The Syrian-Iranian relationship that was booming is now possibly going sour, as erstwhile hidden signs of tensions have recently bubbled to the surface quite openly between the two allies. To analyse the nature of this relationship, one should look at the ideology of the two regimes. This leads to a further question: What is the basis of their alliance and is it enough to form a strategic alliance or rather could it be a tactical one facing certain dangers? The Baath regime in Damascus is secular. It does not tolerate political Islam, but at the same time is against keeping religious scholars in custody. The Welayet El-Faqih or the custody of the Guide in Iran is against the ideology of Baath in general, and therefore also considers the Iraqi Baath its first enemy. Although there are differences between the Syrian and Iraqi Baath movement, these are due more to conflicts between rulers and their explanations of the ideology, than the ideology itself. For example, being far from the military front with Israel, Iraq's Baath refused to accept any form of peace deal, while the Syrian regime has been engaged in the peace process since 1973. The Syrian regime, which viewed Iraq as an enemy, sought regional support to defend its back in the shape of Iran, and at the same time, Iran played on Syrian-Iraqi differences during the Iran-Iraq war. But Syrian President Bashar al-Assad supported Saudi Arabia against Houthis and this angered Iran. More than this, Iran sees the rapprochement of Syrian-Saudi relations as a direct loss. At least officially, Syria supports the United Arab Emirates in their bid to regain the three Islands Iran currently occupies. Governmental strategists use mental exercises to explore possible situations and to clear red lines. No doubt, Iranian strategists have asked the question: What would Syria do if they attacked a Gulf state and an international alliance was formed? Would Syria share in the alliance as it did in the liberation of Kuwait? Most probably, the answer would not be in their favour. In Damascus, many security officials are unhappy with Iranian Hosaynias that provide social facilities and financial support for families that abandon the Sunni faith and become Shi'ite. They see this as a Shi'ite version of the Muslim Brotherhood and a direct threat to the regime. The positive development of Syrian-Saudi relations and Gulf investment in Syria are the solutions to contain the influence of these Hosaynias, which may well explain Iranian discontent with the visits taking place between the Saudi monarch and the Syrian President. When Syria began Turkish-sponsored indirect negotiations with Israel, Tehran predicted the end of its strategic relations, particularly because the Syrian President described Turkey as a strategic ally, while Iran wanted this title exclusively. Yet it contained the crisis because it wanted to use the Syrian and Lebanese files to serve its regional ambitions and nuclear file. Moreover, if Iran and Syria renounced their association it would mark the end of Hizbollah, which Iran uses to wage proxy wars when it desires. Why did Syria start to redefine its relationship with Iran? Firstly, in distancing itself from Iran, Syria hopes to be less of a target, should Iran be attacked by the West or Israel in the future. Syria is interested in developing relations with the US; but they know this can only happen if Iran's relationship with the country is sidelined. For example, after talks with the US Ambassador, Syria showed willingness for the US to join Turkey in sponsoring its talks with Israel. Some say, therefore, that Syria will severe relations with Iran in return for the Golan Heights, as well as better relations with the US. Responding to this, Iran has refused to use Syria as the mediator between it and the West in Iran's nuclear talks. Iran too showed discontent when the Syrian and Turkish armies carried out military exercises together. Some Iranian commentators have called this a bad omen for the future, as Turkey is a member of NATO. But perhaps the most important sign that Syria is looking to distance itself from Iran is the fact that last year, Syrian authorities turned down an Iranian request to send intelligence experts to investigate the assassination of Emad Moghnia. As efforts continue towards a successful peace process, both Syria and Iran will try to play the cards, which were previously held tight to the irchests. Through proxy wars, Iran will attempt to ruin the process. Syria will drop Iranian and Hizbollah cards when the US is ready to exert pressure on Israel to leave the Golan Heights. [email protected] Hany is an Egyptian writer, who regularly contributes to the Mail.
