Syria faces slide into sectarian mayhem

With no tipping point in sight for the Syrian uprising, both the opposition and the Assad regime face the spectre of sectarian strife, spelling danger for the two sides

The popular uprising in Syria is growing bolder and the cracks in the establishment are getting deeper -- yet there is a long and bloody road ahead if protesters are to unseat President Bashar al-Assad and end his family's 40 years in power.
The price of stalemate is rising daily: sectarian mayhem, a growing protest movement and a faltering economy, with no sign that Bashar and his minority Alawite clan are considering an exit strategy after four decades in power.
Yet so far, there is no sign of a tipping point that would assure success for protesters, as in Tunisia and Egypt, where millions took to the streets to topple autocratic leaders.
"The situation has not reached a critical mass," said Patrick Seale, biographer of Bashar's father, Hafez al-Assad.
"Damascus hasn't risen, the security services haven't split yet, the economy hasn't collapsed. The regime looks weak and the opposition looks weaker," he said.
Sectarian killings in the city of Homs this month may be a foretaste for a country with an ethnic and religious mix and a long history of repression by the Alawite-led security forces.
The Alawite sect, an off-shoot of Shiite Islam, is a minority in Syria, which has a Sunni Muslim majority, as well as smaller numbers of Druze, Christians and non-Arab Kurds.
A group of Alawite men, including four security men, went missing on 14 July. The bodies of four of them were found killed. Some Alawites from their neighbourood in Homs took to the streets, torched and destroyed shops belonging to Sunnis.
The danger of sectarian strife is real, analysts say. It might even appeal to the authorities -- and some of their opponents -- as a way to break the deadlock. But it carries high risks for the Assad dynasty, as well as the opposition.
"This is a dangerous strategy for a regime trying to survive," said Eugene Rogan, director of the Middle East Centre at Oxford University. "You watch your army disintegrate if sectarianism becomes an issue."
Analysts say the Homs killings were provoked by a ferocious security clampdown, including the arrest, disappearance and torture to death of hundreds of men. Islamists, long persecuted by the security forces, have their own axe to grind.
"The security solution hasn't worked. The regime has decided to go for civil strife because it senses that it is losing. The protests are spilling over and spreading to the capital," said a Damascus-based Arab journalist who declined to be named.
Alawite villagers say authorities have been arming young men to fight the insurgency. Mutilated bodies of some Shabbiha men, handed over by security forces to their families for burial, served to incite sectarian hatred in those villages.
Sectarian paranoia is evident, with Assad trusting only two elite units commanded by his brother Maher -- the 4th Armoured Division and the Republican Guard -- as well as secret police and Alawite militia, known as Shabbiha, to deal with dissent.
"The coherence (of the security forces) is already in question. Sectarianism is already a problem, the loyalty of other units cannot be counted on," Rogan said.
While the authorities blame the upheaval on a "bunch of Islamists", the reality appears more complex.
Some Syria-watchers say the protest movement is driven mainly by youths and includes rural Sunni tribes, nationalists, leftists, secularists and also Islamists, united in their goal of overthrowing an autocratic and corrupt government.
Geographically, the protests have spread since March to many rural and tribal regions, cities such as Hama and Homs, and even to Damascus, although not on a huge scale in the capital.
Security forces and Shabbiha militiamen, armed with metal bars, are everywhere. The army has deployed tanks around the main cities to keep out protesters from the countryside.
"The savagery of the regime has increased 180 degrees. The hostility against it has massively increased too among ordinary people, not just protesters. There are widescale arrests in all areas, in cities and villages," the Syrian journalist said.
Residents said the Alawite units, though overstretched, have stepped up their offensive and are showing resilience in facing the growing demonstrations. The protest movement, however, is growing and showing no sign of dying down, residents add.
In a country where once no one dared utter a word against the president, chants such as: "Bashar you butcher we won't rest until we bury you" show how fearless the activists have become.
Graffiti on rubbish bins read: "Bashar: this is your final grave."
Toppling the system, analysts say, is hazardous because of Syria's power structure under which Alawites hold key posts in the military and Assad family insiders run the key security bodies, tying senior officers closely to Assad's own fate.
Sarkis Naoum, an expert on Syrian affairs, said Assad was not likely to be overthrown quickly, but the conflict could develop into a bloody civil war.
"It is not clear how it would evolve and how much time it would take. The regime cannot win and also the opposition cannot win either," said Naoum, a columnist at Beirut's an-Nahar daily.
What complicates the Syrian scene is that the Assads will fight to the end rather than leave because they fear that their family and their sect would be targeted under Sunni rule.
"The Assads won't relinquish power. They are refusing reform because it will make them have to give up power," Naoum said.
Rogan said that Assad's departure was not imminent. "It is a long way before we reach the point where Bashar has to go. The regime is a lot stronger than people like to think but Assad is weak and has no sense of leadership."
The protests have virtually crippled Damascus. Shops open for a few hours during the day and close early. Business activity is grounded and many people have lost their jobs.
The city, which once buzzed with night life, is tense and eerie after dark. Signs of stretched resources and a strained economy are very evident.
The Syrian economy could prove to be Assad's curse. With no end in sight to the crackdown on protesters, the country's key revenue streams look shattered. A more marked decline in Syria's economic health may force the regime to fall.