn into an isolated leader. He cannot accept to be less than Mubarak or Morsi, who both made considerable foreign trips. He will have to prove that he could rework Egypt's foreign policy. He is working on it with the help of some of the country's best experts on the matter,” said one member of the “Al-Sisi for President” team.
