There were plenty of surprises on the domestic scene in 2004. Did it make a difference? Al-Ahram Weekly takes stock 2004 ended with a diplomatic shock: after a year of what appeared to be souring Egyptian relations with Israel, in December ties between the two suddenly seemed to have gotten considerably warmer. Over the past 12 months, as Israel escalated its brutal attacks on Palestinians, there had been much anger and condemnation emerging from Cairo. In October Egypt suffered collateral damage from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict when the Taba Hilton Hotel was bombed by a group of Egyptians led by a Palestinian. In November three Rafah border policemen were "accidentally" killed by Israeli occupation forces who thought they were Palestinian "terrorists". Who would have predicted that just a few weeks later Egypt would release Israeli spy Azzam Azzam, a man whom Cairo had repeatedly said would serve his full 15-year prison sentence? Or that a major economic partnership -- the QIZ agreement -- would be signed with the US and Israel? Or that President Hosni Mubarak would refer to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon as a man who could make peace? Although these rapid-fire changes made considerable headlines (and confused and angered many in the process) the main theme of 2004 was change. Reform was the year's buzz word, even though many were sceptical of rosy announcements that Egypt was well on its way to a more liberal political and economic climate. First came the government reshuffle which, for the first time since Mubarak came to power in 1981, included a technocrat as prime minister as well as a great many relatively young "reformists". Another major shift was the unexpected legalisation of political parties, with promises of more to come. A national council for human rights was also formed, counting among its members several prominent public figures. The ruling National Democratic Party announced that it was adopting "new thinking" and invited opposition parties to a national dialogue. What it refused to do, however, was discuss amending the constitution, changing the way the president was elected or ending the 23-year-old emergency law -- all opposition demands. There was a visibly different dynamic in play nonetheless: for the first time the government allowed Egyptians to hold a public rally against another presidential term for Mubarak and the concept of hereditary succession. Meanwhile the banned Muslim Brotherhood -- Egypt's largest opposition group -- remains banned. In fact, as the year ended, Mubarak drew attention to the group's terrorist past. The new parties seemed just as ineffective as their older counterparts, mainly proving their existence through newspapers that shouted a lot but didn't really make any difference on the ground. The Human Rights Council has yet to prove its seriousness, while other non-governmental and international human rights organisations continue to record serious violations. Pragmatic diplomacy 2004 SAW a thaw in Cairo's relations with Tel Aviv. Despite public apprehension Egypt had clearly decided that maintaining the cold peace at such a frosty temperature was no longer in Egypt's interests, certainly not at a time when Cairo was seeking to upscale its involvement in crisis management in the Middle East, and when the US has made it clear that any free trade agreement would hinge on a good dose of anti-freeze. So, as a consequence, Egypt signed a Qualified Industrial Zone agreement with the US and Israel, freed convicted Israeli spy Azzam Azzam half way through his sentence, and is considering appointing a new ambassador to Tel Aviv just in time for the new secretary of state's visit to meet senior Egyptian officials. Containing potentially explosive regional problems was perhaps the major challenge faced by Egyptian diplomacy this year. Death and destruction became facts of daily life in Iraq under occupation, while Israel seemed intent on upping its already intolerable repression of the Palestinians. Slap bang in the middle of a highly troubled region, and with its own economy being blown off course Egypt worked to contain the rumbling crises and sought to promote, as best as it could, stability. Not an easy task when Syria was being harassed, militarily and otherwise, by Israel and the US and when Iran and Turkey were under increasing pressure from the US to pursue alternative modes of rule, economic organisation, education, human rights and even religious institutions. The situation in Africa is no better. Sudan could still fragment, squabbles between north African states continue, as do those between the countries of the Nile Basin. Egyptian mediation increased on the Palestinian- Israeli and Palestinian-Palestinian fronts, and intensive political and intelligence support has been offered to the new Palestinian leadership. Cairo also pushed to urge Washington and the interim ruling government in Baghdad to show more sensitivity to the concerns of Iraqis and adopt a less heavy- handed approach amid concerns that the interim government is not doing enough to draw a line under the kind of practices that were exposed, most notoriously, at Abu Ghraib. Cairo offered a franker than average advice to Damascus to bow to the storm. It encouraged Khartoum to demonstrate flexibility in the face of the demands made by both opposition groups and by Washington and other states concerning ethnic, human and political rights in Sudan. Meanwhile Cairo has been paying increasing attention to the situation in North Africa, and particularly to the countries of the Nile Basin. Indeed, the mandate assigned by President Hosni Mubarak to the new Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit was to secure a higher profile for Egyptian diplomacy in the management of these explosive crises. Horror in Sinai ONE of the most shocking domestic events this year was the 7 October Taba attacks that claimed 34 Egyptian, Israeli, Italian and Russian lives. The Egyptian public was shocked not only because the blasts happened in Egypt but because of revelations of the numbers of Israeli tourists who holidayed in Sinai. On the day of the attack, which coincided with the week-long Jewish holiday of Sukkot, an estimated 30,000 Israelis had arrived in Egypt, of whom 15,000 were in Sinai on the night of the Hilton Taba, Tarabeen and Ras Shitan blasts. As Egyptians switched on their televisions to learn more about the incident, images of Israeli rescue workers flooded the screens, leaving the public wondering where the Egyptian authorities where. The government, however, reserved the right to conduct an investigation into who was behind the attacks. Weeks of speculation followed, as Al- Qaeda, Mossad and hitherto unknown groups of Egyptians and Palestinians were named as suspects. On 25 October the Interior Ministry announced the results of their investigation into the blasts. Nine suspects -- one Palestinian and eight Egyptians -- were said to have been behind the attacks. Two were killed during the blasts, five were arrested and two remain at large. In the face of the secrecy surrounding the official investigations many remained sceptical of the results. Neither the Interior Ministry nor state security showed willing to provide any details of their investigations until the sudden announcement of the names of the perpetrators' identities. According to human rights organisations some 5,000 North Sinai residents were arrested in the course of the investigations, many of whom were allegedly tortured. Tourism, though, seemed relatively unscathed, though measures were taken to encourage the return of Israeli holiday-makers who, it was announced, would no longer be subject to arrival tax if they travelled by land. A reforming cabinet AFTER recovering from a back surgery last July President Hosni Mubarak surprised political observers by appointing 52-year-old Ahmed Nazif as the new prime minister. Nazif's new cabinet contained 15 ministers from the previous government, three of whom were given new portfolios, and 14 newcomers. Nazif, 20 years younger than his predecessor Atef Ebeid, established his reputation for efficiency as telecommunications minister in the latter's cabinet, and was a leading member of the National Democratic Party's Policy Committee, led by Gamal Mubarak. Eight members of the Policy Committee were appointed to his cabinet, including Youssef Boutros-Ghali at the Finance Ministry, Mahmoud Mohieddin as minister of investment and Rasheed Mohamed Rasheed as minister of industry and commerce. Nazif's cabinet reshuffle saw several members of the old guard stripped of long-held portfolios. Hussein Kamel Bahaaeddin was removed from education, and Youssef Wali from agriculture. Wali, a former prime minister, is expected to face interrogation by the prosecutor-general after a Cairo court charged him last week with authorising the use of carcinogenic pesticides. Nazif's new team, particularly those holding economic portfolios, has been greeted with optimism by the business community. The team vowed to turn the NDP's package of liberal- oriented economic reforms into a reality, and have, in the five months since they took office, pursued that goal with a vengeance. In an attempt to kick-start the economy tax and tariff regimes have been subjected to a radical overhaul. Other reform goals include moving the privatisation programme forward. The Investment Minister Mahmoud Mohieddin, took charge of restructuring the General Authority for Investment, introducing a new management team, the vast majority drawn from the business community. The Nazif government also signed the controversial QIZ agreement with the US and Israel, throwing a lifeline to the ailing textile industry. Delivering his government's policy statement on 19 December Nazif revealed yet more reforms, many aimed at broadening the scope of political and economic freedoms in 2005. New look NDP THE RISE of the president's 41-year-old son, Gamal Mubarak, within the NDP continued apace in 2004. During the party's three-day annual conference in September, Gamal Mubarak emerged at the forefront of the reforming wing, spearheading a campaign aimed at modernising the party and injecting it with new ideas ahead of the 2005 elections. Gamal Mubarak chairs the influential NDP Policy Committee, which many see as the engine driving reforms within the party. Speculation is rife that the younger Mubarak is being groomed for the presidency. That President Mubarak, 76, suffered health problems last summer saw feverish speculation over who would succeed. President Mubarak attempted to quash rumours, insisting that Egypt is a republic and that there is no hereditary transfer of power. In a press conference at the end of the NDP's annual conference Gamal Mubarak also denied presidential ambitions. President Mubarak is expected to run for a fifth presidential term in 2005. His candidacy will be endorsed by the People's Assembly next May and will be put to a referendum at the end of September or early October. During the NDP conference Gamal Mubarak led discussions on several key economic reform initiatives but did not address the demands of opposition parties for political reform which, the NDP announced, would form the subject of a national dialogue between the NDP and opposition parties at the end of next January. New tactics IN SEPTEMBER eight opposition parties put aside ideological differences to form an alliance to pressure for political and constitutional reform. The alliance brought together the liberal Wafd, leftist Tagammu, Islamist-oriented Labour Party, as well as the Nasserist, Al-Geel, Al- Umma, Misr 2000 and Al-Wefaq. The participating parties decided to communicate with the public directly by holding open rallies to discuss their reform agenda. No, said the Ministry of Interior, who turned down requests to hold seven such rallies on security grounds. Alliance members, not surprisingly, were annoyed at the refusals, accusing the Ministry of Interior of partisanship, and the cancellation of their rallies as an attempt by the NDP to do away with any rivals. Publically the NDP welcomed the opposition reform initiative, and expressed willingness to discuss it within the context of a national dialogue, though it remained strongly opposed to any constitutional amendments, arguing that now is not the time for such a step. The alliance made its participation in the proposed national dialogue conditional on the dialogue being conducted in public, and with the alliance as a whole rather than on a separate party basis. The Political Parties Committee, an affiliate of the Shura Council, licensed two new parties in 2004, the liberal Ghad Party and the Free Social Constitutional Party, bringing the number of political parties in Egypt to 19. Committee Chairman Safwat El-Sherif declared that other new parties are on the way. However, the two new parties -- not members of the opposition alliance -- appear to be adopting a pro-government stance. The Political Parties Committee, which for decades had refused to license dozens of applications, has shown itself less lenient towards Islamist-oriented groups. In October the committee rejected, for the third time since 1997, an application to legalise Al-Wasat, an Islamist- oriented group. Moreover, the Labour Party, which is Islamist- controlled, remains all but frozen following the May 2000 struggle over its chairmanship. Hard days for Muslim Brothers WHEN President Hosni Mubarak was asked by the German magazine Der Spiegel earlier this month how he would respond to the Muslim Brotherhood's attempts to form a political party and offer themselves as "a democratic alternative" his answer surprised no one. "No, the last thing our country needs is a group like the Muslim Brotherhood," the president opined. "They have a terrorist past, they killed a prime minister and others who did not agree with their political goals." While the president's statements summed up yet another turbulent year in the relationship between the outlawed group and the state it nonetheless raised fresh questions about the turn the relationship is likely to take in the coming year. For most Brotherhood leaders 2004 was an eventful year. The death of the group's supreme guide, Maamoun Al-Hodeibi, left many questioning the future of the banned group. Rumours of a power struggle between the group's old and young cadres were perhaps overplayed, and the succession was managed smoothly when 83-year-old Mahdi Akef was named the Brotherhood's sixth supreme guide. Brotherhood members appear to be counting on Akef's reputation as a moderate to ease tensions with the state. In March Akef announced the Brotherhood's own political reform initiative at the Press Syndicate, an event condemned by government officials. In May the Brotherhood suffered a blow when security forces arrested 54 members of the group in raids across seven governorates. Shortly afterwards the state accused the group of sending members abroad for military training and of plotting to overthrow the regime. The campaign reached a climax in September when the group's website was hacked and subsequently shut down. While the Interior Ministry dismissed any link with the closure of the website, the incident showed that, in the eyes of the regime, the group remained a security hazard. In 2005, as the presidential referendum and the parliamentary elections approach, the tension is likely to continue. Brotherhood sources say they expect further clampdowns to pre-empt any participation in the elections. Whether or not members will contest the elections is, reveal the sources, a decision that will be deferred until the last minute. Syndicate fears GOVERNMENT attempts to tighten its grip on professional syndicates peaked this year. Members of professional syndicates were surprised when, in November, the government introduced amendments to Law 100 governing syndicate elections. The draft law was viewed by syndicate members as designed to help the ruling National Democratic Party dominate professional syndicates. The proposed amendments have been described as being worse than Law 100, which many regard as undemocratic. Professional syndicates of all stripes have been campaigning to have the law abolished since it came into force in 1993 on the grounds that the conditions stipulated for staging elections are all but impossible to meet. Elections have not been held at most syndicates since 1992. Under the amendments to Law 100 the general assembly will be replaced by electoral committees. During syndicate elections members of the electoral committees will cast their votes, leaving thousands of other members as onlookers to the process. The Bar Association, controlled by the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, and with elections scheduled for February, is thought to be the real target of the draft. The aim, according to observers, is to marginalise Islamist lawyers and promote those more sympathetic to the government. Government officials have responded by pledging that the new draft, which will take months to be finalised, will not be passed against the wishes of professional syndicate members. Yet despite the pledge, many lawyers anticipate that the government will use legal loopholes to delay elections until the legislation is ratified. The government promised this year to lift the judicial sequestration imposed upon the Islamist-controlled Engineers Syndicate Council since 1995 and to stage elections soon. Few expect that the vote will take place before the endorsement of the new draft. Mixed picture THE ESTABLISHING of the National Council for Human Rights (NCHR) in January was repeatedly cited by government officials as evidence of political reform. The 25-member board, chaired by Boutros Ghali and appointed by the Shura Council, has yet to do anything to convince observers that it is more than a window dressing tactic. It will, however, submit its first-ever report on human rights next February amid many expectations that it will call for an end to state of emergency laws, demand improved prison conditions and request the release of the large numbers detained without official charges or trial. Human rights organisations, which report regularly on violations in Egypt, remain sceptical of the NCHR's mandate. On 9 June Akram Zuheiri, a 40-year-old member of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, died while in police custody. The Interior Ministry denied allegations that Zuheiri was tortured, though witnesses told his family and the Brotherhood otherwise. A report released by the Egyptian Association Against Torture (EAAT) during the same month revealed "cases of brutal and inhumane torture which constitute a serious breach of human rights". In November three Egyptian human rights organisations released a report claiming that 5,000 North Sinai residents had been detained and tortured as part of the investigations in the Taba blasts that killed 34 people on 7 October. On 10 December, International Human Rights Day, police prevented 200 Egyptian and foreign activists from travelling to Rafah to provide Palestinians with humanitarian relief. Human Rights Watch called the incident a sad day for human rights in Egypt. Positive steps DURING the NDP conference President Mubarak announced the government's intention to amend the nationality law to allow individuals born to Egyptian mothers and non- Egyptian fathers to become Egyptian citizens. Egyptian women have hitherto been unable to pass their nationality on to their children. Responding to Mubarak's call the justice minister established a high-level committee, including representatives from both the Interior Ministry and the National Council for Women (NCW), to work on amending the law. Up to one million individuals, from 468,000 families, are now eligible to become Egyptian citizens. After some debate it was further decided that the children of Palestinian fathers, previously excluded on the grounds that the Arab League decree No. 1547 for the year 1959 calls for the preservation of Palestinian identity, would be covered by the legislation. 2004 also saw the establishing of new family courts, specialised in cases involving family disputes. They are supervised by a panel of three judges, one of whom must be a woman. The family courts are intended to be a "one stop shop" combining courtroom facilities with services and programmes intended to assist families in resolving disputes. Each family court includes a sociologist and a psychologist who act as mediators and counsellors. Disasters THE YEAR 2004 began with tragedy when a Boeing 737, operated by a private airline, FlashAir, plunged into the Red Sea on 3 January, killing all 148 people on board. The plane went down just a few minutes after taking off from Sharm El-Sheikh airport en route to Cairo and then Paris. One-hundred-thirty-three French passengers, one Moroccan and one Japanese passenger, and 13 Egyptian crew members perished in the accident, which officials were quick to blame on a "technical failure", an assumption that proved to be accurate. The plane disappeared from the radar four minutes after taking off. Radar readings showed that the doomed charter flight climbed to 5,000 feet and made a planned left turn before plunging into the sea. No distress signals were received from the pilot before the crash. The search for survivors by Egyptian navy rescue units and aircraft was in vain. The French government sent a submarine, a frigate and three helicopters. The plane's two black boxes were found 3,000 feet below the surface and debris was found seven kilometres south of the airport. Towards the end of the year -- October and November -- Egypt was invaded by swarms of locusts, threatening crops and raising panic. In mid-November they hit Cairo. Experts warned at the time the damage might be enormous. A swarm of 400 million locusts can eat 80,000 tonnes of crops, enough to feed 20 million people. Ministry of Agriculture officials were quick to deny the possibility of disaster and insisted the situation was under control. The government has refused to disclose the extent of damage but sources claim over LE150 million was spent on spray operations. With infestations reported in 15 governorates, the Land Centre for Human Rights claimed that 38 per cent of the nation's crops had been damaged. Experts have warned that Egypt could become a breeding ground for locusts rather than a transit area, and have not yet ruled out the re-appearance of the insects. Not that locusts are the only insect threat. Reports in late November revealed that Alexandria was infested with huge numbers of termites that were eating away at the city's furniture. Some LE28 million worth of damage is caused by termites annually in Egypt, it is estimated.
