Real Madrid's struggles continue with 2-1 loss to Alaves    Egypt, South Sudan exchange viewpoints on support to implementation of peace agreement    New Egyptian league season to end in August; fan attendance not allowed    France's AFD, NBE sign €100 million credit facility agreement    Savills: Boom in global vaccine investment to benefit real estate investors in Middle East    Egypt's exported 4.8 mln tonnes of agriculture products in 11M: Minister    US aircraft carrier deploys to Gulf, Navy says unrelated to 'specific threats'    Ethiopian forces will take Tigrayan capital in coming days, military says    Experts: Virus numbers could be erratic after Thanksgiving    Match winner Afsha continues scoring habit to give Ahly Champions League title    Italy loosens COVID restrictions in five regions, including Lombardy    Egypt's Sisi inspects road projects under construction in Cairo    Light to heavy rainfall forecast in Egypt next week    Ethiopia to generate power from GERD in June 2021, says Ethiopian Minister    Cairo, Alexandria, Gharbiya and Luxor record highest coronavirus infection rates, minister    2021 Grammy Awards: List of nominees in top categories    Egypt's interior ministry takes legal action against 5,226 drivers, 483 shops for violating COVID-19 preventive measures    Sisi calls on citizens to closely observe COVID-19 preventive measures    UAE's ADGM to sign MOU with Israel's securities authority on fintech    Akhenaten performance at the Cairo Opera House is a must go    An advisory chamber    GERD: A point of order?    Leapfrogging the transport network    Cairo International Book Fair suspended for five months over coronavirus concerns    AstraZeneca novel COVID-19 vaccine can be 90% effective, results show    US will reduce number of its troop in Iraq, Afghanistan    Asia forms world's biggest trade bloc, a China-backed group excluding U.S    Egypt unveils largest archaeological discovery in 2020 with over 100 intact sarcophagi    Palestinians mourn the loss their longtime spokesman, Saeb Erekat    Trump says won't blame Egypt for being ‘upset' over GERD dispute with Ethiopia    1st stage of Egypt's parliamentary elections kicks off on Saturday    Global Finance: Egypt's Tarek Amer among the world's top 20 central bank governors    Legend footballer Lionel Messi says he is forced to stay with Barcelona    Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan to resume Nile dam talks today    Iraqi conglomerate eyes developing land that housed Mubarak-era ruling party HQ    Legend Messi officially wants to leave Barcelona, hands transfer request    The Facebook Preacher's Search for Fame, and Egypt's Economy    Egypt calls on UNSC to address oil spill risks off Yemen coast    Egypt economically strong in face of COVID-19, reforms ongoing: International Cooperation Minister    Arafa Holding reports $144,000 COVID-19-related losses in April    Egypt's efforts in Libya to activate free will of Libyan people: Al-Sisi    Hyksos campaigns were internal takeover, not foreign invaders: study    COVID-19 affects Egypt sporting clubs    COVID-19 will soon turn to seasonal like swine flu: Presidential Health Advisor    ‘Egypt's Support' coalition convenes to discuss its Senate election list    Robbery attempt leads to discovery of Ptolemaic monuments in Qena    Flouting international guidance, Ethiopia unilaterally starts filling its Nile dam    Zaha speaks out after online racial abuse    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.





Egypt's external debt to climb to 21.8% of GDP in 2020: FocusEconomics
US dollar exchange rate expected to increase to EGP 10.19 by the end of 2017 and EGP 13.10 by the end of 2020, says FocusEconomics
Published in Daily News Egypt on 03 - 08 - 2016

Egypt's external debt is expected to climb to 21.8% of GDP in fiscal year (FY) 2019/2020, registering $82.2bn, according to a FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast report.
The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast report for the Middle East and North Africa for August 2016 indicates that external debt will rise to 17.5% of GDP ($54.9bn) in FY 2015/2016, compared to when it was 14.5% ($48.1bn) in FY 2014/2015. The report says this will reach 19% of GDP ($62.1bn) in FY 2016/2017.
For international reserves, FocusEconomics forecasts that this would increase to $19.1bn in FY 2016/2017, compared to $17.6bn in FY 2015/2016. It would increase to $27.5bn in FY 2019/2020.
The report predicted that public debt would reach 91% of GDP in FY 2015/2016 and is expected to decrease to 90.6% of GDP in FY 2016/2017 and continue its decline to 77.3% of GDP in FY 2019/2020.
However, imports are forecasted to decrease to $55.3bn in 2016 compared to $75.4bn in 2015 with a small increase in 2017 to $56.6bn. The imports are expected to reach $60bn in 2020.
Exports are also expected to decrease in 2016 to $19.7bn, compared to $26.5 in 2015, but the report forecasts that exports should increase to $24.6bn in 2020.
Thus, industrial production is expected to sharply decrease in 2016 to reach an annual variation of 2.7% compared to 5.5% in 2015. The annual variation of industrial production is predicted to continue its decrease through 2017 down to 2.6%, though it is forecasted to increase to 4.4% in 2020.
As for the exchange rate between the Egyptian pound and US dollar, the FocusEconomics panellists forecast that it will reach EGP 9.65 by the end of 2016. The official exchange rate in the Central Bank of Egypt is EGP 8.78 as of 16 March, and it was EGP 7.83 in 2015. The panellists expect that the exchange rate will rise to EGP 10.19 by end of 2017 and EGP 13.10 by the end of 2020.
"Egypt's economic outlook is clouded by the acute US dollar crunch, weak fiscal accounts and political instability. Our panellists expect GDP to have expanded 3.1% in FY 2015/2016 and forecast growth of 3.7% in FY 2016/2017," the report read. "Inflation soared from 12.3% in May to 14.0% in June—the highest reading since early 2009 and panellists expect inflation to average 11.7% in 2016 and 11.4% in 2017."
Meanwhile, the average annual inflation rose from 10.0% in May to 10.2% in June.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect total investment to increase 5.6% in FY 2015/2016, which is down 0.5% from July's forecast. It expects total investment to expand 6.2% in FY 2016/ 2017.
The Egyptian government targets a growth of 4.4% in FY 2015/2016 and of 5.2% in FY 2016/ 2017.
Further, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect the overnight deposit rate to average 11.99% in 2016 and 11.50% in 2017.
The current overnight deposit rate rests at a multi-year high of 11.75%, the overnight lending rate at 12.75% and the main operation rate at 12.25%.


Clic here to read the story from its source.