Libya's new masters face enormous hurdles

For 42 years, during the long rule of Moammar Gadhafi, the Libyan government barely even existed: state institutions had little power, the military was kept purposefully weak, tribal divisions were magnified

Gaddafi was the Brother Leader, the Guide of the Revolution, the King of Kings of Africa. He had no need for an effective government.
Now, a motley assortment of rebels who have forced Gaddafi from power must move fast to create what modern Libya never had, from the rule of law to an inclusive political system.
It's a tall order, but the alternative could be similar to post-Saddam Iraq.
"Don't expect miracles. If you want miracles, look for them elsewhere," a rebel spokesman, Mahmoud Shammam, warned Saturday.
"We don't want to repeat the experience of Baghdad," Mahmoud Jibril, deputy chairman of the rebels' National Transitional Council, said after opposition fighters poured into Tripoli, heralding the end of Gaddafi's regime, although the leader himself is still missing. "The whole world is looking at Libya. We must not sully the final page of the revolution." But the signals are far from clear, and the challenges to the rebels - a disparate group that includes former Gaddafi insiders, wealthy businessmen and semiautonomous militias - are enormous.
Authoritarian Arab rulers like Iraq's Saddam Hussein and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak managed to prevent simmering tensions from boiling over during most of their long years in power, creating the appearance of stability while unwittingly sowing the seeds of future violence.
Saddam's 2003 ouster after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, for example, unleashed a seismic wave of sectarian violence in which tens of thousands were killed. In Egypt, Mubarak's 11 February departure sparked a surge in crime, an explosion of labour unrest and the emergence of Islamists as a powerful political force.
Libya faces many of the same challenges as those countries, and in some ways even more. Because while Gaddafi seized power in a coup and held no formal title, he had fewer limits on power than any other Arab leader.
Libyan society was, in effect, governed by his whims.
"A lot of good can be said about the (rebel) National Transitional Council, but no one knows whether this will be enough once it is in charge after the end of civil war," said Dirk J. Vandewalle, a Libya expert at Dartmouth College in the United States.
He cited a range of potential fault lines, including regional tensions, tribal rivalries and the divide between opposition politicians who remained in Libya under Gaddafi and those who fled into exile.
Certainly, the rebels are trying. After sweeping into Tripoli, they formed a new, 24-member city council, announcing it with a declaration in an empty ballroom at a luxury hotel Thursday even as battles raged with pro-Gaddafi holdouts elsewhere in the city. Only a handful of members were able to attend, braving the bullets of pro-Gaddafi snipers perched on the rooftops of high-rise buildings.
In some neighborhoods, the rebels have also helped organise garbage collection - a major issue, with months of trash piled up on street corners - and many city residents, enjoying their new freedom, are pitching in.
While most shops remain closed, local councils are springing up across Tripoli. In the Souk al-Jumma neighborhood, a former police lieutenant, Shukri Dernawi, is organising a local police force.
"We are starting from almost zero point in this situation," said Shammam, the rebels' spokesman.
Jibril, the rebel deputy chairman, outlined a roadmap for the country's transition to democratic rule this week during a visit to Paris. He said a "national congress" would soon be formed to create a committee to draft a constitution. Parliamentary elections will be held within four months after the document is written, and the speaker of the legislature will act as president until presidential elections are held.
Officials say an interim government should be operating in Tripoli within a month.
But a smooth transition to democracy could be undermined in many ways.
This country has never experienced democratic rule and it is by no means certain that a multiparty system would work in Libya, where much of life is guided by tribal loyalties.
Signs also have emerged that the rebels leadership is unable to ensure discipline among its fighters.
Arguments often erupt among rebels manning checkpoints across the city over whether to let motorists pass. When regime loyalists are detained, some of the captors slap or push them, while others try to restrain their more aggressive colleagues, especially when foreign journalists are present.
Associated Press reporters in Tripoli have seen rebels kicking and spitting on wounded Gaddafi loyalists as they were being taken to a hospital, though, in other cases, regime loyalists have been treated side by side with wounded rebel fighters.
The International Committee of the Red Cross has expressed concern about the treatment of detainees by both sides, but has given no specifics.
There are also fears that the spread of weapons could be used for revenge attacks or other crimes. But Dernawi, the new local police chief, said he hasn't had any reports of feuds being settled with gunfire despite the proliferation of arms in the streets.
Jibril, fearing a security vacuum, formed a security committee with all the main rebel factions represented. The new body will coordinate the city's security with neighborhood committees across Tripoli.
Muslim militants within the rebel ranks also could try to dominate in areas where they wield influence, enforcing a strict interpretation of Islam that would sideline liberal-minded Libyans and alarm the West.
That threat became all the more clear when a close Gaddafi aide who changed sides to become the rebels' chief military commander was murdered late last month. Abdel-Fattah Younis' body was found dumped outside the eastern city of Benghazi, the rebels' de facto capital, along with two of his aides. The rebel leadership has insisted the assassination was the work of the Gaddafi regime, but several witnesses say Younis was killed by fellow rebels.
The slaying, which was widely blamed on militants, has fueled concerns about unity and discipline within the rebel movement.
"There are rebel factions that are not controlled by the National Transitional Council and there have already been extrajudicial killings," said Hassiba Hadj Sahraoui, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program for Amnesty International. "The two biggest challenges ahead are security and the judiciary. Every law in Libya needs to be reformed."