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The Iranian nuclear crisis will not end anytime soon
A F Alhajji
Published in
Daily News Egypt
on 04 - 07 - 2007
Iran will continue to enrich uranium regardless of whether a Republican or a Democrat becomes president of the
United States
in 2009. At the same time,
Washington
will oppose any
Iranian
nuclear program - even a civilian program - because this will only contribute to the stability of the regime in
Tehran
. As a result, nuclear tensions are likely to bedevil American-
Iranian
relations for years to come.
Iran
, it is often claimed, has no need for nuclear power, given its abundant oil and natural gas reserves. But the
Iranian
government is under economic and political pressure to supply increasing amounts of electricity to its growing population and fragile economy. Using oil or natural gas for domestic electricity threatens oil and gas exports, which are the principle source of government revenues. Indeed, with domestic oil consumption growing at a higher rate than production, government revenues from oil exports are already in decline.
Thus, nuclear power will halt the decline in government revenues by freeing more oil and natural gas for export.
Iran
's natural gas resources, if developed, would not be a substitute for cheap nuclear power, because gas is more profitable in other uses than in power generation.
The
Iranian
government fears that electricity shortages, slow economic growth, and high unemployment will turn the populace against it. As social tensions increase, political turmoil will follow.
Nuclear power offers the possibility of cheap, plentiful electricity that will contribute to social and political stability.
Iranian
experts argue that, in considering the trade-off between internal unrest and external sanctions, the
Iranian
government must choose between domestic security and international security.
Domestic pressure could very well bring down the regime, but international pressure will not. History is on the side of the
Iranian
government. The Islamic Revolution has survived a brutal war with
Iraq
, economic sanctions, and decades of international pressure and isolation from the US. Moreover,
Iran
's leaders remember that the shah was forced to flee the country in 1979, despite having strong international support. While there may be security reasons for any future US administration to oppose even a civilian nuclear program, American policymakers also recognize the strategic impact that nuclear energy will have in stabilizing the
Iranian
regime. The US and
Iran
have been fighting proxy wars since 1979, and their ongoing conflict means that proxy wars will continue in
Lebanon
,
Iraq
,
Afghanistan
, and the Caspian Sea region, as will trade and investment wars. Indeed, as long as
China
and
Russia
have money to invest and arms to sell, most United Nations sanctions will be toothless.
Iran
will continue to threaten the world community with the oil weapon, but its actually using oil in this way is highly unlikely. It is not in
Iran
's interest, under any scenario, to decrease oil exports, let alone halt them. However, domestic pressure, a sense of nationalism, and the need to improve
Iran
's bargaining position with Western countries might force the
Iranian
government to respond to harsh UN sanctions or an air attack on its nuclear facilities. But even under these extreme circumstances,
Iran
will still need its oil revenue. A symbolic cut or embargo, while possible, would have little impact on world oil markets.
Iran
's government has more effective options to respond to attacks from the US and its allies. Its supporters in
Iraq
might cripple
Iraqi
oil exports from Basra. This would damage US plans in
Iraq
while boosting
Iran
's oil revenues. Or
Iran
might limit the availability of fuel to the US Army by attacking roads and bridges, especially the
Kuwait
City-
Baghdad
highway.
The international community will continue to pay a high price for the
Iranian
nuclear standoff, which will cast a shadow over world oil markets for years to come. Some experts argue that it has already raised oil prices by about $15 per barrel. Ironically, an
Iranian
civilian nuclear program would enhance US and world energy security by making more oil and gas available in the global marketplace. But
Washington
's determination to destabilize
Iran
and the
Iranian
government's determination to retain power reduce the likelihood of this scenario. A. F. Alhajjiis an energy economist and professor at Ohio Northern University. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate © (www.project-syndicate.org).
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