SANA'A: Only a day after a historical signature which ended 33 years of autocracy, Yemen is still on the brink of a precipice; with many factions threatening not only its stability and that of the region but also its very structure, for many groups are clamoring for independence. To makes matters worse, the Youth which gave birth to the popular uprising is rejecting the power-transfer deal which the political factions agreed upon with the regime as it includes an immunity clause in favor of President Saleh, his family and close aides. Several activists have already announced that they would continue on the fight, adding “today our Revolution starts”. Over the past 11 months many political, tribal and regional factions have emerged out of the woodwork, wanting to use the power-vacuum to their advantage. Now that Yemen is said to be transitioning many might try to seize power and impose their rule over the country. General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar For 3 decades Gen. Mohsen was one of Saleh's most trusted military men and ally, as well as staunched defender of the regime as it allowed him to build up a fortune estimated to several tens of millions of dollars. Interestingly, it was the General who first jumped ship in March declaring his allegiance to the revolution. Many argued that the General was essentially looking after his own interest as he saw several dictators fall from grace in a matter of weeks in Egypt and Tunisia. Although Mohsen did kept his word by defending the protesters from the government attacks, many protesters and activists are now worry that he might try to use his troops to favor his rise to power, imposing a military rule over Yemen. Already several protesters have been arrested by the General troops and others beaten up as they stood against al-Islah members, accusing them of high-jacking the revolution. Such allegations are not exactly new. However since the revolution needed some strong back up at the time, the Youth preferred to turn a blind eye, putting in practice the “enemy of my enemy is my friend”. Now the at the dynamic has changed, Yemen might discover Mohsen's new face. Al-Ahmar Clan Hameed al-Ahmar, Yemen's most prominent businessman and brother to powerful tribal chief leader of the Hasheed, is well-known for his presidential ambitions and his hatred of the Saleh for they hold the keys of Yemen. Hameed has been since the beginning of the uprising trying to portray himself as a man of the people, for the people who has the abilities to solve the country's many problems as well as the means to rally around Yemen's factions and maintain stability. A high ranking member of al-Islah, Hameed and his brothers have been pushing their party front and center, promoting a new positive and popular image of Yemen's most powerful political party of the opposition, hoping to gain access to the “keys of the kingdom” and finally add to their list of trophies, the presidency. At the head of a vast tribal army, al-Ahmar brothers might end up being the sore losers of the revolution, as democratic institutions will stand in the way of their Islamic ideology and their claim over Yemen as Sheikh. Disappointment many fear could lead to an attempt to take over by the tribes, as their Sheikhs will try to impose their rule over the people. Al-Houthis The Shia rebels whom since 2004 have been sporadically fighting off the government in the Sa'ada province, north of Yemen; have since the beginning of the uprising resumed their expansion campaign by seizing control over more territories in the region. Today the group announced that they did not recognize the GCC agreement, claiming that they would pursue their bid for independence. Al-Houthis are favorable to a return of the rule of the Imams. Security analysts have warned that the group posed a great threat to stability in the northern region of Yemen as well as the entire Arabic Peninsula for they were supported by Iran. The Secessionist For an entire decade al-Harak has been waiting for the opportunity to reclaim its independence from the north, arguing that South Yemen would be better off alone. Now that Saleh is gone, the secessionist might try to use force, engulfing Yemen in yet another war. With its complicated historical, social and political make up, Yemen will certainly have to overcome many upheavals before moving towards recovery. To start with the political class will have to work at re-establishing lost trust in between the people and the state institutions. BM
