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US debt ceiling brinkmanship rattles investors
World stocks feel the impact from political wrangling in Washington after a short rally over the Greek bailout package
Published in Ahram Online on 25 - 07 - 2011


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Political brinkmanship in Washington over the U.S. debt ceiling hit world stocks on Monday and pushed money into safe-haven gold and Swiss francs, ending a brief relief rally over Greece's second bailout package.
Prospects of a budget breakthrough that would allow the United States to raise its debt ceiling and avoid default on its bond payments faded over the weekend as lawmakers missed a self-imposed deadline to produce a deal.
Further discussions were planned for Monday, however, and most investors have been banking on a last-minute deal.
Raising the borrowing limit would avoid default, but would not necessarily end the threat by rating agencies to cut the U.S. economy's coveted triple-A rating, vulnerable because of the huge U.S. debt burden.
"The markets were hopeful that by now something would have been agreed. I don't think a U.S. debt default has been completely ruled out by the markets," said Keith Bowman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
A U.S. default would have massive repercussions on financial instruments across the board, in part because U.S. Treasuries are the benchmark to which the performance of many other assets are judged.
Bowman said the issue had overshadowed a somewhat better-than-expected earnings season for stock investors.
It has also undermined what succour investors were taking from last week's euro zone deal to bail out Greece and stop -- at least for now -- contagion to larger euro economies.
MSCI's all-country world stock index was down 0.4 per cent with emerging markets losing 0.9 per cent.
The FTSEurofirst 300 was down 0.4 per cent. Japan's Nikkei earlier closed 0.8 per cent lower.
The mood prompted investor flows in to the Swiss franc and gold, both of which are the safe haven of choice in the current market climate.
The dollar fell 1.4 per cent against the Swiss currency and the euro lost 1.6 per cent. Otherwise the dollar was flat against a basket of major currencies.
"The U.S. will have to come up with a credible long-term plan in order to avert a downgrade," said Manuel Oliveri, currency strategist at UBS in Zurich.
"The increasing risk of a downgrade means declining confidence in U.S. assets and the risk of capital outflows, which is a negative for the dollar against the Swiss franc and the yen," he added.
Gold surged to a record high above $1,620 an ounce in Asian trading, the fifth record high for bullion in less than two weeks.
Spot gold , which has risen nearly 14 per cent so far this year, climbed more than 1 percent to a record $1,622.49 an ounce before easing to around $1,617.
Yields were slightly higher on U.S. Treasuries and flat to lower on core euro zone debt.


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