The Israeli government must have breathed a sigh of relief that the announcement that Hosni Mubarak had instructed Egypt's Military Supreme Council to run the country came conveniently just after sundown, the start of the weekly Jewish Shabbat shut-down. Barring any major new event, the first formal Israeli reaction is to be expected on Sunday. In the absence of an official Israeli comment [which should come only from Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, according to a media black-out he imposed], a “senior Israeli official” told Haaretz that “It's too early to foresee how [the resignation] will affect things … We hope that the change to democracy in Egypt will happen without violence and that the peace accord [the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty] will remain.” This is the first concern of the Israeli government. The Haaretz story noted that “Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of an Iranian-style Islamist revolution in Egypt should Mubarak's Muslim Brotherhood rivals eventually take over”. And, it reported that “there were reports of fireworks going off in Arab villages throughout the northern part of the country.” The Arab/Palestinian Deputy Speaker of the Israeli Knesset, Ahmed Tibi of the Ra`am-Ta`al Party said in a phone interview with Bikya Masr that “From Day One, we supported this uprising's demand for social justice, freedom and liberty … We were all waiting to see this positive reaction, an we admire this youth and the way they brought about this change. And, I hope that this change that came from Tahrir Square – this ‘Tahrirization' – will hit many Arab capitals ruled by oppressive regimes.” Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak – who effectively rules the occupied West Bank (and who is one of Israel's four Deputy Prime Ministers), met with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon in New York on Thursday, and the situation in Egypt was one of the issues discussed. In comments after the meeting, Barak said “We have to continue the whole time to look for ways to move forward in this new reality because the alternatives are more complicated, more complex and more dangerous from any other option.” Barak said he would not respond to questions about what is happening in Egypt, but he did note, according to the report in the Jerusalem Post, that “it's up to the Egyptian people to find a way and to do it according with their own constitution, norms and practices”, though, he noted, the recent events in Egypt and North Africa make a lot of Israelis “feel weak-kneed”. He did say, to reassure his countrymen, that “Israel is strong, although we do have to follow things very carefully and make sure that Israel remains strong and to upgrade our security situation.” One of Israel's former ambassadors to Egypt, Zvi Mazel, said “Egypt is no longer a superpower … Egypt has completely lost its status in the area, while Turkey and Iran are on the way up. It's a different world”. Mazel's remarks are reported on Israel's YNet website, the English-language version of the country's most popular Hebrew-language newspaper. Mazel added that “From a strategic point of view, Israel is now facing a hostile situation … The next stage is disbanding parliament, as the people won't accept a parliament based on fraud, and holding new elections. Naturally, the opposition will also want to run in these elections and will ask for a longer period of time to gain recognition. The Muslim Brotherhood will take action as well, of course.” However, Mazel did play down fears of a looming takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood: “At this stage the army is anti-Muslim Brotherhood. They did some screening to let in as few (Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers) as possible, and they won't let them rise.” Mazel said that “General Tantawi has been appointed chairman of the Higher Military Council, making him the ‘de facto' temporary president. He is a well-known person who never even thought about running for president. In any event, there is no longer a familiar legitimate governmental framework in Egypt … (Tantawi) is okay, but the strategic situation comprises forces we are unfamiliar with. The army will likely maintain the peace agreement, but there will be developments we cannot foresee at this time”. Israel's former long-serving minister (in various posts), Binyamin “Fouad” Ben Eliezer (originally from Iraq) – who is no longer in government after his recently resignation from the Labor Party in a dispute with Ehud Barak – said that he had spoken with Husni Mubarak on the phone for 20 minutes on Thursday. Ben Eliezer told Israel television, according to reports, that “(Mubarak) was looking for an honorable way out … He repeated the sentence, ‘I have been serving my country, Egypt, for 61 years. Do they want me to run away? I won't run away. Do they want to throw me out? I won't leave. If need be, I will be killed here'.” Ben-Eliezer also said that Mubarak “had very tough things to say about the United States … He gave me a lesson in democracy and said: ‘We see the democracy the US spearheaded in Iran and with Hamas, in Gaza, and that's the fate of the Middle East … They may be talking about democracy but they don't know what they're talking about and the result will be extremism and radical Islam', he quoted Mubarak as saying. This report can be read in full here. However, Haaretz journalist Avi Issacharoff wrote in an opinion piece published today here that “Israeli nightmare scenarios notwithstanding, Hosni Mubarak finished his career after 30 years without a violent revolution or assassination attempt by Egyptian Islamists. Mubarak is stepping down from the position of president because of popular protests that stirred the excitement of millions of young people”. In a more acidic piece, Jerusalem Post columnist Larry Derfner wrote that “We love democracy, we want democracy for everyone, certainly for our Arab neighbors, and we hate dictatorship, of course – we're just very worried about our security, and we have a right to be. That's Israel's message to the world these days, and half of it is true – we do have legitimate worries for our security with what‘s going on in Egypt. The part that isn't true is that Israel stands for democracy and against dictatorship in the world. Within the Green Line, yes, but anywhere beyond – not only in the Middle East, but throughout black Africa, Asia and Latin America – democracy has been absolutely irrelevant for Israeli foreign policy since the 1970s, and so has dictatorship. Throughout the Third World, for 40 years, the only question our political and military leadership – together with our private arms dealers and “security advisers” – have asked is this: In terms of political and economic profit, what's in it for us?”. Derfner added, “There are times when Israel will support the forces of democracy against dictators … [when] the dictators being challenged had something in common: They were all enemies of Israel. We have no problem supporting dictators or opposing democrats, all that matters (except for the money, especially for our private mercenaries) is that you be our enemy's enemy. If you are, whoever you are, we will be your friend. This has been the guiding principle of Israeli policy in the Third World since the 1970s, and it is our guiding principle today in Egypt. Democracy is for speeches”. Derfner concluded: “Since the day after the Six Day War, the day we became tyrants [by becoming the Palestinians' masters], we stand for nothing but ourselves. And while we have the right to our worries, while that's part of the story of why the incredibly brave people in Egypt inspire just about everyone in the world except us, our deadened conscience is also part of the story – a bigger part than we want to admit”. This commentary is published here. Meanwhile, in another piece published this weekend by the Jerusalem Post, David Horvitz wrote up his recent conversation with Natan Sharansky (head of the Jewish Agency), who was freed from Soviet imprisonment in the Siberian gulag 25 years ago. In the interview, Sharansky said: “people in all cultures under dictatorship become double-thinkers. They live in fear. And they don't want to live in fear. So when they have a choice to end that, they make that choice. This double-think, this state of fear, and this desire to get out of fear, is exactly what we see today in the Middle East. All people want to be free … What brought them to the streets [in Egypt] was that they didn't want to continue living in a fear society, a society in which people who stand up against Hosni Mubarak finish in prison. People like my friend [human rights activist] Saad Eddin Ibrahim, who said 10 years ago that Mubarak would put his son [Gamal] in power after him, went to prison, and would still be there were it not for intervention of [the West, and notably] president George W. Bush. There are always very few dissidents. But the moment people stop feeling afraid, suddenly there are millions of them”. Sharansky said: “In Egypt, five years ago, for example, the editor of a newspaper was simply dragged out of the city and left naked and told not to dare publish one more article against Mubarak. Saad Eddin Ibrahim, likewise, said on the record that elections would be irrelevant, that the next president would be Mubarak's son. He was arrested the next day. That's what happens on the top. That means that, on the lower level, people must constantly control themselves – what they can and can't say. It's a very uncomfortable life. If you can get rid of it without risking your life, you try to do that”. On the Muslim Brotherhood, Sharansky said that “The free world is lucky here in two respects. First, that what happened in Egypt happened when the Muslim Brotherhood is not yet strong enough [to sweep into power]. The longer there is dictatorship, the longer the free world helps to destroy all democratic dissent, the stronger the Muslim Brotherhood becomes … So it is good that this is all happening now in Egypt when the Muslim Brotherhood is not strong enough. And secondly, it is good that it is happening in an Egypt that gets the second biggest foreign aid package from the United States [after Israel]. America has a lot of leverage, a lot of linkage for any future Egyptian leader. Whoever will be the leader of Egypt, if he wants to solve problems, he will be very dependent on the free world. He will not go to Iran for help … This [untenable] pact between the free world and a bunch of dictators ostensibly bringing us stability was not broken by the free world. It was broken by the people in the streets. We have to go with this. This is the chance … It depends on us now. On the Arab side, they made their stand. The people made their stand, showing that ‘we're here', that ‘those who thought freedom is not for us, well, it is for us' … The role of the free world is that there must be real cooperation with this desire of people not to live in fear — whoever these people are … If the free world helps the people on the streets, and turns into the allies of these people instead of being the allies of the dictators, then there is a unique chance to build a new pact between the free world and the Arab world. And we, Israel, will be among the beneficiaries, simply because these people will then be dealing with their real problems”. Sharansky also suggested that democratic reform was also needed in Israel, “We should never stop, not for a moment, relying on the strength of the IDF, but this is the only chance [for a true change]. For all the so-called peace process, we are more and more dependent on the IDF… on our capabilities in war. I don't think that we have to weaken. But the only chance to create something whereby we'll be less dependent on our military power is to give a chance to democratic reforms … Maybe this is the moment to try to put our trust in freedom … [L]et's be glad that what's happening now on the Arab street is happening before the Muslim Brothers control the entire Middle East, and that could be the direction. Let's be glad that it is happening in countries which are still very dependent on the free world. And let's try to see whether, finally, we can find new ways for a peace process, and not only a process that depends fully on one thing – on the strength of the IDF”. This interview with Natan Sharansky is published here. BM
