CAIRO: With the Egyptian initiated October 26th reconciliation pact between Palestinian faction’s Fatah and Hamas unsigned, hopes for a future Palestinian state are in serious doubt. From the deadlocked recent talks in Cairo, some commentators are left wondering in whose interest is reconciliation between the two Palestinian parties? Azmi Ashour an analyst at Cairo's Al-Ahram Center for Strategic Studies told Bikya Masr it is in Israel’s interest for a split between Gaza and the West Bank, as this would weaken support for a free Palestinian state and further solidify settlements in the West Bank. Israel could put off talks about settlements if the Palestinians didn’t have a leader that could talk for them all. “Abbas cannot speak for all of the Palestinians,†Ashour said, referring to Fatah leader and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas. While the US and Israel won’t accept Hamas as a negotiating partner, Abbas’s authority is undermined because he does not represent all of the Palestinian people. While there is no agreement signed between Hamas and Fatah, any agreements made by Abbas concerning Gaza will only be theoretical while he does not exercise authority there. Hamas have always maintained Abbas’s legitimacy as president expired when his term ran out in January 2009. Abbas extended his term for another year. Without a signed reconciliation pact, elections planed for January 2010 will be postponed; Hamas will not allow elections to take place in Gaza. Popularity for Hamas plummeted after Israel’s Gaza offensive in 2009. A recent survey put out in June this year by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center reported popularity for Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza was at 18.8 percent. A previous poll in January put support for Hamas at 27.7 percent. The center concluded if elections were to take place, Fatah would win. Challenges have been made against Hamas not only from Fatah and Israel, but also from Islamic groups within the Gaza Strip. Hamas security forces crushed the Dughmush clan, responsible for the abduction of BBC journalist Alan Johnston in 2007 and attacking Israeli soldiers on horseback, in August this year. Hamas’s delay in signing the unity agreement hints at its reluctance to give away power. Egypt's patients have been tried by Hamas’s reluctance to sign the deal, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossam Zaki told al-Arabiya “Egypt is not prepared to wait forever†back in late October. Some have argued it is Israel’s intention to induce Egypt to take responsibility for the Gaza Strip, a move that would invariably leave a massive scar on a potential Palestinian state. “Egypt cannot take over the Gaza strip, it would be a disaster, but Israeli’s government is pushing in this direction,†Ashour said. Israel brought hard line Lukid Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this year, a move that have strained relations with Egypt. Tunnels between Egypt and Gaza have been used to smuggle foods and medicines and some charge, weapons that are used against Israel. Egypt's response to the tunnels have been mixed. Middle East expert Dennis Ross, a Clinton era Middle East envoy has said Egypt in the past has given tacit approval to weapons smuggling provoking scorn from Israel and America, however since Israel’s Gaza offensive Egypt has taken a harder stance. While Egypt says it cannot allow the Muslim Brotherhood inspired Hamas radicalizing its population, it also cannot be seen in the Middle East as suppressing the Palestinian people and overtly supporting Israel. If Egypt assumed responsibility for Gaza, then Israel would be free of the burden of attempting to reign in Hamas as Egypt would then be responsible for cracking down on Islamist’s and developing resources and governance for Gaza’s impoverished population. Abbas’s recent statements of standing down at the next elections have widely been interpreted as a bluff. Under Palestinian electoral procedures, if Abbas stood down before elections, the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council Hamas member Aziz Dweik would take the job. This clearly is not Abbas’s intention and if elections do not go ahead in January, he will remain President indefinitely. Matters of the recent Goldstone report, criticizing Israel of war crimes during its December/January 2009 Gaza offensive have complicated the issue because Abbas who originally called for the report to be stalled, was forced to backtrack after considerable opposition by Palestinians and other interested groups. Some commentators have contended this has boosted flagging support for Hamas, who had supported the report. Even the United States had voiced concern over the unity agreement, as it would undermine its efforts to broker a peace deal between the West Bank and Israel. In the end, the people that will stand to benefit most from a Fatah/Hamas reconciliation will be the Palestinian’s and they are the ones currently suffering the most from the split. BM
