House prices are set to rise in six of the seven European countries surveyed in Fitch Ratings' latest Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook, with variations in growth across markets. French house prices are expected to bottom out in 2025 after a projected 3 per cent decline this year. In the Netherlands, strong demand driven by falling mortgage rates, income growth, and first-time buyer support is forecast to sustain price growth at 8-10 per cent, despite regulatory constraints. Spain's prices are projected to grow 4-6 per cent, benefiting from robust macroeconomic conditions. Germany will see accelerating price growth of 2-4 per cent, aided by rising rents making homeownership more attractive. The UK is expected to experience a modest slowdown, with prices rising 2-4 per cent, compared to an estimated 5 per cent in 2024, as mortgage rate cuts have already been priced in. Italy and Denmark are forecast to see low-single-digit price increases, with Denmark benefiting from taxation changes that have reduced housing demand volatility. Despite high debt-to-income ratios, the Danish market remains susceptible to economic shocks. Political uncertainty in France has slowed buyer activity, but housing shortages have prevented steeper declines. Meanwhile, new construction in France has hit a 27-year low due to high labour and material costs. Fitch anticipates stable arrears levels across markets, supported by income growth and prudent lending practices. Attribution: Fitch Subediting: M. S. Salama
