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Europe's irrelevance and the future of the G-8
Joschka Fischer
Published in
Daily News Egypt
on 28 - 06 - 2007
Two weeks after the Group of Eight leaders met in
Germany
an impression remains that they wrought a political miracle in Heiligendamm. Three things were supposedly saved at the G-8 summit: world climate, Africa, and relations between
Russia
and the
United States
. It seemed that a world government had met on the shores of the Baltic Sea. In the face of European unity, US President George W. Bush was transformed from a notorious sinner against the world's climate to a born-again climate protector. Some bold observers, indeed, regard this change of heart by Bush as a clear indication that Europe had assumed a new role in world politics. But no real miracles occurred; instead, the G-8 will need a miracle not to lose its relevance. In faraway America, however, where people are normally more religious than in old Europe, belief in the Heiligendamm miracle is less widespread. Indeed, Americans were rather indifferent to the summit. The reason for this is not only the public arrest of the tabloid newspapers' current favorite, the heiress
Paris
Hilton, but also the fact that the only expectations Americans now have of Bush is for him to finish his term. Because of Bush's perceived impotence, Americans believed that no real decisions could be taken at this summit. What, then, was decided at the summit? To begin with, the G-8 countries decided to "seriously examine cutting in half worldwide emissions by 2050! This is a very long time in politics. This compromise was supposedly hammered out in tough negotiations. But translated into everyday speech, "examine and even "seriously examine mean nothing other than "to postpone. For what happened is that America's president, both before the summit and quite publicly at it, successfully spurned quantifiable goals and refused to make any concrete commitments. So in the end all that was left was a choice between doing nothing and deciding to postpone a decision in a "serious way. This is how international conferences sometimes work. Thus, sadly, Europe's contribution to the conversion of America's president on climate change was very limited. After all, whatever awakening Bush has had has more to do with changes in the
United States
' political climate, where climate change is now a real issue. Indeed, the positions of Al Gore and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger have contributed more to Bush's awakening than all the efforts of the European leaders combined. In the cold light of day, the US government's agreement to negotiate a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol within a United Nations framework is not a sign of real progress either. This is so because members of both parties in the US Congress still repeat the mantra: Nothing without
China!
This position will not change after the next presidential election. The problem becomes clear when you compare per capita emissions in the US and
China
rather than absolute numbers.
China
may be the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases in absolute terms (behind the US), but its per capita emissions are those of an emerging economy that is still far behind. The fact that the US, the world's largest economy and emitter of greenhouse gases--in absolute numbers and in per capita terms--is taking cover behind the largest emerging country with regard to climate policy does not bode well for the future. Climate change is not the only place where the G-8 summit now seems less than miraculous. In the run-up to the summit,
Germany
announced that it would increase its foreign aid for Africa by around $938 million. This was the only concrete step, one deserving of praise. But otherwise the G-8 only reaffirmed the decision they had taken two years ago in Gleneagles, Scotland. So in real terms Africa has received only more grandiose rhetoric. Unfortunately, there is nothing to indicate that restating empty promises will lead to any change. The German presidency of this year's G-8 cannot be held responsible for this state of affairs. Under the prevailing circumstances, it is hard to see how more could have been achieved, given the political conditions back home of the summit's participants. So the summit's outcome was far from a miracle. What really mattered in Heiligendamm were not the decisions taken by any putative world government, but the fact that the days of the G-8 now seem to be numbered. Politically and economically,
China
and
India
are more important today than some European G-8 members. Indeed, Europeans should understand that this viewpoint is spreading around the world, particularly on the other side of the Atlantic.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin's behavior at the summit demonstrated what he thinks about the Europeans; not too much. While the Europeans dreamed of assuming a mediator's role between the US and
Russia
, the
Russian
president was determined to resolve the questions of the US anti-ballistic missile shield and Kosovo bilaterally with the US. As in the old Cold War days,
Russia
would love to sit once again at the negotiating table alone with
Washington
. The Europeans, with their disunity and weakness, are perceived as unnecessary, even bothersome. If the Europeans continue to cultivate their weakness and disunity, it may well happen that Europe will become irrelevant to the international agenda. This year's G-8 is over. Next December things will start getting serious. Environment ministers from around the world will meet at the next UN climate conference in Bali. Only then we will know with certainty if a miracle did occur at Heiligendamm, or if the summit was, indeed, yet another "political miracle play. Joschka Fischerwas
Germany
's foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005. A leader in the Green Party for nearly 20 years, he is now a visiting professor at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate-Institute of Human Sciences © (www.project-syndicate.org).
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