Determination and sensitivity was the prevailing slogan in Israel during implementation of the disengagement plan in August 2005. It expressed the attitude demanded of Israel s security forces toward removal of the settlers from the Gaza Strip. In fact, it is a fair description of the dilemmas surrounding Gaza today, two years later. The Gaza Strip as a geographic-economic unit depends entirely on its neighbors, primarily Israel and to a lesser extent Egypt. It lacks even minimal capacity to sustain itself. Basic infrastructure is provided by Israel: electricity relies on the Israeli grid or Israeli-supplied fuel, Israeli-supplied water is required in addition to local supply, and petrol and gas are imported in their entirety from Israel. Israeli ports are the supply source for imported goods, particularly basic goods. Fresh food is supplied in part by local agriculture that itself relies mainly on Israeli input; milk products and other agricultural goods are imported directly from Israel. Gaza, then, has virtually no indigenous economic capacity. This is the outcome of the many years of Israeli presence in Gaza, though it was also the reality there during the Egyptian presence prior to the Six-Day War of 1967. Gaza is easily placed under siege and boycott. Its only land links are to Israel and Egypt, and it has no naval or air transport capacity. Its 1.4 million inhabitants cannot live for even a few days without supplies from Israel or Egypt. Its per capita production is estimated at $700 per annum. Since mid-June 2007, when Hamas seized power in the Gaza Strip, Israel, Egypt, the Palestinian Authority and the international community have maintained a policy of brinkmanship vis-a-vis the Hamas regime there. A full-fledged economic siege is not being applied for fear of starving the population and creating a huge humanitarian crisis that violates the sensitivities of world opinion. The dilemma is whether to exercise the full extent of economic power in order to bring down the Hamas regime by starving the population ( determination ) or to maintain supplies of food, medicines, fuel, electricity and the like at a minimal level short of causing a humanitarian disaster while still signaling the local population that it is paying a heavy price for Hamas rule in terms of daily necessities ( sensitivity ). For some two months now, the policy has ranged between determination and sensitivity, with fluctuations in both directions. Israel permits minimal supply of goods and completely prevents agricultural exports, an important source of employment and income. Interruptions in fuel supply during August that generated an electricity shortage lasted only briefly because the European Union, which pays the bill, capitulated to international pressure, thereby illustrating the limits of determination . In the West Bank, the PA faces a huge dilemma in explaining to the Palestinian public its support for an economic siege that inflicts suffering on fellow Palestinians in Gaza. For its part, the Hamas government is of course trying to play on the world s sensitivity by exaggerating the crisis, arguing that Gaza s poor population has fallen victim to hostile and cruel neighbors. In contrast, the anti-Hamas forces - Israel, the PA, the US and part of Europe - are looking for the sensitive balancing point that might keep the suffering at a level short of humanitarian crisis while bringing the population to appreciate the uselessness of supporting Hamas even as it splits Palestinian society and prolongs regional violence. This is a contest of nerves to see who blinks first. There can be no doubt that a policy of siege, even if measured, can over time hurt the local population to a point where in its frustration it will pressure the Hamas government. While the Palestinian population has over the years displayed considerable capacity to absorb such blows, particularly during the second intifada that began in 2000, the reality we have described here is worse than anything experienced in the past. Ongoing economic pressure over the coming months and into winter will exacerbate the Hamas government s dilemma and increase the pressure on the part of anti-Hamas elements. The economic breaking point could be softened if it emerges that the political contacts currently underway that are expected to climax in a planned international conference in November 2007, bear fruit and point to a different way. Indeed, this may be the only policy that can succeed. David Brodetis former director general of the Ministry of Finance. He headed the Israeli delegation that negotiated the Paris protocols in 1993-94. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with bitterlemons-international.org.
