The delay in Egypt's IMF tranche is not just bureaucratic slippage. It is a real contest between two forces: political leverage and economic necessity. Political leverage is prevailing. In this reading, the IMF is not simply waiting for technical reforms but is using the delay as pressure. Cairo is expected to deliver not only on economic steps — such as exchange rate liberalisation and faster privatisation — but also on regional positions: a clearer role in Gaza, tighter control of Red Sea routes, and closer alignment with Gulf and US allies. Under this scenario, disbursement before December seems unlikely, since the pause is designed to ensure compliance on both economic and geopolitical fronts. Economic necessity, however, may assert itself. The cost of delay is punishing: the pound is under severe pressure, inflation is eroding the middle class, and heavy domestic borrowing is inflating debt. Prolonging the status quo risks financial and social destabilisation with direct regional spillovers. Neither the IMF nor its shareholders want that outcome. If Cairo delivers credible reforms — including transparent privatisations, concrete FX measures, and improved disclosure — the Fund may accelerate disbursement before December to head off deeper risks. Egypt cannot remain passive. It can rally Gulf allies on the IMF board, elevate negotiations to the political level, and shape the international narrative by highlighting the social costs of delay. At home, accelerating reforms would send signals that markets and the Fund cannot ignore. The outcome is not settled. If politics dominates, disbursement will slip to December. If economic necessity forces the issue, funds could flow sooner. Cairo still has room to shape the balance — if it matches political leverage with credible economic action.
