Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad escalated his confrontation with the international community last week by threatening to remain in power forever, while the country's opposition abroad has been continuing to plan for the country's post-Al-Assad phase as if he were leaving tomorrow. These contradictions paint a surreal picture of the Syrian crisis. During the 22 months of the uprising against the regime in Syria, Arab and Western states, as well as the UN, have proposed various initiatives to end the crisis. But all these initiatives have failed, as have efforts to convince the Syrian regime to stop the violence and agree to a peaceful resolution that would transform the country into a pluralist and democratic state with rotation of power. As each new proposal has failed, the level of violence has intensified and clashes between the army and the armed revolutionary brigades have escalated. According to the UN, some 60,000 civilians have now been killed in the conflict. Al-Assad's recent speech on the crisis facing the country proposed an impossible diplomatic solution and outlined a roadmap that seemed to have come from the military operations room and not from the corridors of politics. Under this plan, the political solution would be carried out under the supervision of the regime and its president, while the battles on the ground would be run under the supervision of the military forces. Negotiations would only be with “those who have not betrayed the country” Al-Assad said, indicating that he would be the one to choose who to negotiate with. The president confirmed that in his view he alone should decide the rules of the political solution, with the opposition viewing his words as a call for war against the people. Meanwhile, the Syrian people and the international community looked to the three-way meeting between Russia, the US and UN and Arab envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, expecting it to result in a binding roadmap that would guarantee the peaceful transfer of power in Syria and bring about stability. However, they were disappointed in the outcome, since the talks ended without a breakthrough. Five hours of talks in Geneva between the assistant secretaries of state of Russia and the US together with Brahimi brought the situation back to square one with no solution in sight to the crisis. The so-called Geneva 2 meeting had not been organised in the same way as last year's Geneva 1 meeting, but all it resulted in was a confirmation that all present supported Brahimi in his mission. The US continued to reject any role for Al-Assad in the future of Syria, while Russia, the main supplier of weapons to Damascus, continued to reject the idea of Al-Assad's departure as a precondition for negotiations with the opposition. Iran and China continue to support Moscow, while the European and Gulf states back Washington's position. The Geneva meeting confirmed ideas that had earlier been agreed on, including the formation of a transitional government with a full mandate. However, on the controversial issues of Al-Assad's departure and the supervision of the Syrian army and security agencies no progress was made. Brahimi said at the end of the meeting that he was “not confident” that a solution on Syria was near. Meanwhile, opposition groups outside Syria are continuing to consult on the post-Al-Assad phase and are forming a transitional government. Yet, it is still unclear how the present regime is to be toppled when it appears to be strong enough to continue in power for many more months and perhaps even years. A few days ago, the Syrian National Council (SNC) announced its plan for the transitional phase and the transfer of power after the regime is toppled. This plan was later approved by the National Coalition, which said that the coalition would choose an interim government and Al-Assad and the key figures of his regime would step down “in line with the demands of the people”. The coalition would be in charge of all legislative and executive powers and would dissolve the current government and parliament. It would also wind up the country's security agencies and Republican Guard and retire military leaders. It would release political prisoners and suspend the current constitution, as well as overseeing the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the rest of the regular armed forces. A political process would start that would give rise to a comprehensive national conference after which the coalition itself would be dissolved. The coalition has asked the international community to hand over Syria's seats in the Arab League and the UN, as well as the frozen assets of the regime, to the transitional government. However, this plan seems unlikely to succeed, especially since the more than 114 countries that withdrew the Syrian regime's legitimacy by recognising the coalition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people have not yet offered anything to accompany this recognition that will change the balance of power in its favour. Asked whether the opposition was jumping the gun by planning the post-Al-Assad stage, coalition spokesman Walid Al-Bonni told Al-Ahram Weekly that “I do not deny the importance of the transitional phase, but I believe that focusing on this and forgetting the tyrant in Damascus who is still killing Syrians and destroying the country makes me angry. The tragedy of the Syrian people is bringing disgrace on humanity.” Developments on the ground are also unlike the abstract ideas the political opposition abroad is proposing. Armed revolutionary brigades have been trying to take control of the ground, and over the past few days they succeeded in making progress when they seized Teftinaz Airport, the largest military airport in the country. A large swath of northern Syria is now controlled by opposition fighters, and regime attempts to recover the territories it has lost have failed. Opposition combatants insist that their only option is to topple the regime through military means without foreign military intervention. The revolutionary brigades led by the FSA state that after 60,000 people have been killed and some cities completely destroyed a political solution with Al-Assad is no longer possible. They reject “half-solutions” that could exonerate the head and pillars of the regime, saying that they will continue until they achieve their goal despite what they describe as “the inaction of the world community”. The revolutionaries on the ground describe the proposed political solution from the SNC and the Coalition as “daydreams”, claiming that those wanting to negotiate with the regime are indulging in wishful thinking. Al-Assad, they say, will never abandon power except under pressure, and that a solution must be imposed through military force. Al-Assad has used the vacuum on the international stage to propose an unacceptable initiative, and the West, headed by the US, has shown nothing but confusion on the crisis. While it helped form the opposition Syrian National Council, it then shot this down and replaced it with the coalition. The West also attempted to unite opposition military commanders on the ground, but then blocked weapons supplies to them. It promised to support the FSA, but then put the Islamist Jabhat Al-Nusra group on its terrorism list. It invited the opposition to form a transitional government, but then asked it to wait. Washington has declared that it does not want to see “extremist Islamists” take power in Syria, but such people account for no more than 10 per cent of the armed opposition. Even so, Washington has still blocked the supply of weapons to all of the armed opposition. Meanwhile, Russia has wanted to restore its glory through the Syrian crisis, declaring its opposition to foreign intervention in Syria. However, Moscow itself continues to interfere heavily by sending weapons and military experts to assist the regime. Russia has warned of the danger of sectarian war in Syria, but in reality it does not want the Islamists to revive its nightmare in Chechnya. The Syrian dilemma has become one where almost anything seems possible. Observers even believe that there may be malicious collusion between East and West and the Arab world at the expense of Syria. While Arab and international confusion could prevent the opposition from overthrowing the regime any time soon, it could also allow the regime to annihilate the opposition. Except for Iran, most of the world has decided to quarantine Al-Assad and his regime. Even Russia has stated that it cannot defend Al-Assad. The armed revolutionary brigades are now more self-reliant, making them more resilient and capable of hurting the regime by relying on captured arms and a funding network that could once and for all end the Al-Assad regime in Syria.
