Tuesday will see newly installed IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath present the first World Economic Outlook (WEO) produced on her watch. She will represent her outlook during the joint gathering of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank a taking place in Washington. Appointed by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde last fall, Gopinath is the first woman to lead the fund's research department in its seven-decade history. “We expect continuity from previous WEOs,” Torsten Slok, chief economist with Deutsche Bank, told Al Jazeera. “The [analytical] chapters are always interesting because they are always very well done, and on top of that, they reveal what policymakers are thinking about.” Last week, Lagarde indicated the IMF's forecasts for global growth would likely be further revised downward, telling an audience at the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington that the global economy is in “a delicate moment”. Though Lagarde said growth could improve in the second half of this year and early 2020, she warned that there are “clear downside risks” including the United Kingdom's proposed exit from the European Union, high levels of global debt, “jittery” financial markets and trade tensions. The recent slowdown in global trade is already spreading pain to European and most Asian economies. “The ongoing trade war is a very important topic not only because of its impact on the G7 countries but also because trade and trade policy is very important for emerging markets,” said Slok. Last Wednesday, the IMF released research forecasting the possible consequences of an escalation in the ongoing US-China tit-for-tat trade dispute. The IMF warned that if the US and China were to increase tariffs by 25 percent on all goods flowing between the two countries, both economies would suffer “sizeable” losses in manufacturing.
