In the early days of his first term, back in 2008, US President Barack Obama put together an initiative to revive peace talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis. The initiative, based on a two-state solution and a halt of settlement building, was snubbed almost on the spot by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. This was followed by an interruption in the peace talks that lasted for three years or so. By the time Obama started his second term, in 2012, it was clear that he didn't want to get personally involved in a new attempt to revive the peace talks. Instead, he gave the job to John Kerry, his newly appointed secretary of state. Kerry came to the region several times to explore prospects for the resumption of talks, and managed to convince Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to send delegations to Washington, where negotiations restarted 29 July. Meanwhile, Kerry appointed Martin Indyk, former ambassador to Israel, as a special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. But just how much of a chance do the talks have? Let's not forget that every single round of talks that was held in more than two decades came to a disappointing ending: the 1991 Madrid Conference, the 1993 Oslo Accords, the 2000 Bill Clinton-sponsored talks, the 2003 George W Bush-sponsored talks. Scepticism is in order, if only because Netanyahu has made it clear that he has no interest in a two-state solution. The Israeli prime minister has never done anything to indicate encouragement or consent whenever the matter of a Palestinian state in the West Bank came up. For him, the West Bank is part of Israel's “Promised Land” and must be held at all costs. Abbas, meanwhile, is widely seen as a man of inadequate charisma and little popular support. As a leader, he may be reasonable and well intentioned. But having failed to reach a deal with Hamas, how can he be expected to make an international deal stick? Confidence building is nearly absent from the scene. The Israelis are still stopping and humiliating Palestinians at roadblocks. They are restricting prayers at Al-Aqsa Mosque and carrying out controversial excavations in its immediate vicinity. They are holding thousands of Palestinians in prison. Worse than all of the above is the fact that they keep carving off land to build more settlements in Palestinian territories. In the Palestinian home front, the scene is still chaotic. Hamas opposes the peace talks, and all efforts to reconcile Fatah and Hamas have so far foundered. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been trying to persuade Hamas to embrace the Arab Peace Initiative, but to no avail. But if Hamas is convinced to offer its consent to the Arab initiative, and if it is reconciled with Fatah, things may change. There are signs that the Arab Peace Initiative may be gaining a measure of international support, and the Israelis have dropped hints that they may be willing to make it the basis of a future agreement. So many issues remain to be discussed: borders, settlements, Palestinian refugees and Jerusalem. But the most important of these issues is that of borders. If agreement is reached about the borders, everything else will fall into place. A deal on borders can offer an answer to the problem of settlements, pave the way to a deal on security, and reassure the Palestinians about the viability of their future state. One reason for hope: Saeb Ereikat, the chief Palestinian negotiator, says that the Palestinians have been given written guarantees that the peace process will be based on the 1967 borders, adjusted through land swaps. The talks, which will last six to nine months, will cover all final status issues: Jerusalem, borders, settlements, refugees, water, security and prisoners. If successful, the talks may lead to the release of all prisoners detained before 1994. Meanwhile, the US administration reiterated its position that settlements were illegal, and promised to make efforts to curb Israeli settlement-building activities. All of the optimism so far is based on US promises rather than Israeli pledges. The issue of the settlements is the most intricate of all the pending issues, as it can block the future viability of a Palestinian state. And yet, as talks began, the Israelis declared their intention to build 1,000 more housing units in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Although Israel released 100 Palestinian prisoners in a symbolic gesture, it is still arresting dozens of Palestinians every day. None of the above seems to discourage Secretary Kerry, who told Arab foreign ministers, when he met them 8 September in Paris, that the US administration is going to make the talks a success, and finish them on schedule. But so far, Obama is not saying much about the talks. And if the US administration has a master plan for a solution, it is keeping it secret.
The writer is managing director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.
