Damascus -- Despite much talk about Syria's immunity to change, the path of events in the Arab nation now beset by widespread unrest differs little from the revolts in Tunisia or Egypt, experts say. It remains to be seen whether demonstrations racking the country for the past five weeks will culminate in a similar outcome. Analysts also question the impact such a change in leadership will bring to the region. There are a few, albeit key, differences that make the Alawite regime more resilient to internal reform pressure. The Syrian Republican Guard and mukhabarat (intelligence services) operate under the respective leadership of the brother and brother-in-law of President Bashar al-Assad. The military command rests with a few Alawite generals, whose fate is inextricably linked with that of the president, analysts say. Moreover, many consider Assad's popularity to be high among his people, particularly for his staunch anti-Israel stance. Circumstances, however, have been hard economically for Syria. International diplomatic isolation and economic embargo have prevented the nation from becoming a competitive non-oil producing nation. Unlike Egypt, Syria failed to transform its geostrategic position as a key player in the Arab-Israeli conflict into a flood of external currency. Despite these drawbacks, Assad in recent years pursued a set of economic reforms to move a redistributive economy to an open market oriented one, opening the door to more individual freedoms while oppressing collective liberties. But the balance between detractors and supporters of Assad seems to still be on the side of the Assad, who inherited the presidency in 2000 from Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father and Syrian head of state for nearly thirty years. “I am a Christian, and sincerely I don't mind Bashar staying,” says Firaz, a young Syrian businessman. “But I have to say that his speech was an insult. I just want more freedom, and less repression in everyday life. This regime gives us stability and to be honest I am quite afraid of any Islamist jumping on the opportunity the void of power will give them.” Fayez Sara, Damascus-based writer and one of the main opposition figures to sign the 2005 Damascus Declaration, agrees. “We want real reform and not mere promises that have been done for many years without outcome,” he said. “We want the government to sit down with us and negotiate first. If this does not work, then we will call for revolution.” Sara is aware of the risks associated with voicing dissent. Contributing to list of personal arrests, last Wednesday he was imprisoned on yet another occasion. Repression at the hands of the regime and its security forces does not spare religious places either. Banned from public gatherings of more than five people -- one component of the much-despised emergency laws in place in the country since 1963 -- Syrians meet regularly on Fridays after prayers. At the mosque they are able to group in larger numbers and feel protected. “We were 400 at al-Rifai mosque, and a similar number than us came chanting slogans with Bashar's posters,” recalls one young Syrian. “We were afraid and stayed within the mosque for a couple of hours.” The man said the military came to the mosque and requested those inside to exit. The military, according to the man, promised safety to those who vacated the place of worship. Before those in attendance at the mosque stepped out, the violence broke. “The demonstrators turned out to be mukhabarat toting electrical batons and beating everyone young or old in their way. I was arrested and brought to a mukhabarat building,” the man, who was released later that day, said. “There was blood all over and a line of people waiting to be interrogated. We were all waiting in silence, and a group of around 100 men arrived with posters of Bashar, as if they were returning from a demonstration.” Although the expatriate Syrian opposition readily voices criticism of the regime, those on the ground in the country, those who have experienced torture and solitude in Syrian jails, must be significantly more discreet with their political activities. “We have to resort to private meetings,” says a young member of the Facebook group “Syrian Revolution 2011”. “We cannot use phones or emails because they are tapped. Dozens of friends have been arrested.” But as Syrians appear emboldened by the small degree of momentum they've gained in recent weeks, protests are also spilling onto university campuses. “A group of pro-Bashar demonstrators entered the campus {during one protest},” recounts a Syrian student who asked to not be identified for fear of reprisal. “We are very close to Deraa so a lot of students have a cousin, a friend or a brother who died in the crackdowns. The verbal escalation was neutralized when the dean decided to close the university that day.” Later, clashes erupted at Aleppo and Damascus universities. Accompanied by the increasing violence in the crackdowns, the inclusion of universities as hosts of dissent could accelerate the spread of the protests across the country. Friday was an ostensibly decisive day for the nation's unrest. After meeting with social leaders of Deraa, Douma and Banya -- cities most repressed in recent weeks -- Assad accepted certain demands of the opposition, adding to the set of concessions he promised the previous week. Then on Sunday, Assad, in a more conciliatory tone, announced he intends to lift the country's emergency laws. But Syrians returned to the streets in the thousands. Homs, a city of 700,000 people, has been the epicenter of conflict in recent days. After violent protests rocked the city, claiming a reported 17 lives on Sunday, residents staged a sit-in on Monday night to demand the regime's ouster. Rights groups claim Syrian forces opened fire and used tear gas to disperse the crowd. On Tuesday, according to the groups, Homs resembled a ghost town. Businesses closed and streets were vacant. Independent media is barred from entering the city. Events over the past five weeks remain murky as Syrian authorities have intimidated, arrested and expelled many international journalists. If President Assad continues to resort to cosmetic reforms, he will be following the same steps as former heads of state Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak. To break the same path and same fate, Assad must choose between real reform and repression before “the gap between state and citizens” becomes irreconcilable.
