CAIRO: A geological study warned that in the coming few years Cairo might be subject to three destructive earthquakes that could measure a staggering 7 degrees on the Richter scale. The study conducted by Egyptian geologist Taha Mohamed Abul Azayem, predicts that the point of initial rupture of the strongest of the three earthquakes will be south west Cairo, precisely around Dahshour. That same area was the epicenter of the most destructive earthquake to hit Egypt in 1992. Imbaba, Giza, Ramses, Tahrir, Shubra and Garden City are expected to be the worst hit by the earthquakes because of the spongy nature of their soil considering their proximity to the Nile. He also predicts that areas like Maadi, Helwan, Ghamra, Giza and Haram will be less affected, while residents of Nasr City and Heliopolis have nothing at all to worry about. Measured by logarithmic rate, the destructive force of the earthquake is expected to be 20 times more powerful than average. For example if the earthquake measures four degrees on the Richter scale, then its destructive force is equal to 30 earthquakes of three degrees. An average of five power rebound shakes are expected to measure between five and six degrees while an additional 120 tremors will measure below average at a maximum of four degrees. Abul Azayem said that his study was based on geophysical analysis, that is, the fracture propagation that occurs due to excessive pressure that produces enormous energy that moves rocks. The last time Egypt was hit by an earthquake was on 1992. Measuring 5.9 degree on the Richter scale, it lasted 30 seconds leaving 500 people dead and another 6,500 injured. Salah Mohamed Mahmoud, head of the National Institute of Astronomy and Geophysical Science, however, refuted Abul Azayem's claims. "We do not predict any earthquakes, he told Daily News Egypt. "This is something only god knows. He emphasized that the institute was the only one in Egypt that can predict earthquakes because it is the only one fitted with the necessary equipment. "What may occur are small tremors that people don't even feel, he added. The United States Geological Survey (USGC) estimates that, since 1900, there have been an average of 18 major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0-7.9) and one great earthquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater) per year, and that this average has been relatively stable.
