CAIRO - Although he knows little about the details of today's referendum in South Sudan, Mohamed Hassan, a taxi driver from Ain Shams district of northeastern Cairo, is sure that what is happening there will affect Egypt sooner or later. "Of course it will have a bad impact on our share of the Nile water and security in the South," claims Hassan, who, like many other Egyptians, thinks that the division of Sudan is part of a bigger conspiracy against Egypt and the rest of the Arab world. "We must be ready to deal with problems that will come from the South.” Many Egyptians are apprehensive about the results of the referendum, especially if it doesn't go smoothly. Most of them react emotionally at the possibility of the separation of a neighbouring country, while about 60 Muslims clerics have issued a fatwa (religious edict) proscribing voting for secession. To Iglal R'afat, a professor of political science at Cairo University, this conspiracy theory does not make. “We should see the secession of South Sudan as a new reality that we have to learn how to deal with,” she told The Egyptian Gazette. According to her, the real danger to Egypt will be if the violence erupts again. “Both sides seem to want a peaceful referendum, but leaving hot issues like the border demarcation, sharing oil and the problem of the Abyei region unresolved may lead to violence soon, which would have bad consequences for everyone in the region,” She warned. "But if the referendum goes peacefully most of the problems that might emerge will be easily resolved, as long as Egypt treats them wisely," she stresses, adding that the water issue and influx of refugees into Egypt are two of the main threats. "No-one knows what will happen. Water wasn't mentioned at all in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement which ended Sudan's decades-long civil war, and even southern Sudanese officials have no clear vision about this issue," says R'afat. However, she adds that, although only less than 20 per cent of Egypt's water comes from South Sudan, many projects are underway there that could increase the Egyptian share of water. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit reiterates that Egypt's share of Nile waters will not be affected by the independence of the South, adding that President Hosni Mubarak's December 21, 2010 visit to this African country was meant to ensure its stability. Ayman Raslan, an international law expert, says that the issue of the water will be of great importance for the infant nation, especially when two million southern Sudanese, who live in North Sudan, return home. "Unfortunately, Nile Basin countries have yet to come up with a unified agreement to divide water among themselves, so it's difficult to know about the share of the new country," Raslan explained. He is worried that the nascent state in the South may join the upstream countries battling Egypt for a bigger share of Nile waters. Raslan sees that the possibility of violence erupting, whether between the North and the South or inside the South itself, is great. "And this will be very harmful for Egypt 's security," he warns, expecting many migrants might end up here. Egypt currently hosts about 18,000 registered southern Sudanese refugees, many displaced during decades of civil war in which an estimated two million people were killed and four million fled, destabilising much of East Africa. The number of unregistered refugees is higher. Raslan, who also brushes aside the conspiracy theory, says that the only solution to threats to Egypt's national security in the area is to maintain a presence there, offering the people support and encouraging good relations with Egypt. "An Egyptian presence will weaken the chances of any other power working there against Egyptian interests," he explains. According to R'afat, the political science professor, Egypt has done well to get involved in the many development projects underway in the South. "Although it's been a bit late, it's right to serve our interests there,” she continues, warning against dealing with the issue in an emotional way, as if the South were a part being taken from a brother Arab country. Till now, Egypt is the only Arab country to offer support to South Sudan, but some Sudanese media voices are still aggressive towards Egypt, describing it as an active supporter of North Sudan and workingto postpone secession.
