The Institute of National Planning, which is headed by Dr. Fadia Abdel Salam, has predicted higher prices of red meat, fish and poultry worldwide if swine flu breaks out in the near future. It said that pigs meet 70% of the needs of European, American and Asian countries in terms of meat, and that the outbreak of the disease would mean they would turn to other sources of meat. It warned that once the disease increased, the World Health Organization (WHO) would declare it a global pandemic and this would negatively affect international trade, the transport of goods and travels.
It pointed out that in light of the current situation, the Egyptian General Authority for Veterinary Services has refused to give any further approval to the import of shipments of pig intestines, which are used to manufacture threads used in surgical operations, and pig hairs, which are used to produce shaving and painting brushes.
According to a recent study of the Institute about swine flu, there are some 30 diseases transmissible to humans through contact with pigs, especially for those who work in farms. The study has been prepared by Dr. Sahar Baha'i, an expert at the center for studies on investments and macro planning inside the Institute. The study affirms that more people would be unemployed as factories working with pork meat would be brought to a halt, as since the disease appeared in Egypt demand has stopped from hotels which had been dealing with pork meat outlets. The study also affirms that the spread of the disease might affect tourism, especially with the arrival of the disease in Egypt, Palestine and Israel. However, it says that no trips from Saudi Arabia have been cancelled but have indeed increased thanks to the discounts on trips from there (up to 50% for an economy).
The study says that according to the WHO no country is immune from the disease and expects it to spread from one city to another between 18 and 24 months and as a result affect almost a third of the world's population. It also expects some 1.5 billion people to look for medical care, while 30 million cases would need to be hospitalized. Furthermore, it points out that it would take between four to six months to produce a vaccine.
The study also points out that there is an Arab plan to cope with the disease. It consists in setting up an Arab observatory to monitor the disease and new cross-border illnesses as well as exchanging experiences.
As for the situation in Egypt, the study says the Egyptian government has raised the alert to the top level in all health facilities nationwide on April 28. It says that only four plants nationwide officially manufacture pork meat and that each of them produces some four tons of meat a week and employs between 30 and 40 workers. Yet, it mentions there are more unauthorized factories. The average production of pork meat in Egypt was some 1,500 tons between 2005 and 2007, namely about 0.2% of the total red meat production in the same period.
Beef and buffalo meat represented 85.2% of the entire production of red meat during the same period, while sheep and goat meat stood at 8.9%, and camels at 5.7%. This shows how little pork meat production is compared to the other kinds of meat.
In 2007, Egypt exported some 172 tons of frozen pork meat for $127,000, while it exported some 21 tons of boneless meat for $41,000.
That same year, Egypt imported about 89 tons of pork meat for $83,000, while it neither imported nor exported pork meat, or related products in 2005 and 2006.
