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What chances does the Muslim Brotherhood stand in the upcoming elections?
Published in Daily News Egypt on 11 - 11 - 2010

CAIRO: Unlike some opposition groups in Egypt who are urging a boycott of the upcoming parliamentary elections, the Muslim Brotherhood believe that participating will send a stronger message.
Last month, Brotherhood leader Mohammed Badie said the group decided to take part in the elections to encourage civic duty on the one hand and to expose vote rigging on the other.
“When we decided to participate in the elections, we wanted to emphasize the idea of being proactive in society and to stress the necessity for people to exercise their constitutional and legal rights,” Badie had told reporters in a press conference in October while announcing their participation in the upcoming legislative elections.
The group is vying for up to 30 percent of the seats in parliament. While some analysts say this number may be out of reach, the group's participation is important nonetheless.
“Whatever minority representation they secure in parliament is significant, these people [candidates] link the Brotherhood with the regime,” said Amar Ali Hassan, political researcher and analyst.
However, despite the Brotherhood's determination to take part in the elections this year, Hassan believes that the Brotherhood will not win more than a quarter of their current 88-seat tally.
“The NDP will get the highest and most influential positions to pass legislatives that work for their benefit and enable them to prepare an infrastructure for the presidential elections that will take place in 2011,” said Amar.
The Muslim Brotherhood is Egypt's largest opposition group and the National Democratic Party's main contender. In 2005 parliamentary elections, the group grabbed 88 seats in the lower house of the parliament and emerged as the largest opposition bloc in the People's Assembly. Brotherhood members run as independent candidates to circumvent a ban on religious parties.
“At that time in 2005, there was pressure exerted by the US administration to give space for other parties in Egypt,” explained Hassan.
“The regime successfully proved to the US administration that if it's not the National Democratic Party then it would be the Brotherhood, which is not favored by the US,” he continued.
Crackdowns
Over the past two months, there has been a nationwide crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, with arrests, detentions and attacks on the group's members as well as supporters.
The group also claimed that affiliated candidates were prevented from submitting their registration papers for the parliamentary elections.
Abdel Moneim Abdel Maqsoud, the group's lawyer, was quoted on Ikhwan web saying that “such actions are a complete violation of the law and constitution.”
Analysts argue that since late 2006, the government has launched massive waves of arrests targeting the group's leadership as well as rank and file activists.
The Brotherhood denounced the state's crackdown on its members before the upcoming parliamentary elections.
“The security can [control] the Brotherhood's dynamics before the elections by detaining some members in leading positions in the group's hierarchy; this makes for an election that does not comply with universally identified standards of free and fair elections," a prominent Muslim Brotherhood member who preferred to remain anonymous said.
According to Hassan, these detentions are standard procedures taken by the regime against the Muslim Brotherhood.
“The main aim here is to handicap the Brotherhood by detaining [pivotal members] and claiming that they are violating the law,” said Hassan.
However, he believes that “the Muslim Brotherhood should make use of the current situation, people will vote for them because they hate the Egyptian regime,” Hassan said.
Determined to Participate
The Brotherhood member explained that the group debated the idea of boycotting or participating in the elections, however they concluded that participation is important.
He added that if the Muslim Brotherhood boycotts the elections the political arena will be left for the NDP to win. “The world will think that there has been democratic elections running in Egypt and that there was no fraud, which is not the case,” he said.
Head of the Muslim Brotherhood Parliamentary Bloc Mohamed Saad El-Katatni denounced the crackdown on the group's members, telling Daily News Egypt that these actions are part of arbitrary procedures taken against the group, giving leverage to other candidates over the Brotherhood's.
“The government uses the emergency law for their political agenda and not against terrorism,” he said.
El-Katatni added that despite these detentions, the Brotherhood is still eyeing 30 percent of the seats in parliament.
The upcoming parliament elections come amid uncertain political circumstances in Egypt, with the presidential elections due next year.
President Hosni Mubarak underwent gall bladder surgery earlier this year raising concerns around his health as well as his intention to run for another six-year term.
“We are persistent and we have our alternative procedures to win the elections, we won't grow weaker,” said El-Katatni.


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