Egypt's Central Bank expects real GDP growth to rebound to 4.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2024/25, up from 2.4 per cent in 2023/24. This marks a gradual recovery from two years of subdued economic activity. The forecast was published in the Bank's Monetary Policy Report for Q1 2025, released on Monday. The anticipated recovery is largely driven by a rebound in manufacturing, supported by improvements in foreign exchange market conditions. The Bank said the unification of the FX market has enhanced firms' access to imported raw materials and intermediate goods needed for production. Growth is also expected to benefit from improved performance in the extractions sector. New onshore and offshore discoveries are projected to boost Egypt's crude oil and natural gas output. Looking ahead, the CBE projects growth to reach 4.8 per cent in 2025/26. However, output is still expected to remain below potential, with the output gap remaining negative until the end of that fiscal year. The bank noted that the subdued demand environment, along with a tight monetary stance, supports its forecast of continued disinflation over the medium term. Attribution: Amwal Al Ghad English Subediting: M. S. Salama
