By the Gazette Editorial Board THE moment President Trump announced his country's withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal with Iran, he was so sure that his decision would divide the world between supporters and opponents of his decision. So why did he make this move that was expected to risk his relations with his close allies in Europe? Despite the tremendous efforts the leaders of three European countries: Germany, France and Britain, had exerted to convince him remain in the deal they jointly signed with Iran in 2015, together with Russia and China, Trump insisted on carrying out his threat of withdrawing from what he described as a rotten deal. In his opinion, a deal that only limited Iran's nuclear activities for a fixed period in time, had failed to stop the development of ballistic missiles and had handed Iran a $100b windfall that it used "as a slush fund for weapons, terror, and oppression" across the Middle East. The reasons cited by Trump may be true, in respect of the deal not imposing a full suspension of Iran's nuclear activities for good and the lack of an article curbing Iran's policy of expanding its influence in the region in a way that risks the security of its neighbours. However, does the withdrawal from the deal known by its acronym the JCPoA, help contain Iran's policy in the region, or convince it to give up its nuclear ambitions? The answer is a big no. Firstly, Iran which has the upper hand in many Arab countries today including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, would have a good excuse to continue with its policy of supporting the fanatic parties there, in a way that would increase instability and deepen sectarian division in these countries. And secondly, Trump's move against Tehran would also weaken the position of reformists in Iran, including President Hassan Rouhani himself, who was relying on this deal to restore Iran's good relations with the world. Following Trump's announcement of the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, Rouhani threatened to resume uranium enrichment on an industrial level and without any limitations. It is true that Rouhani promised to wait a few weeks to speak to allies and other signatories of the deal first, but he might eventually yield to the pressure of internal opposition by the hardliners, some of whom want Iran to break out, not just from the JCPoA but from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) altogether. Trump's withdrawal from the deal has not only pulled the carpet out from under his Iranian counterpart's feet, but might also provoke trouble across the Atlantic especially after the announcement by his three European allies (the UK, France and Germany) of their commitment to the deal. After speaking to each other on Tuesday evening, British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron made clear they would not let the agreement collapse. "Our governments remain committed to ensuring the agreement is upheld and will work with all the remaining parties to the deal to ensure this remains the case including through ensuring the continuing economic benefits to the Iranian people that are linked to the agreement," they stated. The key question will be how far the European countries are ready and able to protect their banks and firms from US sanctions, if they do business with Iran. US National Security Adviser John Bolton was reported as saying that European companies doing business with Iran would have to finish within six months or face US sanctions. Thus, Trump will not be satisfied with adopting a unilateral stand regarding the deal and re-imposing sanctions on Iran; he wants to force the other signatories to comply with his terms, that will bring nothing but more disorder and instability to the Middle East and the entire world. THE moment President Trump announced his country's withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal with Iran, he was so sure that his decision would divide the world between supporters and opponents of his decision. So why did he make this move that was expected to risk his relations with his close allies in Europe? Despite the tremendous efforts the leaders of three European countries: Germany, France and Britain, had exerted to convince him remain in the deal they jointly signed with Iran in 2015, together with Russia and China, Trump insisted on carrying out his threat of withdrawing from what he described as a rotten deal. In his opinion, a deal that only limited Iran's nuclear activities for a fixed period in time, had failed to stop the development of ballistic missiles and had handed Iran a $100b windfall that it used "as a slush fund for weapons, terror, and oppression" across the Middle East. The reasons cited by Trump may be true, in respect of the deal not imposing a full suspension of Iran's nuclear activities for good and the lack of an article curbing Iran's policy of expanding its influence in the region in a way that risks the security of its neighbours. However, does the withdrawal from the deal known by its acronym the JCPoA, help contain Iran's policy in the region, or convince it to give up its nuclear ambitions? The answer is a big no. Firstly, Iran which has the upper hand in many Arab countries today including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, would have a good excuse to continue with its policy of supporting the fanatic parties there, in a way that would increase instability and deepen sectarian division in these countries. And secondly, Trump's move against Tehran would also weaken the position of reformists in Iran, including President Hassan Rouhani himself, who was relying on this deal to restore Iran's good relations with the world. Following Trump's announcement of the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, Rouhani threatened to resume uranium enrichment on an industrial level and without any limitations. It is true that Rouhani promised to wait a few weeks to speak to allies and other signatories of the deal first, but he might eventually yield to the pressure of internal opposition by the hardliners, some of whom want Iran to break out, not just from the JCPoA but from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) altogether. Trump's withdrawal from the deal has not only pulled the carpet out from under his Iranian counterpart's feet, but might also provoke trouble across the Atlantic especially after the announcement by his three European allies (the UK, France and Germany) of their commitment to the deal. After speaking to each other on Tuesday evening, British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron made clear they would not let the agreement collapse. "Our governments remain committed to ensuring the agreement is upheld and will work with all the remaining parties to the deal to ensure this remains the case including through ensuring the continuing economic benefits to the Iranian people that are linked to the agreement," they stated. The key question will be how far the European countries are ready and able to protect their banks and firms from US sanctions, if they do business with Iran. US National Security Adviser John Bolton was reported as saying that European companies doing business with Iran would have to finish within six months or face US sanctions. Thus, Trump will not be satisfied with adopting a unilateral stand regarding the deal and re-imposing sanctions on Iran; he wants to force the other signatories to comply with his terms, that will bring nothing but more disorder and instability to the Middle East and the entire world.
