However optimistic the comments of politicians, Lebanon's future remains hanging by a thread, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif from Beirut Two cars carrying explosives were patrolling the streets of Beirut. One, the story went, had a Syrian number plate, the second an Iraqi one. The rumour spread like wildfire. Such rumours reflect the fear and suspicion that is gripping Lebanon. The three-week-old clashes in Nahr Al-Bared refugee camp, the outbreak of fighting in Ain Al-Helwa camp in Saidon and the resumption of bombings this week in Sad Al-Boucharia all show -- as if any more proof was needed -- how fragile this country is, and how little it takes to push Lebanon to the brink of instability. As final ratification of the international tribunal that will try those suspected of involvement in the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri approaches, Lebanese official sources remained optimistic about the post-tribunal period. Those close to Saad Al-Hariri, head of the majority bloc in the assembly and of Tayar Al-Mustaqbal, spoke about "a new political era" beginning on 10 June, the date set by the UN for the tribunal to open proceedings. This new era, they say, will address major points of contention, including the formation of a national unity government, though details were few and far between. Hizbullah, which is spearheading the opposition along with Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, has already said it is ready to cooperate with any one "to save Lebanon through the formation of a national unity government". And this, pointed out Sheikh Naim Qassim in a speech on Monday, should pave the way for the constitutional presidential elections due next September. Meanwhile, the press has begun to speak about a possible breakthrough in the Nahr Al-Bared crisis, interpreting reports that six members of Fatah Al-Islam had surrendered to Fatah as evidence that the group was collapsing in the face of heavy Lebanese army strikes. Yet by Tuesday, what began as a justified response by the Lebanese army against a group that had attacked and killed its soldiers, began to look more like a trap. When fighting broke out briefly between the army and members of Jund Al-Sham group in Ain Al-Helwa refugee camp on Sunday another front appeared to be opening up on which the army could not afford to be defeated. Clashes in Ain Al-Helwa strengthened fears that conflict could spread to any of the 12 Palestinian refugees camps dotted across the country, leading to the Lebanese army becoming bogged down in a war of attrition. Although Lebanese politicians of all stripes continued to support the military operations the army seems increasingly to have been left to manage the crisis alone. The army has emerged as the single state institution over which a national consensus exists. Yet at a time when the presidency, the assembly and the cabinet divide rather than unite the Lebanese, the army is now fighting on several fronts and fears are growing that the current confrontation with Fatah Al-Islam in Nahr Al-Bared and the skirmishes with Jund al-Sham in Ain Al-Helwa are a deliberate attempt to sabotage the one institution capable of safeguarding Lebanon. "There is a persistent question," wrote Ibrahim Al-Amin in the daily Al-Akhbar. "Why has the army -- out of all state security apparatuses -- been left to fight the Islamist groups when it is the intelligence unit of the Interior Ministry that has charge of this particular file?" Ayoub Hmeid, a Lebanese MP, accused Fouad Al-Siniora's government of "forcing the army into a battle it should be fighting". Not that this is the first time the Lebanese army has launched an offensive against Islamist groups. In 1997, in the north of Lebanon, it led a fierce battle against a group that came to be known as the Salafis of Addhenyia. Many group members were released in 2005, re- emerging as the backbone of Islamist groups in Palestinian camps such as Jund Al-sham and Fatah Al-Islam. Three weeks into the fighting, the Lebanese army finds itself between a rock and a hard place. It must finish its mission no matter the cost yet the political schism which is tearing the country into two camps does not provide it with the political cover it needs to achieve its avowed goal -- the surrender of all members of Fatah Al-Islam to the Lebanese army. Army Chief Michel Suleiman insists the army has no time frame for the completion of its operations against Nahr Al-Bared but remains in favour of a political rather than a military settlement. And while military intervention in the camp itself has until recently been ruled out, this week witnessed a change of tone, particularly from the army leadership. Frustrated by the failure to end the crisis politically it threatened to use "all possible means" to restore the army's dignity. While Suleiman has vowed not to relent until those who attacked the army are under arrest, Defence Minister Elias Al-Murr concedes the army is fighting "a difficult battle [to safeguard] Lebanon and the Lebanese people". While a knock-out victory over the group is unlikely, the army hopes that a settlement that leads to disarming Fatah Al-Islam will send a message to similar groups in other Palestinian camps. Most observers, though, point out that such groups could not have come to the fore within the camps without being aided by outside forces who, in an attempt to strengthen their own power bases, have been seeking to build alliances. As one commentator explained, such groups could never have mushroomed had there not been a tacit decision to allow it to happen, with Saad Al-Hariri helping groups in the north, and Bahiya Al-Hariri, Lebanese MP and sister of the late Rafik Al-Hariri, helping those in Saidon, the aim being to create a Sunni militia to face Hizbullah. In a statement issued on Sunday Bahiya Al-Hariri, while skirting accusations of funding Jund Al-Sham, insisted that her motive in helping Palestinians in the camps was to "protect the army's back".
