CAIRO: Bikyamasr.com's analysis of the figures officially released to date for the first phase of the Egyptian elections suggests that the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and its allies in the Democratic Alliance may gain as many as half the available seats in the nation's parliament. The FJP seems likely to take 76-85 of the 168 seats at stake, with 33-38 going to the Salafi Nour Party and its allies, 16-18 to the liberal and centre-left Egyptian Bloc, 12 to the right-leaning liberal al-Wafd party, 5 to the mainly left-leaning Revolution Continues alliance, 4 to Wasat, and up to 9 to members of the formerly ruling National Democratic Party. The FJP has gained 36.7 percent of the list system votes, with 24.4 percent for Nour, 13.4 percent for the Egyptian Bloc, 7.1 percent for the right-leaning liberal Wafd party, 4.3 percent for the moderate Islamist Wasat Party, and 3.4 percent for the Revolution Continues. Parties made up largely of ex-NDP members won 7.4 percent of the vote. There are 112 seats due to be allocated on the results of the first round list of votes. FJP candidates are also in the contest for 43 of the 52 seats where a re-run between the top-placed is being held on Monday and Tuesday. The party's candidates are in the lead in 30 of these contests, with the Nour party leading in another 9. The exact procedure to be used for allocating the list-system seats remains unclear, but Bikyamasr.com has analysed the official list results published by the Supreme Electoral Committee to estimate the result if, as appears likely, the ‘highest remainder' proportional representation system is used. The features and implications of this system are described by David Jandura on the Monkey Page political science blog. Assuming that this system is used and that the voting figures published by the Supreme Electoral Committee are the correct figures, Bikyamasr.com calculates that the first round list system seats will break down as follows: Total first round list seats: 112 Democratic Alliance (FJP and allies): 44 Nour and allies (Salafis and Gamaa Islamiyya): 28 Egyptian Bloc (liberal and centre-left): 16 Al-Wafd Party: 11 Revolution Continues (left and revolutionaries): 4 Wasat (moderate Islamist): 4 Ex-NDP parties: 5 These estimates must be taken with caution as the use of a different proportional representation system could considerably change the allocation of seats. In addition, the results from Cairo's first district have been annulled by the Supreme Administrative Court, and the elections there will be re-run in January. However, the results from the annulled elections have been used for the purposes of this analysis. Broken down into broad political blocs, the list system votes saw 41.6% of voters choosing FJP-backed and other moderate Islamist candidates, while 26.5% voted for broadly secular parties, mainly the Egyptian Bloc and the Wafd, 24.4% opted for the hardline Islamists of Nour and the Salafi bloc, and 7.45% voted for parties largely composed of ex-NDP members. Given that this is Egypt's first free election, there is no experience on which to predict the outcome of the re-runs for the remaining 52 individual seats, after only four were filled in the first round of voting (two of them going to the FJP). The Freedom and Justice Party is contesting 43 of the 52 seats. In 25, it is facing off against Nour, in 7 against the Egyptian Bloc, and in 11 against individuals or ex-NDP candidates. It is impossible to say whether voters for the more secular parties may vote for the FJP to keep Nour out, although it seems reasonable to imagine that at least some Nour voters may vote for FJP candidates standing against Egyptian Bloc candidates. There are no official figures for the votes gained in the first round by candidates who did not make it through to the re-run, so it is hard to judge the overall balance of forces in these contests. No figures at all have been provided for Cairo's fifth (Al-Salaam) district. Assuming that the lead candidate manages to stay ahead in every case, the FJP and its allies stand to pick up at least 31 of the seats at stake, as against 9 for Nour, 4 for ex-NDP members, 2 for the Egyptian Bloc, 1 for the Justice Party and 1 for the Wafd. However, if the FJP benefits from its position in what has turned out to be the centre ground of Egypt's new political spectrum, and attracts enough additional support to overcome Nour and liberal candidates where their lead is slender, it would stand to gain up to 37 of the 52 seats. That would mean, if our predictions for the list seats are borne out, that the FJP is likely to gain between 76-85 of the total 168 seats at stake, with 33-38 going to Nour and its allies, 16-18 to the Egyptian Bloc, 12 to the Wafd, 5 to the Revolution Continues alliance, 4 to Wasat, and up to 9 to ex-NDP members. The FJP may, of course, do even better than this. So far reports indicate that turn-out in the re-runs is low. Again there is no experience on the basis of which to estimate what this may mean for the results, but logically low turn-out would favor the more organized parties, who have the means of ensuring that as many of their voters as possible get to the polls. No party in these elections is better organized than the FJP. The FJP is very conscious that its conspicuous victory in the elections, coupled with the less widely-expected success of the more hardline Salafi parties, causes concern to some elements in Egyptian society as well as to certain foreign powers. In the first lengthy interview by a senior party leader after the initial election results became known, FJP president Muhammad Mursi, speaking to presenter Wael El-Ebrashi on Dream TV last Thursday, suggested that predictions that the party would form an Islamic coalition with the Salafi parties were scaremongering. “The FJP is in an alliance with ten or so other parties, including liberals, leftists, nationalists, in the Democratic Alliance for Egypt. The Salafi Nour party is also in an alliance with a group of other parties. Why should we now come and say, we'll join up in a way that perhaps doesn't reflect reality to any degree, but might frighten people and make them worry that the Islamists are all getting together? “Parliaments all over the world, and in Egypt too, don't take shape on the basis of ideology, they take shape on the basis of political proposals, ideas and visions.” Mursi also denied having said that the FJP would seek to form a government on the basis of the new parliamentary majority, saying that the most important thing was that the SCAF, in its role as collective president, the new parliament, and the government should all cooperate closely in the transitional period. The parliament's views, he said, would however have to be taken into account in the formation of a government. In the longer term, the FJP saw a mixed parliamentary presidential system as the best choice for Egypt. 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