"Narrative Summit" Releases 2025 Recommendations to Cement Egypt's Position as a Global Tourism Destination    Egypt, S.Arabia step up trade ties through coordination council talks    Egypt reviews progress on $200m World Bank-funded waste management hub    Egypt urges Israel to accept Gaza deal amid intensifying fighting    Egypt, ADIB explore strategic partnership in digital healthcare, investment    SCZONE, Tokyo Metropolitan Government sign MoU on green hydrogen cooperation    Egypt welcomes international efforts for peace in Ukraine    Al-Sisi, Macron reaffirm strategic partnership, coordinate on Gaza crisis    Contact Reports Strong 1H-2025 on Financing, Insurance Gains    Egypt, India's BDR Group in talks to establish biologics, cancer drug facility    AUC graduates first cohort of film industry business certificate    Egyptian pound down vs. US dollar at Monday's close – CBE    Egypt's FM, Palestinian PM visit Rafah crossing to review Gaza aid    Egypt prepares unified stance ahead of COP30 in Brazil    Egypt recovers collection of ancient artefacts from Netherlands    Egypt harvests 315,000 cubic metres of rainwater in Sinai as part of flash flood protection measures    Egypt, Namibia explore closer pharmaceutical cooperation    Fitch Ratings: ASEAN Islamic finance set to surpass $1t by 2026-end    Renowned Egyptian novelist Sonallah Ibrahim dies at 88    Egyptian, Ugandan Presidents open business forum to boost trade    Al-Sisi says any party thinking Egypt will neglect water rights is 'completely mistaken'    Egypt's Sisi warns against unilateral Nile measures, reaffirms Egypt's water security stance    Egypt's Sisi, Uganda's Museveni discuss boosting ties    Egypt, Huawei explore healthcare digital transformation cooperation    Egypt's Sisi, Sudan's Idris discuss strategic ties, stability    Egypt to inaugurate Grand Egyptian Museum on 1 November    Greco-Roman rock-cut tombs unearthed in Egypt's Aswan    Egypt reveals heritage e-training portal    Sisi launches new support initiative for families of war, terrorism victims    Egypt expands e-ticketing to 110 heritage sites, adds self-service kiosks at Saqqara    Palm Hills Squash Open debuts with 48 international stars, $250,000 prize pool    On Sport to broadcast Pan Arab Golf Championship for Juniors and Ladies in Egypt    Golf Festival in Cairo to mark Arab Golf Federation's 50th anniversary    Germany among EU's priciest labour markets – official data    Paris Olympic gold '24 medals hit record value    A minute of silence for Egyptian sports    Russia says it's in sync with US, China, Pakistan on Taliban    It's a bit frustrating to draw at home: Real Madrid keeper after Villarreal game    Shoukry reviews with Guterres Egypt's efforts to achieve SDGs, promote human rights    Sudan says countries must cooperate on vaccines    Johnson & Johnson: Second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19    Egypt to tax bloggers, YouTubers    Egypt's FM asserts importance of stability in Libya, holding elections as scheduled    We mustn't lose touch: Muller after Bayern win in Bundesliga    Egypt records 36 new deaths from Covid-19, highest since mid June    Egypt sells $3 bln US-dollar dominated eurobonds    Gamal Hanafy's ceramic exhibition at Gezira Arts Centre is a must go    Italian Institute Director Davide Scalmani presents activities of the Cairo Institute for ITALIANA.IT platform    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



Egypt's external debt to climb to 21.8% of GDP in 2020: FocusEconomics
US dollar exchange rate expected to increase to EGP 10.19 by the end of 2017 and EGP 13.10 by the end of 2020, says FocusEconomics
Published in Daily News Egypt on 03 - 08 - 2016

Egypt's external debt is expected to climb to 21.8% of GDP in fiscal year (FY) 2019/2020, registering $82.2bn, according to a FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast report.
The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast report for the Middle East and North Africa for August 2016 indicates that external debt will rise to 17.5% of GDP ($54.9bn) in FY 2015/2016, compared to when it was 14.5% ($48.1bn) in FY 2014/2015. The report says this will reach 19% of GDP ($62.1bn) in FY 2016/2017.
For international reserves, FocusEconomics forecasts that this would increase to $19.1bn in FY 2016/2017, compared to $17.6bn in FY 2015/2016. It would increase to $27.5bn in FY 2019/2020.
The report predicted that public debt would reach 91% of GDP in FY 2015/2016 and is expected to decrease to 90.6% of GDP in FY 2016/2017 and continue its decline to 77.3% of GDP in FY 2019/2020.
However, imports are forecasted to decrease to $55.3bn in 2016 compared to $75.4bn in 2015 with a small increase in 2017 to $56.6bn. The imports are expected to reach $60bn in 2020.
Exports are also expected to decrease in 2016 to $19.7bn, compared to $26.5 in 2015, but the report forecasts that exports should increase to $24.6bn in 2020.
Thus, industrial production is expected to sharply decrease in 2016 to reach an annual variation of 2.7% compared to 5.5% in 2015. The annual variation of industrial production is predicted to continue its decrease through 2017 down to 2.6%, though it is forecasted to increase to 4.4% in 2020.
As for the exchange rate between the Egyptian pound and US dollar, the FocusEconomics panellists forecast that it will reach EGP 9.65 by the end of 2016. The official exchange rate in the Central Bank of Egypt is EGP 8.78 as of 16 March, and it was EGP 7.83 in 2015. The panellists expect that the exchange rate will rise to EGP 10.19 by end of 2017 and EGP 13.10 by the end of 2020.
"Egypt's economic outlook is clouded by the acute US dollar crunch, weak fiscal accounts and political instability. Our panellists expect GDP to have expanded 3.1% in FY 2015/2016 and forecast growth of 3.7% in FY 2016/2017," the report read. "Inflation soared from 12.3% in May to 14.0% in June—the highest reading since early 2009 and panellists expect inflation to average 11.7% in 2016 and 11.4% in 2017."
Meanwhile, the average annual inflation rose from 10.0% in May to 10.2% in June.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect total investment to increase 5.6% in FY 2015/2016, which is down 0.5% from July's forecast. It expects total investment to expand 6.2% in FY 2016/ 2017.
The Egyptian government targets a growth of 4.4% in FY 2015/2016 and of 5.2% in FY 2016/ 2017.
Further, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect the overnight deposit rate to average 11.99% in 2016 and 11.50% in 2017.
The current overnight deposit rate rests at a multi-year high of 11.75%, the overnight lending rate at 12.75% and the main operation rate at 12.25%.


Clic here to read the story from its source.