John Kerry, the US secretary of state, is no stranger to post-revolution Cairo. He was a frequent visitor to the Egyptian capital after former president Hosni Mubarak was deposed in 2011. At that time, Kerry was the chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. When he came to town, he used to meet officials, representatives of civil society and members of the Muslim Brotherhood. The latter maintained contacts, on and off, with the Americans from the mid-1950s. The predecessors of its current leaders had gone as far as cooperating with the CIA to assassinate president Gamal Abdel-Nasser. There were two attempts on his life and, fortunately, the two were thwarted. So it should not have been a surprise that the Americans were enthusiastic about the Muslim Brotherhood's coming to power along the Nile. Two other American officials were frequent visitors to Cairo during the period from 2011 to 2012: former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, a Democrat like her successor, and Senator John McCain, a Republican. The three without exception came to the conclusion that Washington under the Obama administration could do business with the Brotherhood, strengthened by their so-called democratic credentials won through the ballot box. The events of 30 June and their consequences took the American administration by surprise. It failed to see the gathering storm, and when it struck, the administration took three months to articulate a policy to deal with the overthrow of the Brotherhood. They are, actually, trying to manage the consequences of the downfall of their allies without damaging their long-term relations with Egypt and the interim government in place in Cairo. Against this backdrop, Secretary Kerry paid a short visit to Cairo that lasted few hours on Sunday, 3 November. He is the first high-ranking American official to visit Cairo after 3 July when the army intervened and saved the nation from a precipice. His deputy at Foggy Bottom, Ambassador William Burns, travelled to Cairo twice in the summer, two visits that did not prevent Washington from imposing sanctions on Egypt. The American administration decided to withhold the delivery of four F-16 fighter jets and to cancel the Bright Star military exercise that was planned for September. The two measures were a first in Egyptian-American relations since the 1970s. President Barack Obama, in his remarks to the 68th session of the General Assembly of the United Nations on 24 September dealt with the situation in Egypt and how the United States views it. He said that, “… [Mohamed] Morsi was democratically elected but proved unwilling or unable to govern in a way that was fully inclusive. The interim government that replaced him responded to the desires of millions of Egyptians … but it, too, has made decisions inconsistent with inclusive democracy — through an emergency law, and restrictions on the press and civil society and opposition parties.” He added: “The United States will maintain a constructive relationship with the interim government that promotes core interests like the Camp David Accords and counterterrorism… and our support will depend upon Egypt's progress in pursuing a more democratic path.” In this context, I believe Secretary Kerry visited Egypt last Sunday to gauge the progress that President Obama talked about. One question that has been left unanswered in Washington DC, publicly at least, centres around finding a name for what happened in Cairo on 3 July. Was it a coup or not? I tend to believe that within the inner circles of the White House, the talk has been around a coup. But saying this publicly would trigger a complete suspension of American assistance to Egypt, something no American administration would contemplate under any circumstances. The administration has opted, instead, for a partial suspension of military assistance and a selective targeting of the recipients. Here a distinction has been made by the American government between the army and the interim government, on the one hand, and civil society and the private sector on the other. That was amply clarified by the administration during the first full-fledged congressional hearing held on the situation in Egypt after 3 July, when the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives convened 29 October, under the chairmanship of Representative Ed Royce (Republican-California) to discuss “Next Steps on Egypt Policy”. Secretary Kerry came in the framework of an American search for an answer in this respect. Royce expressed support, in his opening remarks, for what he termed “a continued and robust military relationship with Egypt”. And concluded by stating that, “While we would like a democratic partner for our many security interests in the region, we need a partner. We should push and pull with what influence we have.” This approach was seconded by Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Derek Chollet, who reiterated that the military relationship existing between the US and Egypt represents the “most significant and enduring strategic defense relationship in the Middle East”. He affirmed that the partnership between the two countries would be “the strongest when Egypt is represented by an inclusive, democratically elected government based on the rule of law, fundamental freedoms, and an open and competitive economy.” He, and the acting assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, Beth Jones, concurred that the administration has “serious concerns about the events of 3 July and the large-scale violence against demonstrators in mid-August.” Furthermore, Jones said that the removal of former President Morsi was an “undemocratic” measure by the interim government. That was the first time that an official in the Obama administration had publicly condemned the events of 3 July. The word “removal” in her statement is synonymous with the word coup. Jones, while welcoming the commitment of the interim government to the roadmap for a democratic transition in Egypt, said that the US administration would monitor the progress made in this respect. All assistance to the Egyptian government would be withheld, like cash transfers that amount to $260 million and loan guarantees to the tune of $300 million. Amounts earmarked for education, health, democracy and governance would continue. Also, assistance to the private sector would remain untouched. The representative of the United States Agency for International Development, Alina Romaowski, said that the agency had notified the US Congress of an additional $60 million to further capitalise the “Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund”. This fund aims at promoting what her statement described as a “much needed development of the private sector… [to] expand access to credit, and create opportunities for Egyptian small and medium enterprises.” She assured the House Committee that the agency would “continue to work with the Egyptian people to address their legitimate aspirations for economic opportunities and democratic governance.” Two months ago, President Obama said that relations between Washington and Cairo would never be the same after the events of 3 July, and several administration officials have asserted that bilateral relations between the two countries are under constant review in light of political developments in Egypt. The visit of Secretary Kerry to Cairo on 3 November should be viewed in this context. But whatever the results of this review will be, it is doubtful that relations between the United States and Egypt will be as warm as they had been for the last 35 years. And I believe that once the roadmap is carried out, we should reassess those relations on our part. Secretary Kerry, during a joint press conference with his Egyptian counterpart after their talks in Cairo on 3 November, announced that President Obama agreed to a proposal by President Adli Mansour to start a strategic dialogue between the United States and Egypt. Moreover, Secretary Kerry stressed that relations between the two countries should not be limited to American assistance. He expressed the support of the American administration for the roadmap and Egypt's transition to democracy and the rule of law. He condemned all forms of violence and mentioned Sinai in particular, as well as attacks on the police. It is clear the visit of Secretary Kerry came at a critical juncture, not only for Egypt, but also for the Middle East. Overall, it provided the interim government with public American support in its pursuit of establishing a democratic regime in Egypt. It was an attempt on the part of the Obama administration to send a message that, notwithstanding the suspension of certain military and economic assistance, the United States still considers Egypt a strategic partner in the Middle East and a leader for the region on the road of democracy and economic prosperity. It remains to be seen how the two countries will work together in the future to deal with various regional challenges and the transformation of the Middle East, a process now taking place that could entail a new alignment among regional powers.
