The national dialogue between the Islamist Al-Nahda Movement, which leads the country's coalition government, and the secularist opposition began last Friday in Tunis, the opposition having been pressing for the resignation of the government which it claims has proven itself incompetent in managing the affairs of the country. The so-called troika government, made up of three of Tunisia's largest political parties and dominated by Al-Nahda, took power during the interim period that followed the Tunisian revolution nearly two years ago that itself set into motion the wave of revolutions across the Middle East known as the Arab Spring. An air of suspense tinged with scepticism hovered over the opening of the dialogue as all speculated over who would succeed prime minister Ali Laarayedh, who submitted a written pledge to hand in his resignation within three weeks, depending on the progress of the talks. There is deep mistrust between the secularist forces and the Islamist movements, and the opening of the talks had to be delayed several times, the last time being on Wednesday of last week. The opposition had accused Al-Nahda of dragging its feet on agreeing to the agenda of the dialogue, and the security situation in the country was also unfavourable, as Islamist extremists had earlier gunned down seven policemen. The national dialogue initiative, scheduled to last three weeks, aims to produce an agreement over a non-partisan technocratic government to manage the nation's affairs for the remainder of the interim period and to arrange for parliamentary and presidential elections. The participants are also expected to agree on a date for those elections and on the creation of a national electoral commission. The political crisis that the dialogue seeks to resolve had escalated sharply in recent months in tandem with the assassinations of two prominent opposition members, the lawyer and political activist Chokry Belaid and the Constituent Assembly member Mohamed Brahmi. The assassinations, committed by Islamist gunmen, led to widespread protests against Al-Nahda and its allies, who were accused of catering to extremists. The General Federation of Tunisian Workers (UGTT), the largest and oldest union in the country, was the chief sponsor of the dialogue, and after numerous rounds of negotiations it finally managed to bring the two sides together in face-to-face talks. “The countdown has begun to the implementation of the roadmap that will lead to the resignation of the Laarayedh government,” announced UGTT Secretary-General Hussein Abbasi on his Facebook page following the first session of the talks. These were set in motion after Laarayedh had submitted a document to the UGTT and the three other civil society organisations that brokered the talks in which he pledged that the government would resign within the period specified by the roadmap. In another indication that the clouds of the crisis are beginning to lift, the delegates of the country's Constituent Assembly that had earlier resigned in protest as the crisis mounted signed a document calling for the resumption of the activities of the assembly which had ground to a halt over the summer. During the first sessions of the dialogue, the participants are expected to agree on an independent figure who will be charged with forming a new government and creating the committee responsible for supervising the implementation of the roadmap arrived at in the dialogue. However, as Tunisians await the outcome of the dialogue in the hope that it will bring their country back from the precipice, nerves have been strained further by more outbreaks of violence and political turmoil. In the south of the country, several soldiers were killed in terrorist attacks, while some anti-government protesters set fire to the local Al-Nahda headquarters. Anti-government and anti-Nahda demonstrations reached their peak on Wednesday last week, which coincided with the second anniversary of the Constituent Assembly elections. The demonstrators called for the dissolution of the assembly and the ousting of the government, which they accused of failure in running the country and “collusion with terrorism”. Al-Nahda and its allies have accused the opposition forces of organising the protests in order to undermine the national dialogue and aggravate the political crisis that flared up following the assassination of Brahmi. The Tunisian press has been guardedly optimistic in its reactions to the beginning of the national dialogue. Beneath the headline, “Finally, Ali Laarayedh Steps Down,” the French-language daily Le Quotidien observed that “the national dialogue does not have an easy mission. The political parties must come to an agreement within three weeks to a month over problems they have not been able to overcome for two years.” “In addition to the creation of a government of independents, the political opponents will have to agree on the constitution whose drafting was interrupted several months ago, the creation of an electoral committee, and the adoption of an electoral law that will guarantee free-and-fair elections.” Le Temps, which appears in both French and Arabic, was more sceptical, however. “The political parties, which are still squabbling, will not be able to reach an agreement quickly,” it wrote. Another French-language daily, La Presse, lauded the efforts of the UGTT, which, together with three other civil society organisations, had succeeded “through intensive consultations” in bringing the Islamist Al-Nahda Movement and its opponents to the negotiating table. Nevertheless, the newspaper wondered whether the two sides had “truly grasped the fact that the dialogue has to succeed because it is the last chance”. It went on to observe that the dialogue had opened at a time of a new peak in the extremist violence in the country, causing the deaths of six National Guard members and policemen. The newspaper added that such terrorist acts “leave no room for doubt that the process of democratic transition has become a test of the last hope of salvation”. The government-owned Al-Sabah, which appears in Arabic, focused on the possible candidates for prime minister after the resignation of Laarayedh, with names commonly mooted including former minister of defence Abdel-Karim Al-Zobeidi, economist Mansour Maali, politician Ahmed Al-Mastiri, former Central Bank governor Mustafa Al-Nabli, the director of the Al-Araf Organisation Widad Boushamawi, former finance minister Jeloul Ayyad, former social affairs minister Mohamed Nasser, and Noureddin Hashad, the son of union leader Farahat Hashad. Of these, Widad Boushamawi could be the strongest contender as she enjoyed the esteem of all the Tunisian political parties, Al-Sabah said. However, the newspaper quoted Boushamawi herself as saying that she would not accept the premiership if it was offered to her because her energies were focused on the economy and how to stimulate recovery. Some observers have suggested that of the names cited, Jeloul Ayyad could be the best able to contribute to the remainder of the transitional period, whether as Laarayedh's successor as prime minister or as minister of finance in the new government. They cite his previous experience in overseeing the ministry of finance in the former Beji Caid Al-Sebsi government. Other assets in his favour are his international experience and the expertise he has gained in the course of his long career in the worlds of banking and finance. However, such speculation may be premature. The national dialogue has only just begun, and the prospect that any one of these candidates, or even another one, will succeed Laarayedh as prime minister is contingent on the progress of the negotiations which, according to all observers, are unlikely to be smooth.
