Egypt After 2025: Navigating a Critical Inflection Point    Spot Gold, futures slips on Thursday, July 17th    Egypt's EHA, Huawei discuss enhanced digital health    Egypt expresses condolences to Iraq over fire tragedy    Egypt, Oman discuss environmental cooperation    Egypt's Environment Minister attends AMCEN conference in Nairobi    At London 'Egypt Day', Finance Minister outlines pro-investment policies    Sukari Gold Mine showcases successful public–private partnership: Minister of Petroleum    Egypt's FRA chief vows to reform business environment to boost investor confidence    Egyptian, Belarusian officials discuss drug registration, market access    Syria says it will defend its territory after Israeli strikes in Suwayda    Pakistan names Qatari royal as brand ambassador after 'Killer Mountain' climb    Health Ministry denies claims of meningitis-related deaths among siblings    Sri Lanka's expat remittances up in June '25    EU–US trade talks enter 'decisive phase', German politician says    Egypt's Health Min. discusses drug localisation with Sandoz    Needle-spiking attacks in France prompt government warning, public fear    Foreign, housing ministers discuss Egypt's role in African development push    Korea Culture Week in Egypt to blend K-Pop with traditional arts    Egypt, France FMs review Gaza ceasefire efforts, reconstruction    CIB finances Giza Pyramids Sound and Light Show redevelopment with EGP 963m loan    Greco-Roman tombs with hieroglyphic inscriptions discovered in Aswan    Egypt reveals heritage e-training portal    Three ancient rock-cut tombs discovered in Aswan    Sisi launches new support initiative for families of war, terrorism victims    Egypt expands e-ticketing to 110 heritage sites, adds self-service kiosks at Saqqara    Egypt's Irrigation Minister urges scientific cooperation to tackle water scarcity    Palm Hills Squash Open debuts with 48 international stars, $250,000 prize pool    Egypt's Democratic Generation Party Evaluates 84 Candidates Ahead of Parliamentary Vote    On Sport to broadcast Pan Arab Golf Championship for Juniors and Ladies in Egypt    Golf Festival in Cairo to mark Arab Golf Federation's 50th anniversary    Germany among EU's priciest labour markets – official data    Cabinet approves establishment of national medical tourism council to boost healthcare sector    Egypt's PM follows up on Julius Nyerere dam project in Tanzania    Paris Olympic gold '24 medals hit record value    A minute of silence for Egyptian sports    Russia says it's in sync with US, China, Pakistan on Taliban    It's a bit frustrating to draw at home: Real Madrid keeper after Villarreal game    Shoukry reviews with Guterres Egypt's efforts to achieve SDGs, promote human rights    Sudan says countries must cooperate on vaccines    Johnson & Johnson: Second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19    Egypt to tax bloggers, YouTubers    Egypt's FM asserts importance of stability in Libya, holding elections as scheduled    We mustn't lose touch: Muller after Bayern win in Bundesliga    Egypt records 36 new deaths from Covid-19, highest since mid June    Egypt sells $3 bln US-dollar dominated eurobonds    Gamal Hanafy's ceramic exhibition at Gezira Arts Centre is a must go    Italian Institute Director Davide Scalmani presents activities of the Cairo Institute for ITALIANA.IT platform    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



Answering Iran
Published in Daily News Egypt on 03 - 02 - 2012

NEW YORK: We know quite a bit about Iran's nuclear program, and what we know is not encouraging. Iran is reported to be enriching uranium at two sites — some of it to levels of 20%, far beyond what is required for civilian purposes. The International Atomic Energy Agency also reports that Iran is carrying out research to develop designs for nuclear warheads. In short, Iranian officials' claims that their nuclear program is aimed solely at power generation or medical research lacks all plausibility.
Yet there is still much that the world does not know. For example, we do not know whether Iran is conducting secret activities at undisclosed sites, or when Iran could develop a crude nuclear weapon, with estimates ranging from several months to several years. We also do not know whether Iran's divided leadership has decided to develop nuclear weapons, or to stop just short, calculating that the country could derive many of the benefits of possessing nuclear weapons without running the risks or incurring the costs of actually doing so.
Either way, Iran's activities confront the world with difficult choices. None is costless or risk-free. Moreover, neither the costs nor the risks are possible to calculate with precision.
One option would be to accept and live with a nuclear or near-nuclear Iran. This assumes that Iran could be deterred from using its weapons, much as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War. Missile defenses could be expanded; the United States could extend security guarantees so that Iran would understand that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would be met with a decisive American response.
But there are significant drawbacks to acquiescing to a nuclear-armed Iran. Given its use of subversion and terrorism against its adversaries, a nuclear-armed Iran might be even more assertive. It might also transfer nuclear-related material, technology, or weapons to allies (Hugo Chávez's Venezuela, for example) or radical organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas. And, rather than promoting caution and stability in the region, Iran or Israel could be tempted to strike first in a crisis.
Nor can it be assumed that Iran's divided and radical leadership would always act rationally, or that proliferation would stop with the Islamic Republic. If Iran develops its nuclear weapons, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt would be tempted to purchase or develop nuclear weapons of their own. A Middle East with multiple fingers on multiple triggers is as good a definition of a nightmare as there is.
At the opposite end of the spectrum of policy choices is a preventive attack: a military strike (most likely by Israel, the US, or both) against sites in Iran associated with its nuclear program. The core objective would be to interrupt the emergence of a threat that is still gathering.
Here, again, there are considerable drawbacks. Even a successful preventive attack would at most set back Iran's nuclear program a few years. It would almost certainly be rebuilt, presumably in underground, fortified sites that would make future attacks far more difficult to carry out.
Moreover, Iran could well retaliate immediately against targets that could include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan, and other US interests worldwide — as well as sites on American territory. Hezbollah could attack Israel. If all of this happened, the price of oil would skyrocket owing to shortages and fears, possibly driving much of the world economy, already in a precarious position, into recession. An armed attack could also cause the Iranian public to rally around the government, reducing the chances that a more responsible leadership might emerge.
It thus comes as little surprise that the US and much of the world have explored alternatives, including regime change in Iran. But, however desirable that might be, no policy can assuredly bring it about. As a result, the principal policy toward Iran centers on the imposition of increasingly painful economic sanctions. The rationale underlying this policy is that Iran's leaders, fearful of losing political control as popular discontent increases over the sanctions' effects, will recalculate the costs and benefits of their nuclear activities and become receptive to negotiated constraints in exchange for removal of sanctions.
That could happen. International support for sanctions is considerable and increasing. It is becoming more difficult for Iran (whose economy depends to a large extent on oil exports of more than two million barrels a day) to find customers — and especially customers willing to pay full price. Meanwhile, Iran's currency is weakening, pricing imported goods out of many Iranians' reach.
Additional elements of current policy that seem to be having an effect are clandestine efforts aimed at impeding Iran's ability to import sensitive technologies. Viruses have infiltrated computers in Iran, reducing the efficiency of the centrifuges central to enriching uranium. It is also possible that the assassination of selected individuals has slowed the advance of Iranian nuclear efforts.
But slowing Iran's efforts is not the same as stopping them. So one question is whether existing sanctions can be extended and tightened; here, China and Russia must determine their priorities. Another question is whether any sanctions will be enough to persuade Iran's leaders to accept verifiable limits on their nuclear program. And a third unsettled issue is how long Israel or the US will tolerate Iranian efforts before striking militarily.
Indeed, the only certainty may be that Iran's nuclear program will be a major international issue in 2012 — quite possibly the most important one.
Richard N. Haass, formerly Director of Policy Planning in the US State Department, is President of The Council on Foreign Relations. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with Project Syndicate (www.project-syndicate.org).


Clic here to read the story from its source.