Egypt, Elsewedy review progress on Ain Sokhna phosphate complex    US employment cost index 3.6% up in year to June 2025    Egypt welcomes Canada, Malta's decision to recognise Palestinian state    Pakistan says successfully concluded 'landmark trade deal' with US    Sterling set for sharpest monthly drop since 2022    Egypt, Brazil sign deal to boost pharmaceutical cooperation    Modon Holding posts AED 2.1bn net profit in H1 2025    Egypt's Electricity Ministry says new power cable for Giza area operational    Egypt's Al-Sisi, Italian defence minister discuss Gaza, security cooperation    Egypt's FM discusses Gaza, Nile dam with US senators    Aid airdrops intensify as famine deepens in Gaza amid mounting international criticism    Egypt exports first high-tech potato seeds to Uzbekistan after opening market    Health minister showcases AI's impact on healthcare at Huawei Cloud Summit    On anti-trafficking day, Egypt's PM calls fight a 'moral and humanitarian duty'    Egypt strengthens healthcare partnerships to enhance maternity, multiple sclerosis, and stroke care    Egypt keeps Gaza aid flowing, total tops 533,000 tons: minister    Indian Embassy to launch cultural festival in Assiut, film fest in Cairo    Egyptian aid convoy heads toward Gaza as humanitarian crisis deepens    Culture minister launches national plan to revive film industry, modernise cinematic assets    I won't trade my identity to please market: Douzi    Sisi sends letter to Nigerian president affirming strategic ties    Two militants killed in foiled plot to revive 'Hasm' operations: Interior ministry    Egypt, Somalia discuss closer environmental cooperation    Egypt's EHA, Huawei discuss enhanced digital health    Foreign, housing ministers discuss Egypt's role in African development push    Egypt reveals heritage e-training portal    Three ancient rock-cut tombs discovered in Aswan    Sisi launches new support initiative for families of war, terrorism victims    Egypt expands e-ticketing to 110 heritage sites, adds self-service kiosks at Saqqara    Egypt's Irrigation Minister urges scientific cooperation to tackle water scarcity    Palm Hills Squash Open debuts with 48 international stars, $250,000 prize pool    On Sport to broadcast Pan Arab Golf Championship for Juniors and Ladies in Egypt    Golf Festival in Cairo to mark Arab Golf Federation's 50th anniversary    Germany among EU's priciest labour markets – official data    Paris Olympic gold '24 medals hit record value    A minute of silence for Egyptian sports    Russia says it's in sync with US, China, Pakistan on Taliban    It's a bit frustrating to draw at home: Real Madrid keeper after Villarreal game    Shoukry reviews with Guterres Egypt's efforts to achieve SDGs, promote human rights    Sudan says countries must cooperate on vaccines    Johnson & Johnson: Second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19    Egypt to tax bloggers, YouTubers    Egypt's FM asserts importance of stability in Libya, holding elections as scheduled    We mustn't lose touch: Muller after Bayern win in Bundesliga    Egypt records 36 new deaths from Covid-19, highest since mid June    Egypt sells $3 bln US-dollar dominated eurobonds    Gamal Hanafy's ceramic exhibition at Gezira Arts Centre is a must go    Italian Institute Director Davide Scalmani presents activities of the Cairo Institute for ITALIANA.IT platform    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



Ukraine, Russia flex muscles ahead of Independence Day
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been rising in recent weeks.
Published in Daily News Egypt on 22 - 08 - 2016

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been rising in recent weeks. Russian troops appear ready for military action against Ukraine, but observers say there would be little to gain. David Stern reports from Kyiv.
August brings a languid, enjoy-it-while-it-lasts air to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. The outdoor terraces of restaurants and cafes are filled, and families stroll in parks and along the tree-lined boulevards until the late evening, intent on savoring the season's last shimmering days.
But in recent years, the summer's end has been laced with anxiety. Two years ago, on Ukraine's Independence Day, August 24, Moscow-backed insurgents launched – with what was apparently overwhelming Russian military support – a comprehensive attack in the war in the country's east. Scores of Ukrainian soldiers were wounded, killed or captured, as the rebels pushed back the Kyiv forces and consolidated their grip in the Donbass region.
Last year, the fighting again escalated dramatically. Both the Ukrainian and Russian presidents, Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin, called emergency councils to address the rising violence, and analysts warned of the possibility of "full-scale war." In his Independence Day speech, President Poroshenko memorably referred to the two Russian-supported breakaway regions as "Mordor," the evil empire from "The Lord of the Rings."
And now, once more, the guns of August are growing louder. Ukrainian officials say that government forces' casualty toll is the highest since this time last year. Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, who are monitoring the conflict, say that the amount of heavy weapons on the front line has doubled in recent weeks, which both sides use to shell each other.
With the intensifying violence, concerns are also increasing that an all-out Russian attack could be around the corner. Kyiv officials, backed by western experts, say the Kremlin is bolstering its numbers on its border with Ukraine – 40,000 more troops, by some estimates. The Ukrainians also say Russia is shipping more weapons and machinery into the self-declared Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics. Russian forces have held major military exercises near Ukraine.
‘Ready to attack'
All the Kremlin needs is a pretext to attack, Kyiv says, which Russia already has put into place: Earlier this month, Russian officials claimed they had foiled an attempt by Ukrainian special forces to enter Russian-annexed Crimea and carry out "terrorist attacks." The Ukrainians, the Kremlin said, opened fire and two Russian soldiers were killed. A Ukrainian man, Yevhen Panov, was allegedly captured and accused of wanting to blow up strategic infrastructure in Crimea.
"We will not let this pass," said Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, adding that Kyiv was playing a "dangerous game." Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov echoed him and promised "exhaustive measures."
The Ukrainians countered that these accusations were "hysterical and false." Euroepan Council President Donald Tusk backed up Kyiv, calling the Kremlin's version of events "unreliable.
Nevertheless, President Poroshenko announced he was putting their forces on high alert and that the risk of further escalation was "high."
"I do not exclude a full-scale invasion on all fronts," he said, adding that, if necessary, he could introduce martial law.
Ukrainian show of force
Ukraine marks its Independence Day this year on Wednesday with the biggest military display in the country's history: More than 3,000 troops and 200 pieces of military hardware will parade down Khreschatik street, the capital's central thoroughfare.
The main reason for this show of martial power is the country's 25th anniversary of achieving its freedom from the Soviet Union. But equally it will be a gesture to Moscow that the Ukrainian army is a force not to be trifled with, as well to the Ukrainian population that the country's defense is in reliable hands.
And indeed they have something to celebrate. More than two years ago, when the fighting in the East began, the Ukrainian army barely existed. Now, although perhaps still unable to defeat the Russian army outright, it has at least fought Moscow to a standstill.
But the war is far from over and the number of dead, now close to 10,000, continues to climb. For some the best realistic outcome would be one of those "frozen conflicts" that smolder elsewhere in the former Soviet sphere, but even that seems a long way off.
‘Little to gain'
Could the Russians now launch a major offensive? The response to this is another question: What would they have to gain from this?
Yes, analysts say, Russian troops seem arranged in preparation for some sort of military action. But to push further into Ukrainian territory would be to risk major casualties, public backlash at home and the loss of any chance to have Western sanctions lifted. Even a limited attack – aimed at intimidating the Ukrainians and providing a swift victory before Duma elections next month – risks a similar outcome.
At the moment, seen from west of the conflict zone, Moscow's most likely strategy seems to be one of three scenarios, or a combination:
One, to try to provoke the Ukrainians into launching their own offensive.
Two, to continue the pressure on Kyiv in hopes of creating political instability inside the country.
Three, to appear ready to launch a full-out war, which would be met with relief when Russia decides in the end to take the path of peace.
Option three – playing the peacemaker – also could be rewarded with concessions at the negotiating table. President Putin, in his remarks following the incidents in Crimea, said he considered it "pointless" to meet with Germany, France and Ukraine – the "Normandy Four" format – at the G20 summit in early September. This, too, could indicate a hardening of the Russian position, which, were the Russian leader to soften his stance and agree to meet later on, would be welcomed as a compromise.
And what do the Ukrainians think – do they really believe full-scale war is possible?
"The Ukrainians aren't taking any chances," one Western diplomat in Kyiv told DW.


Clic here to read the story from its source.