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Oil prices rise on fall in US crude inventories
Published in The Egyptian Gazette on 18 - 04 - 2018

SINGAPORE, April 18, 2018 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday, lifted by a reported decline in US crude inventories and by the ongoing risk of supply disruptions.
Brent crude oil futures were at $72.07 per barrel at 06:59 GMT, up 49 cents, or 0.7 per cent, from their last close.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.7 per cent, at $67.01 a barrel.
In the United States, crude inventories fell by 1 million barrels last week, to 428 million barrels, according to a weekly report by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday.
Official weekly US data will be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
Outside the United States, oil markets have been receiving general support due to a sense that there are high risks of supply disruptions, including a potentially spreading conflict in the Middle East, renewed US sanctions against Iran and falling output as a result of political and economic crisis in Venezuela.
"Oil prices are holding near three-year highs (reached earlier in April) for the time being, and with inventories back in line with normal levels, the supply glut of the last few years appears to be over," said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Australia's Rivkin Securities.
Beyond voluntary supply restrictions aimed at propping up prices led by the producer cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) since 2017, O'Loughlin said falling output in Venezuela due to its political and economic turmoil was supporting prices.
"OPEC production is currently lower than expected as a result of large declines in Venezuelan output caused by a deterioration in the economic situation there," he said.
The lower OPEC supplies come as demand is healthy, with China's refineries processing a record 12.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in March.
Dutch bank ING said in a note to clients that Brent had risen back above $70 per barrel in April "due to geopolitical risks along with some fundamentally bullish developments in the market".
It raised its average 2018 price forecast for Brent to $66.50 a barrel from $60.25, and its 2018 WTI forecast to $62.50 per barrel from $57.75.
For next year, however, ING expects lower prices due to rising US crude output, which has jumped by a quarter since mid-2016 to over 10.5 million bpd.
The structure of the Brent and WTI forward price curve also points to a tighter market this year than in 2019.


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