Europe and the Rafah border crisis

When Israel and the Palestinian Authority - with the midwifery of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - forged the Agreement of Movement and Access (AMA) in November 2005 enabling the operation of the Rafah border crossing, the central partner of the agreement was kept almost secret. All through the paragraphs of the agreement a mysterious third party is mentioned. Only literally at the bottom line the true identity was revealed, almost laconically: the European Union.
In the current crisis at the Rafah border crossing, the Europeans are very openly a central player in not only trying to renew and reinstall the AMA but to forge a global agreement among all the stakeholders that will resolve the problems at all the Gaza borders and stop both Qassam rockets and Israeli incursions and targeted killings.
In 2005 there were only two main parties to the agreement: Israel and the PA. Egypt and the EU agreed to the AMA but did not sign it. Since the breach of the Rafah border on January 23 it is clear that five stakeholders will have to be part of any future solution at Rafah that the US brokers if agreement can be reached : Israel, the Abbas-led PA government in Ramallah, Egypt, the EU and Hamas.
The most obvious problem is that not one of the three actors - the EU, Israel or the Ramallah PA - holds any direct dialogue with Hamas, and it doesn t seem likely that any of the three will change their position in the near future.
Nevertheless, for the last weeks Europe has been engaged in energetic diplomatic activity on the future of the Rafah border. From a European point of view it is important to reopen the Rafah crossing and all other border crossings in and out of Gaza since the closure leads to instability and a non-sustainable situation in Gaza.
Egypt, Israel and the Ramallah PA, meanwhile, are interested in opening the Rafah border crossing as soon as possible while returning to the AMA and reinstalling EUBAM as monitors with closed circuit video real-time transmission to the Israelis.
For Egypt, the breach of the border has sharpened the focus on weapons smuggling into Gaza and the contacts and exchange of information and know-how between Hamas in Gaza and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
Finally, Hamas is also interested in an orderly opening of the Rafah border and has offered the Ramallah PA that its presidential guard could be allowed to control the crossing while Hamas forces control the area in a ring some hundred meters away. A similar system used to be in place around the Erez crossing between Gaza and Israel. But Hamas refuses to accept the AMA, since de facto Israeli control over the presence of the EUBAM observers gives Israel a right of veto over crossings at the border.
The EU is now actively trying to place pressure on all the involved parties to reach a broad solution for the situation in and around Gaza. The solution should include:
1. the Rafah border opens with PA security forces on the Palestinian side according to the AMA;
2. a similar arrangement that includes the EUBAM monitors at the Karni cargo border crossing;
3. a Hamas-Israel ceasefire, including full end to rocket attacks on Israel from Gaza and to Israeli attacks on Gaza;
4. the release of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit;
5. the opening of all border crossings between Gaza and Israel.
To reach this goal, the EU is working through Javier Solana to convince Arab states, mainly Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to pressure Hamas into accepting the plan presented by Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad - a plan largely similar to the above. At the same time, the US is working closely with the EU to pressure Israel into accepting its part of the deal.
If such a deal can be brokered it would mean that the Ramallah PA would regain a foothold in Gaza. The pressure on the population of Gaza would ease. The Israeli population in Sderot and surrounding areas could return to normal. The atmosphere for final stage negotiations between the PA and Israel would be improved. And, as a spin-off, an opening might be created for renewed dialogue between Hamas and the PA on the political situation in Gaza.
If the agreement cannot be brokered it is the European understanding that it would be obvious to all - including to the people of Gaza - that Hamas is obstructing the deal. The weak link in this enterprise that even European diplomats find it difficult to explain is what Hamas would gain from accepting such a deal. Published 14/2/2008 ©
Hanne Foighel reports from the Middle East for Danish Radio and the Copenhagen daily Politiken. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with bitterlemons-international.org.