CAIRO: If the economy is growing, why can t I feel the effect? That s the question almost every man on the street is asking. If the numbers announced regularly by the government are accurate, then why can t the average person feel the difference? GDP has increased by LE 16 billion. Unemployment rates are down to nine percent. Inflation is at 10 percent. The numbers are correct, said renowned economist Samir Radwan, they are released from the Central Bank. There are three main reasons why the man on the street cannot feel the effects of [economic] growth: the short span of reform, macro-economic problems and the accumulation of debt, said Radwan. The reforms initiated by Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif s cabinet are still young, added Radwan, and have not had a chance to grow and prosper. The macroeconomic problems lie in the fiscal deficit, which takes 8 to 9 percent of GDP, and domestic debt, which reached 80 percent of the national income. The accumulation of debt has been building up for years, says Radwan, and to balance things we need to have constant growth that lasts decades. He says we should look to the countries of East Asia as an example - they have been experiencing high and constant growth for about 20 years. Impediments to economic growth include subsidies as well as the 5.7 million government workers, whose wages are considered a debt the government has to pay. Unemployment has recently become a two-headed monster. I believe that the problem is not with the number of available jobs, but rather with the quality of work offered on the Egyptian job market, said Radwan. There aren t enough jobs for highly-qualified graduates. If they do find good jobs, they are rarely paid enough to make a decent living. Another problem is the number of people who work for the informal sector, which has now reached 54 percent of the labor force. For people to believe in the reported economic growth, they need more than numbers. There needs to be hard core economic reform that provides tangible solutions.
